India's Best-Run Banks May Have a Governance Debt Coming Due

A part-time chair’s vantage point reveals how long ESOP accumulation can shift internal power and complicate oversight in banks.

Krishnadevan V

iStock.com

HDFC Bank Investors Own the Risk But Not the Response

HDFC Bank’s institutional owners hold nearly 85% of the shares but exercise limited oversight, exposing a governance gap that the market may not yet fully price in.

Krishnadevan V

Hormuz Risk Calls for India’s Energy Statecraft Reset

As Hormuz risks reshape energy access, India must move beyond markets to secure supply through strategy, diversification, and calibrated statecraft.

Rajesh Mahapatra

When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

Indian Companies May Need a Timeless Strategy to Fix a New Cash Problem

Indian companies’ ₹16 trillion cash pile is reviving an old instrument that returns capital without locking in dividends or distorting ownership.

Chandrika Soyantar

Large NBFCs Cannot Remain Exempt From Leadership Tenure Discipline

If systemically important NBFCs are large enough to matter to financial stability, they are large enough to face governance disciplines closer to banks. India should stop mistaking executive longevity for institutional strength and begin treating succession as a prudential obligation.

Srinath Sridharan

When Prices Break from the Map

The Iran conflict is fragmenting energy markets by route, not supply, creating persistent cost pressures and complicating the inflation outlook for importers.

Yield Scribe

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

TK Arun

Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Sachin Malhotra

Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

The Bureau

Trump Postpones Strikes on Iranian Energy Sites After “Productive” Talks With Tehran

PM Flags “Unprecedented” Economic Pressure from Iran Conflict; Govt Forms GoM to Tackle Impact

India Must Closely Monitor Oil Risks: RBI Bulletin

DGFT Restores RoDTEP Rates: GTRI

Asian Equities Sink as Energy Infrastructure Threats Rattle Investors

HDFC Bank Moves to Calm Governance Concerns; RBI Too Assures Stability

Family Offices Turn Cautious as Private Credit Risks Mount: Moody’s Analytics

India's Wheat Warning: Why the Government's Rabi Numbers May Be Wrong and What El Niño Could Do Next

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

A Proposal for Strengthening the RBI’s Market Operations

To keep the rupee stable in a volatile world, the RBI may need $1 trillion in reserves and smarter deployment of global dollar liquidity tools.

Michael Debabrata Patra

When Optimism Replaces Policy and Markets Stop Signalling

From rebased GDP to phantom buyers and proxy wars, a familiar world begins to feel faintly unfamiliar, if you’re willing to look up.

Phynix

Reading Gold Right Means Reading Oil Too

Gold’s rally is not a simple safe-haven story. The gold–oil ratio suggests markets may be misreading risk, inflation and what comes next.

V Thiagarajan

India’s Climate Problem Is Not Capacity, It Is Incentives

Institutional capacity exists, but incentives distort outcomes. India’s climate challenge lies in fragmented policy design, not administrative weakness.

Arvind Mayaram

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The sharp rise in crude oil prices and disruption in trade routes threaten to push India’s inflation trajectory and current account deficit off balance.

Datametricx

HDFC Bank Chairman's Churlish Exit Carries a Costly Sting

A veteran bureaucrat’s abrupt exit, marked by insinuation and retreat, turned a personal dispute into a credibility shock, raising questions about a chairman’s duty to safeguard institutional trust.

Krishnadevan V

HDFC Bank Chairman Exit — Contained Disruption

HDFC Bank chairman’s exit raises questions on conduct, not operations; disruption remains contained if RBI comfort and financial performance hold.

T. Bijoy Idicheriah

Unusual Banks

When a Co-operative Still Carries the Bank Tag

REPCO Bank has long been allowed to use the word “bank” even though it is legally a multi-state co-operative society rather than a bank. The arrangement reflects a legacy exception that now sits uneasily with the RBI’s broader regulatory stance.

T. Bijoy Idicheriah

Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy

Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see countries with stability and growth.

R. Gurumurthy

Opinion

How Many Faultlines Will the Iran War Leave Behind?

The Iran war may conclude, but its aftermath could reshape power balances, energy systems and global alignments, creating faultlines that outlast the conflict itself

TK Arun

RBI Is Now the Bond Market’s Buyer of First Resort

The ₹1 trillion of screen-based OMOs and ₹8.58 trillion of total net buying show the RBI is inside the bond market, not outside, even as yields remain unyielding.

