India’s Biggest Tech M&A Deal Hinges on Narrative Before Numbers

Coforge’s Encora acquisition tests whether AI-led positioning can outrun proof, as a mid-cap firm bets stock and scale on a recent generative pivot.

Krishnadevan V

iStock,com

Infrastructure Debt Funds: Another Missing Piece in Circular Green Finance

Green finance has plenty of tools, but debt remains stuck. Why Infrastructure Debt Funds could unlock circularity—and why their absence is holding back climate investment at scale.

Arvind Mayaram

Regulation for a No-Pause Financial System in a Fast-Moving Economy

India’s financial system cannot be governed by rear-view regulation. The RBI must move from rule-making to system design, balancing stability, innovation and trust.

Anupam Sonal

Opinion

SME Credit: Too Political to Fail, Too Risky to Fund

SME credit isn’t stalled for lack of schemes, but because banks are asked to lend politically and price risk commercially—an impossible mix that turns credit into entitlement and caution into policy failure.

R. Gurumurthy

State Anchor to Global Competitor

Privatising a flag carrier is never just a sale. From JAL’s bankruptcy reboot to Air India and PIA, the real test is whether the state can enforce discipline—and then step back.

Sharmila Chavaly

SEBI’s Quiet Rule Change May Redefine Retail Market Participation

SEBI’s new BSDA framework uses defaults to reduce retail costs while structurally pressuring depository and broker revenue models.

Krishnadevan V

How Three Invisible Layers of the Yen Carry Trade Shape Global Capital Flows

The yen is more than a currency. Its carry trade links monetary policy to global liquidity, risk sentiment, and cross-border capital movement, including India.

Chandrika Soyantar

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

TK Arun

Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay, trade expert & ex-IRS officer, works with Deloitte India and Ashoka University’s ICPP.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Sachin Malhotra

Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Consulting Editor at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.

The Bureau

Markets Turn Cautious on Year-End as Fed Debate and Ukraine Tensions Dominate

The Opportunity Hidden in New Zealand’s Import Basket

India-New Zealand Announce Conclusion of Free Trade Agreement Negotiation

India’s China Trade: Volatile Exports, Rising Import Dependence

MPC Finds Comfort in Benign Inflation, Reinforces Growth Momentum

MUFG Bank to Acquire 20% Stake in Shriram Finance For ₹396.2 Billion

India Expands Gulf Trade Footprint with Oman CEPA

Is India Starving for Nutrition? The Protein Crisis in a Calorie-Sufficient Nation

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Notwithstanding the robust growth reported in the latest GDP numbers, high-frequency indicators point to anaemic momentum in industrial activity.

Datametricx

Trade Wars, the Rupee’s Decline and Why Markets Miss Quiet Relief

Rupee moves, trade wars, fragile platforms and uneven growth come together to show why markets fear crashes, yet fail to price the slow comfort of quiet relief.

Phynix

Tribal Women Entrepreneurs and the Income Gap: A Roadmap to 2047

As India heads to 2047, turning tribal women’s everyday enterprise into real, secure livelihoods could be key to closing rural income gaps and building inclusive growth.

Hemachandra Padhan

Opinion

Import Barriers on Metallurgical Coke Are Raising the Cost of Making Steel in India

Over the past 1 year, India has progressively tightened controls on LAM Coke imports through safeguard measures, quantitative restrictions, and provisional anti-dumping duties, creating a double barrier on both volumes and prices.

Ajay Srivastava

Why One-Size Fits All Economic Policy Fails India’s Uneven Growth Reality

India’s uneven states need tailored risk capital, not uniform rules; easing AIF norms could unlock diaspora money and help regions escape the poverty trap.

Arvind Jha

Did the Green Revolution Help Some Farmers More Than Others?

New research shows how the Green Revolution reshaped farm size and productivity in India, creating a U-shaped pattern that favoured some farmers more than others.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

NBFC Stability is About Models and Culture, Not Just Money

India’s NBFC strains are less about funding lines and more about flawed business models and weak risk culture. Fix those, and liquidity will follow.

Rahul Ghosh

Opinion

Caveat Emptor: A Warning for Small-cap Investors in Volatile Times

Small-caps have stumbled while benchmarks hold firm. A reminder to focus on diversification, patience and professional management, not quick wins.