Richard Fargose

Is the Private Credit Boom Going Bust?

Since 2008, private credit has expanded into a $3.5 trillion industry, driven by private equity and operating outside the reach of traditional banking rules. As cracks begin to appear, the risks embedded in a system built on opaque valuations and rising leverage are becoming harder to ignore.

Brian Judge

Apollo Demerger Recasts It as a Pure-Play Hospital Story

The planned separation of HealthCo from the hospital core is as much a valuation argument as a strategic one. It arrives just as Apollo's value-over-volume thesis begins to pay off.

Dev Chandrasekhar

West Asia Shock Tests RBI’s Growth-First Playbook

A dual oil supply and price shock may lift inflation and strain growth, forcing the RBI to rely on liquidity and signalling to keep conditions supportive.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Rebasing Reality Resets India’s Growth and Inflation Narrative

MoSPI’s new GDP and CPI series redraw growth, inflation and policy signals, even as geopolitics clouds the near-term outlook.

Sameer Narang

Jaguar Has Bet Everything on a Buyer It Has Never Met

Jaguar's all-electric relaunch is a high-stakes wager on a luxury EV market where Porsche and Mercedes are already bleeding. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle cannot afford to be wrong.

Krishnadevan V

The Myth of Post-War Reconstruction

The world pledges billions for postwar reconstruction. The money rarely arrives. Here’s what works when the fantasy ends.

Sharmila Chavaly

When Welfare Works but Poverty Persists: India's Structural Divide

Rajesh Kumar*

Family Offices and India’s Capital Shift: Missing the Real Story

Srinath Sridharan

West Bengal’s Industrial Drift: Stability Without Strategy

Arup Mitra

America's Permanent Tariff Uncertainty Will Drive Up Costs

Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg

The Comfort of Stability, The Cost of Silence

India’s bond market looks stable, but heavy RBI support and captive demand may be weakening price signals, distorting risk, and dulling its role as the system’s benchmark.

R. Gurumurthy

Unemployment Tracker

India’s Unemployment Eases, But Youth and Women Still Struggle

India’s unemployment rate eased to 4.9% in February, but persistently high joblessness among youth and women reveals deeper structural weaknesses in the labour market.

Akshi Chawla

India’s Warship Pipeline Is Bigger Than Its Shipyards

India's shipbuilding story is one of growing grit, gathering scale, and a defence pipeline that is pushing the industry to punch above its weight.

Krishnadevan V

Are We Facing an AI Nightmare?

AI-doom scenarios are going viral because there are no easy public-policy responses to the problem of large-scale but not universal technological unemployment. Society’s best hope is a Goldilocks scenario, where the AI rollout is not too fast, and where the industry is not too oligopolistic.

Raghuram Rajan

When Your Rent Eats Your Salary Before You Do

Oil at $100, cooking gas shortages, and rents that devour paychecks. Survival is a full-time job when the bills are due.

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Retail inflation rose marginally in February. However, the war in West Asia, the resulting disruption in global trade channels, and higher crude oil prices could push up domestic inflation in the coming months.

Datametricx

India’s Rabi Crop Estimates May Be Too Optimistic

The government’s second advance estimates project record wheat and mustard output, yet heat stress, weak rainfall, and yield math suggest caution.

G. Chandrashekhar

Cognizant’s Whale of a boost for Indian IT Services Industry’s continued Salience

Cognizant’s WhaleAgent, an AI-based predictive tool to help minimise whale-ship collisions, shows that AI could enhance Indian IT services firms’ capabilities.

TK Arun

India’s New CPI–GDP Series Resets the Lens on Growth and Inflation

India’s new CPI and GDP series overhaul flawed measurements, sharpen inflation signals and revise growth lower, offering policymakers clearer guidance.

D. Tripati Rao

India’s Services Edge in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulences

Oil shocks still rattle India’s economy, but a powerful services surplus is reshaping its external resilience and cushioning geopolitical turbulence.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

West Asia War Tests India’s Energy, Trade and Financial Stability

As the Israel-Iran conflict widens, risks to oil flows, remittances, capital flows and the rupee are rising, forcing India to balance growth with external stability

D. Tripati Rao

Oil for Infrastructure? The Risks of Long-Term Supply Compacts

Can India convert its vast oil import bill into infrastructure finance? The idea is tempting, but long-term oil supply deals may carry strategic and financial risks.