Manoj Rane

Risk Sensitive Banking: Strength, Scale and Stability Beyond 2026

Strong balance sheets give banks room to grow, but tighter liquidity, sharper risk norms and new capital rules will test how sustainably that growth is delivered.

K. Srinivasa Rao

India’s Vast Creator Economy is Booming, But Inequality Defines It

India’s creator economy shapes billions in spending, yet only a small elite earns a living. The gap between influence and income exposes a skewed digital promise.

Abhishek Dey

India’s Exports Face a Hard 2026 Despite FTA Push

India must urgently review the performance of its FTAs—sector by sector—to ensure they are actually expanding exports, integrating Indian firms into global value chains, and delivering measurable trade gains rather than remaining under-utilised diplomatic trophies.

Ajay Srivastava

The Underpriced Asset Class: Pleasant Uncertainties

Markets price fear well but relief poorly. Peace in Ukraine could compress uncertainty, steady the dollar, lift EMs and drive rotation.

R. Gurumurthy

Why Trump Has an Affordability Problem

As prices stay nearly 25% above pre-pandemic levels, Trump’s dismissal of affordability fears ignores tariffs, inflation psychology, and the everyday costs squeezing US households.

Michael R. Strain

A Decade of Rupee Depreciation: Why This Time Was Different

The rupee’s 2015–25 slide looks dramatic in headline terms, but unlike past episodes it unfolded gradually, supported by services exports, reserves and RBI’s volatility management.

Babuji K

Opinion

How to and How Not to Privatise Airports

When airport privatisation rewards revenue maximisation without cost discipline, passengers end up paying the price through rising fees and opaque regulatory pass-throughs.

TK Arun

How the Fed Became a Lender of Immediate Resort

By acting as a lender of immediate resort, the Fed may have steadied markets, but it also left the underlying incentives unchanged, setting the stage for the next crisis and putting its independence under strain.

Amit Seru

Opinion

Urban Company Investors Discover the True Cost of Daily Housekeeping

InstaHelp’s rapid expansion has pushed Urban Company back into losses, testing investor faith after the IPO.

Krishnadevan V

Are Tariffs the Termites in the Customs House?

India’s complex structure of tariffs has been compounded by FTAs deeply impacting domestic manufacturing - breeding discretion and incentivising evasion.

Reform Compass

Beyond Funding: What Really Determines Employment Guarantee Success?

The success of the newly-enacted VB-G Ram G will depend on how well its implementation is adapted to local conditions. Despite high poverty, MGNREGA failed to guarantee employment in many states, highlighting that one-size-fits-all policies rarely work.

Nilanjan Banik

Geopolitics

Pakistan, Gaza, and the Strategic Burden of Unmandated Peacekeeping

In 2003, following the US-led invasion of Iraq, New Delhi was approached to deploy an Indian Army brigade for stabilisation duties. One of the brigades under consideration was based in Ranchi. However, the proposal was withdrawn when it became clear that this was not an UN-mandated operation.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Beyond Big Numbers: Making AI Investments Work for India’s Sovereignty

Global AI investments bring scale to India, but sovereignty depends on ownership, data control, and capability, not just capital, data centres, or big headline numbers.

Shubhranshu

India’s Bond Market Is No Longer Listening to the RBI

Rate cuts, benign inflation and strong growth optics should have eased yields. The bond market’s refusal to comply is a warning of deeper structural fault lines.

Madhavi Arora

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Contradictions in India’s economic data persisted in November, with exports to the US rising sharply despite the punitive tariffs.

Datametricx

When the Lights Go Up, Does Civic Sense Go Down?

IPO exits masquerade as entry, bond markets ignore rate cuts, and policy struggles to move beyond spectacle to sense.

Phynix

Opinion

Paytm’s Payments Story Is Solid, but the Communication Is Not

Paytm’s AI and Postpaid pitch impressed on growth but unsettled investors on cash flow, disclosure clarity, and whether its bigger story still fits the numbers.

Krishnadevan V

How Presumptive Taxation Can Transform India's Investment Climate

NITI Aayog’s presumptive tax proposal could cut disputes, boost FDI, and give foreign firms tax certainty by replacing PE litigation with fixed rates.