Arvind Mayaram

When a Private Bank Is Almost Entirely State-Owned

T. Bijoy Idicheriah

Amending Press Note 3 Was the Easy Part

Deep Pal

Indian Planners Failed to Wargame the West Asia Crisis

Rajesh Ramachandran

The Market Where Optimism Does the Policy Work

Yield Scribe

Assam at the Crossroads: BJP's Pro-Incumbency Gambit vs Congress's Comeback Test

Elections in Assam are heating up, with allegations and counter-allegations, poll yatras, alliances taking shape, and candidates being announced.

Amitabh Tiwari

Why India Still Resists Short Selling

India’s caution toward short selling reflects its history and market structure, yet limiting it may weaken liquidity, price discovery, and capital market depth.

R. Gurumurthy

Oil Shock From Iran Conflict May Test RBI’s Policy Comfort

A surge in crude prices and rupee weakness could complicate the RBI’s benign inflation outlook if the West Asia conflict proves prolonged.

Richard Fargose

India’s LPG Rescue Is Creating a Hidden Cost Shock for Industry

India’s diversion of LPG supply to protect households is tightening the supply of petrochemical feedstocks, raising costs for plastics processors, glassmakers and restaurant chains.

Krishnadevan V

When Crude Spiked, Reliance Didn't Move Like a State-owned Refiner

Jio-bp is the domestic fuel retail JV built over three years specifically to reduce Reliance’s exposure to the windfall levies and marketing losses that are now squeezing its PSU peers.

Dev Chandrasekhar

A Thaw with China Must Reset India’s Uneven Trade Equation

India–China ties may be warming again, but the trade numbers tell a different story. Imports from China continue to surge while India’s exports struggle to keep pace.

Sharmila Kantha

Do Elections Shape India’s Rural Infrastructure Programmes?

Even rules-based schemes like PMGSY are not immune to politics. New research shows road approvals rise before elections as politicians time visible projects for voters.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

India’s Deposits Are Clustering, And the Next Rate Cycle Will Show It

The tightening cycle has quietly concentrated bank deposits in the 1–3 year band, making funding costs more sensitive to shifts in the interest-rate cycle.

Abhishek Dey

When AI’s Loyalties Are Tested: Data Sovereignty, Geopolitics and Energy Intensity

As AI systems power finance, defence and public infrastructure, questions of data control, energy supply and national jurisdiction are turning artificial intelligence into strategic infrastructure.

R. Gurumurthy

Twin Risks of War and Weather Threaten Indian Economy

A widening West Asian conflict and a looming El Niño are creating a dangerous mix for the Indian economy, as higher energy costs and weather-hit crops could push inflation up and complicate growth prospects.

G. Chandrashekhar

Washington Turns to Trade Investigations as Tariff Strategy Unravels

With its reciprocal tariff strategy struck down by the Supreme Court, Washington is reviving Section 301 probes, placing India and 15 economies under scrutiny.

Ajay Srivastava

ONGC's Expected Windfall Could Be a Mirage

Brent at $110 is expected to flatter ONGC's numbers, but the government's reflex to claw back upstream windfalls, combined with a sputtering E&P engine, means the rally has a ceiling the market might be choosing to ignore.

Dev Chandrasekhar

When Geopolitics Enters the Bank’s Risk Ledger

Rising credit costs, slower deposits, and geopolitical shocks are converging. Banks must detect borrower stress early before risks reach balance sheets.

K. Srinivasa Rao

India’s Retail Investing Boom Heads Toward Its First Stress Test

India’s SIP inflows dipped in February, yet the number of SIP accounts continued to rise. The real question is whether retail investors stay disciplined in the next market drawdown.

Krishnadevan V

Petronet and GAIL Are Not the Same Stock but Markets Miss the Point

Dev Chandrasekhar

India’s AI Strategy Is Quietly Shifting From Ambition to Use

Reform Compass

When Neutrality Becomes Silence

BasisPoint Groupthink

Fixing Arbitrage: The Missing Link in India’s Bond Market

Rahul Ghosh

American Mania and the Drift Toward Strategic Hubris

A culture wired for competition and expansion may explain why American power often slides from confident leadership into strategic overreach.