Sangeeta Jain

When Legacy is an Externality for a Commercial Ops, Who Should Pay to Sustain it?

As Annapurna Bhandar of Chandini Chowk faces closure, can Indian cities take a cue from Paris or San Francisco to protect legacy shops?

TK Arun

Why Indian Deal Pricing No Longer Rests with Bankers

SEBI’s rule changes shift pricing power in takeovers and ESOPs from merchant bankers to independent valuers, altering how Indian deals are priced.

Krishnadevan V

Opinion

Coal India Chooses Ops Expertise over Strategic Transformation

The world’s largest coal producer appears all set hunker down on optimising coal infrastructure even as demand and supply turn towards renewables, abandoning transformation for managed decline

Dev Chandrasekhar

Why State Finances are Feeling the Strain: A Case Study of Three States

Election-time freebies are straining state budgets as debt stays elevated, revenues lag and committed spending crowds out investment. Case studies from Bihar, Punjab and West Bengal show how giveaways risk locking states into deeper borrowing and fiscal stress.

Abhishek Dey

Why India’s IPO Boom is Raising More Questions Than Capital

Exit doors disguised as entry points: By the time the bell rings, the real money has already left the building.

R. Gurumurthy

What Is India’s IPO Boom Telling Us?

The IPO boom reflects domestic confidence, rising retail participation and improving market depth. But exuberance, mispricing and volatility warrant caution.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Geopolitics

Preah Vihear and the Politics of Memory in the Thailand–Cambodia Conflict

The Thailand–Cambodia conflict is less about borders than memory, pride and politics—revealing how identity disputes endure, escalate, and defeat regional diplomacy.

Rami Niranjan Desai

Central Banking

Beware of Central Economic Forecasts for 2026

As 2026 begins, we must not allow a comforting central forecast to nurture complacency.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

India’s Industrial Policy Drifts Amid Bold Claims and Faltering Delivery

India’s industrial policy remains a patchwork of ambitions, reversals and stalled schemes, where lofty declarations outpace execution, coherence and long-term vision.

Sharmila Kantha

Crew Planning and Fatigue Management on Indian Railways: Why Trains Never Stop Running

Unlike airlines, Indian Railways never halts for crew shortages. Robust planning, training, and rest protocols ensure trains run safely, day and night, without disruption.

Shubhranshu

India’s Currency Conundrum: Why the Rupee’s Path to 100 Looks Unavoidable

Despite rapid growth, India’s currency continues to weaken. That divergence is structural, not cyclical, and it points to a faster depreciation cycle ahead.

Dhananjay Sinha

Will Customer Ever be the King in India?

Despite RBI’s call for customer-first policies, rising complaints highlight gaps in service. Can better training, tech tools, and accountability improve India’s banking experience?

Alpana Killawala

Are We in the Goldilocks Scenario?

India’s Goldilocks moment looks enticing, yet surging growth and vanishing inflation signal a fragile equilibrium, a lull before the storm.

Mridul Saggar

Monetary Policy

MPC Signals Maturity as Policy Counters Shocks with Confidence

India’s MPC breaks from old precautionary playbooks, using countercyclical policy and clearer signalling to steady growth, inflation and financial stability.

Ashima Goyal

Geopolitics

The Middle East After Gaza: Strategic Stalemates and Uncertain Futures

As 2025 ends, the Middle East remains in flux—Gaza quiet but unresolved, Iran under strain, Gulf cautious, and global powers navigating a region where pauses don’t mean peace.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Unemployment Tracker

Joblessness Hits Sub-5% after 8 Months; Youth and Urban Gender Gaps Persist

India’s unemployment dipped to a fiscal low in November, aided by rural hiring and women’s participation. Yet some divides remain.

Akshi Chawla

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency data continue to send mixed signals, complicating interpretation. Retail automobile sales moderated sharply in November, even as wholesale dispatches surged.

Datametricx

How Power Reforms Pulled BlackRock Into Grasim’s Renewables Play

BlackRock’s India renewable bet hinges on the draft Electricity Bill, which reshapes captive power economics, derisks tariffs, and rewrites industrial energy math.

Dev Chandrasekhar

India’s Protein Blind Spot: Why Growth Has Not Fed the Nation Well

India’s malnutrition problem is not about shortages. It is about neglecting protein in food policy, even as domestic sources remain abundant and underused.

G. Chandrashekhar

Stablecoins, CBDCs, and the RBI’s Selective Logic

In a world where money is becoming a networked technology, caution without engagement may itself become a source of vulnerability.

R. Gurumurthy

Opinion

A Year of Recalibration at Mint Street

Governor Malhotra’s first year at the RBI brought cleaner rules, quieter reversals, and a distinct shift in tone as the technocrat adjusted to the institution’s rhythm.

Kalyan Ram

India’s Export Surge in November: Too Early to Celebrate?

India’s exports rose sharply in November, but a closer look reveals the boost may stem from base effects and a few sectors, raising questions about the sustainability of the trend.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Beyond the FDI ‘Collapse’: Why India Needs Better Narratives, Not Panic

A 96% drop in net FDI is real. Treating it as a verdict is the mistake. India’s challenge lies in reading capital cycles, not panicking over single data points.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Curating Playlists for Dopamine, Growth, and Disorder

From RBI recalibration to trade shocks and tech risks, India’s economy is learning to balance growth, control, and chaos, much like curating the perfect playlist.

Phynix

Why Intel’s Chip Deal May Undercut India’s Push for Self-Reliance

China, facing US chip bans, doubled down on indigenous chipmaking—with success. If India leans on Intel instead of investing in homegrown R&D, it could miss its chance to replicate that model.

TK Arun

Building an Effective Sovereign Borrowers' Club

While creditor coordination has long been institutionalized – through the Paris Club, the London Club, and industry-led efforts such as the Institute of International Finance – borrower countries have often been discouraged from sharing information, leading to ad hoc exchanges.

Homi Kharas and Mahmoud Mohieldin

What Physicswallah Built on Trust Now Balances on Cash

Physicswallah’s first letter to shareholders celebrates its performance, yet the narrative glosses over bigger risks as scale tests the mission that built the brand.

Krishnadevan V

Basis Life

Why Some Failures Stay Contained — and Others Become Televised Meltdowns

When a crisis flares, facts rarely decide its fate. Tone does. Some failures fade; others become national theatre. The difference is whether leaders steady the room—or leave it to silence.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Which Sectors Mexico’s Tariffs Will Hit in India, And Why New Delhi Has Limited Options

For India, the measures affect nearly three-quarters of its $5.75 billion exports to Mexico in 2024-25, fundamentally altering the commercial logic of accessing the Mexican market.

Ajay Srivastava

How Global AI Governance Could Work

The world needs AI governance that doesn’t rely on massive compute or heavy regulation. India’s digital architecture points the way.

Jayant Sinha

Has India’s Infrastructure Boom Transformed Its Economic Growth?

The impact of India’s infrastructure spending has been meaningful, but not explosive.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

Why Smart Dealmakers Can Now Treat SEBI as a Counterparty in M&A

SEBI’s new informal guidance scheme subtly shifts the locus of regulatory risk management and could make savvy dealmakers now treat the regulator as a strategic counterparty rather than a roadblock.

Krishnadevan V

SIM-Binding is a Strategic Misstep

The SIM-binding mandate is not a procedural privilege the state grants itself; it is a structural redesign of India’s digital ecosystem.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Monetary Policy

December Cut for Inflation, a February Cut for Growth

India’s December cut signalled entrenched disinflation, yet weakening growth may force another move in February as liquidity and demand slip.

Yield Scribe

Comprehensive Customs Reforms Are Urgent for India’s Trade Competitiveness

India’s high tariffs and cumbersome customs procedures are eroding its trade competitiveness. A comprehensive overhaul of tariffs, systems, and infrastructure is now essential.

Sharmila Kantha

Government’s Planned Bold Reset Could Make Indian Customs Future-Ready

The Budget can fix the maze of rates but the devil is sitting deep in the business processes and systems.

Reform Compass

COP30 Will Test India’s Ability to Grow Rapidly While Going Greener

COP30 arrives as India balances rapid development with intensifying climate risks. The summit’s finance, technology, and transition outcomes will shape its next decade.

Hemachandra Padhan