R. Gurumurthy

A Nation Celebrates a Win While the World Quietly Unravels

India’s T20 triumph briefly united a divided nation. Outside the stadium, oil shocks, AI battles, bond puzzles and geopolitics continued to churn.

Phynix

India’s EV Policy Rewards Scale but Leaves Innovation Waiting

India’s EV PLI scheme has boosted manufacturing but sidelined innovation. By rewarding scale over technology, it risks weakening the ecosystem it hopes to build.

Nilanjan Banik

Airtel Knows Its Customers, but Lending Them Money Is Another Matter

Krishnadevan V

Coal Gasification Should be a Strategic Priority, Not Just Another Mission

TK Arun

Completing the Urban Reform Agenda: Strengthening City Governance After Fiscal Devolution

Arvind Mayaram

Can the US Afford Trump's Iran War?

Desmond Lachman

The Case For a Robot Tax

As AI and robotics threaten labour-intensive growth in developing economies, policymakers may need to reconsider a controversial idea: a tax on excessive automation.

Abheek Barua

Geopolitics

Nepal’s Angst Has Produced a New Leader. Now Comes the Hard Part

For India, the emerging political landscape presents both uncertainty and opportunity.

Saibal Dasgupta

Private Credit: Echoes of 2008?

Explosive growth, opaque loans and rising leverage are drawing uncomfortable parallels with the pre-2008 credit boom, raising questions about risks lurking in the private credit market.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Why Central Banks Intervene and Why the FX Rate Matters for the RBI

Michael Debabrata Patra

Gold in Equity Funds Risks Expanding India’s Import Burden

R. Gurumurthy

Durand Line Tensions Signal a Deeper Regional Reckoning

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Trump, Anthropic and the Lesson for India: Build an AI PSU

TK Arun

Geopolitics

Escalation Pathways and Strategic Risk in the Middle East

After the reported killing of Iran’s supreme leader, the conflict shifts from deterrence to strategic shock, raising urgent questions over containment and escalation pathways.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

The Strait of Hormuz on Edge and India’s Fiscal Reckoning

With Iran at war and Hormuz under threat, energy, fertiliser and fiscal risks are rising fast. Geopolitics is now embedded in price.

Yield Scribe

India’s Paint Makers Built Brands on Walls but Profits Shift to Assembly Lines

Indian paint companies get consumer valuations even as profits shift to industrial and auto coatings, where OEM lock-in now drives returns.

Krishnadevan V

Supervising the System: RBI’s Quiet Governance Reset

As finance turns digital and interlinked, the RBI is redesigning supervision by shifting from balance-sheet checks to ecosystem-wide governance architecture.

Abhishek Dey

Interview

Has India’s Statistical Overhaul Clarified Growth — or Deepened the Puzzle?

A new GDP base year lifts some numbers, trims others — but leaves a harder question: where is India’s growth really coming from?

BasisPoint Insight

Briefing

Beyond the Hype: Why AI May Not Deliver as Advertised

AI is being priced as destiny. History suggests technological revolutions travel a slower, more uneven path than markets assume.

V Thiagarajan

India’s Bond Market Puzzle: The Missing Market Makers

India’s bond market lacks depth because trading remains thin. Unless natural players like the banks take a larger role in government and corporate debt, liquidity and benchmarks will remain weak.

Rahul Ghosh

Borrowing Without Bruising the Curve in 2026-27

Supply discipline, SDL restraint and liquidity calibration will determine whether ₹16 trillion sails smoothly or strains duration again.

Yield Scribe

RBI Tightens Grip on Banks’ Non-Core Sales Practices

New RBI rules on third-party product sales seek to curb mis-selling, realign incentives, and restore trust in banking distribution models.

K. Srinivasa Rao

Fuel Efficiency Norms Need Drastic Overhaul, Not Revised Coefficients

The CAFE norms controversy should draw in the public at large, and not just rival automobile makers

TK Arun

Clean Water’s True Price in Rural India

What rural households in Odisha reveal about the real economic value of safe drinking water, and why delivery models may outperform traditional fixes.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*