Sameer Narang

RBI Rate Hike Cycle Starts; How Far Can It Go?

Inflation pressures are rising and resilient growth provides the RBI with the space to respond. However, the path ahead remains conditional.

Sakshi Gupta

The RBI Is Making Haste Slowly

The RBI has settled the direction of rates, not the pace. A cautious inflation diagnosis faces a harder test from the dollar and financial risks.

Kalyan Ram

The Business Risks Are Bigger Than 25 bps

Rising input costs, tighter finance and global uncertainty are testing corporate plans. Can businesses protect margins and sustain investment as these pressures reinforce each other?

Anuj Agarwal

A Pragmatic Hike With a Hawkish Tail

With price pressures broadening and growth holding up, attention turns to liquidity and expectations. How will oil, the rupee and global yields shape the decisions still to come?

Radhika Piplani

RBI Unambiguously Signals Rate Tightening Cycle

While the 25bps rate hike was widely expected, the change in stance to ‘calibrated tightening’ has taken everyone by surprise

Sachchidanand Shukla

RBI Raises Repo Rate for First Time in Four Years, Shifts Stance to Tightening

RBI hikes repo rate to 5.50% and shifts to calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden, signalling a cautious policy reset.

BasisPoint Insight

Columnists

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Ashima Goyal

Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Sharmila Kantha

Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Basis Shorts

MPC LIVE

CRR is Not the RBI’s Preferred Tool

A Weak Rupee Is Not Proof of Irrationality

Tightening Has a Different Meaning at the RBI

The Dissent Makes the Case for a Stronger Stance

The Call Rate Will Test the Hike’s Bite

The Bureau

Edited Transcript of RBI’s Post-Policy Press Conference.

RBI raises 2026-27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2%, flags oil, monsoon risks

GTRI Urges Government to Reconsider MDR on UPI Transactions

Emkay Global Chief Economist Madhavi Arora says RBI prepares markets for higher-for-longer rates

RBI to Set Up Technical Consultative Committee for Financial Markets

RBI to Use Appropriate Mix of Liquidity Tools, Align WACR with Repo Rate

RBI Raises 2026-27 GDP Growth Forecast to 7.1%, Flags West Asia, Monsoon Risks

Two External MPC Members Dissent on Policy Stance, Favour Retaining Neutral

Is the RBI Behind the Curve?

MPC Preview

Case for a Hawkish 25-bps Hike

A timely rate hike will allow the RBI to avoid bigger hikes that are disorderly and hurt growth, with 3–4 hikes needed to achieve neutral monetary policy settings.

Abhishek Upadhyay

The UPI Checkout Test: Who Will Bear the Merchant Fee?

The rules say merchants will pay UPI’s new fee. But at the checkout, prices, payment choices and ingenuity could tell a different story. Who will ultimately pick up the tab?

K. S Sujit

One Policy Rate, Two Benchmarks: Why Borrowers Feel Different Cycles

The Monetary Policy Committee meets on 7 October to decide a rate. It cannot decide, and rarely discusses, who that rate reaches.

Sanya Agarwal

Rupee at 100 for One-Year Delivery Tests RBI’s Reassurance

The rupee may be undervalued, but dollar demand, costly oil and weak capital flows leave the RBI managing a decline it cannot simply talk away.

Richard Fargose

MPC Special

When Everyone Protests, Even Bonds are Voting with Their Feet

We are stepping outside our weekly schedule ahead of the policy decision because agreement on a likely rate hike is concealing some consequential disagreements about what should accompany it.

Phynix

What Is the RBI Hiking For?

RBI looks set to hike. The real question is whether it is catching up with markets or committing to a sustained fight to restore inflation to 4%.

BasisPoint Groupthink

What Tata Sons and RBI Each Owe the Other

The RBI refused Tata Sons' bid to exit CIC regulation. The case tests whether a holding company can know what it must show to change its status.

Chandrika Soyantar

How a Prolonged Iran War Could Strengthen the US Energy Position

A prolonged Iran war could deepen energy supply disruptions, redirect Asian demand towards the US and strengthen America’s role in global energy trade

Yashveer Singh

MPC Preview

Time for RBI to Bite the Bullet

Broader inflation pressures and a falling rupee call for an October rate hike, but surplus liquidity could blunt its impact.

Indranil Pan

How China’s New Investment and Export Controls Jeopardise India’s Economic Choices

India is opening doors to Chinese investment. Beijing is tightening its grip on what can leave. What happens when India’s industrial ambitions meet China’s new rules?

Sharmila Kantha

Investors Cannot Do Everyone’s Homework

Investors must judge prices and risks, but financial literacy cannot make up for opaque disclosures, unclear official data or flawed market rules

Krishnadevan V

The Banker HDFC Bank Found Across the Rivalry

Anup Bagchi’s move to HDFC Bank puts an ICICI veteran in charge of its fiercest rival and brings a wider leadership network across Indian finance into view.

Rishikesh Patel

Krishnadevan V

Videos

RBI Hikes Rates, but Why Did the Rupee Fall?

Rajesh Mahapatra

Kalyan Ram

Why a Cut in Pulses Import Duty Could Backfire

Rajesh Mahapatra

GDP, Geoeconomics & The China Conundrum?

Rakesh Khar

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

Rajesh Mahapatra

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Operational Realities in Monetary Policy Transmission

Monetary policy transmission begins instantly in money markets, but frictions across rates, bonds and bank credit weaken its speed and strength.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Why Climate Finance Is Becoming a Sovereign Debt Problem

The convergence of fiscal and monetary risks is shaping the climate finance debate. As debt grows and capital costs climb, can countries fund resilience without deepening the trap?

Arvind Mayaram

Interview

Why the Govt Must Resist the Urge to Cut Import Duties on Pulses

Cheaper imports promise relief from rising pulse prices. But could a duty cut before rabi sowing carry a hidden cost? Former Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain weighs the choices facing farmers and policymakers.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Securing the Siliguri Corridor in an Age of Hybrid Threats

The threat to India’s narrow gateway to the Northeast is changing. Can disruption achieve what an army once threatened—and is the country prepared for a crisis without a frontline?

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

An Inspection Is Not an Assurance

Identifying vulnerabilities in a financial institution is the responsibility of those running the institution, not those inspecting it

Rahul Ghosh

PLI at Six: Real Factories, Modest Returns, and a Bill Still Being Written

Production-linked incentives have changed what India makes, but not as much as promised. The next round should learn from the gap

Ganga Narayan Rath and Chirayu Sharma

MPC Preview

RBI Needs More Than a Rate Hike to Tighten Policy

A 25-basis-point hike needs calibrated liquidity absorption to work, with flexible tools taking priority and CRR only as a temporary last resort.

Kanika Pasricha*

Ready to Sign an Interim Deal or Stuck at a Plateau?

The India–US Trade Deal Puzzle: Is an interim pact within reach, or have talks hit their limits? Unclear tariff gains raise questions about the price India should pay.

Ajay Srivastava

Pilgrims, Priests and Pricey Tickets: Faith in a Falling Market

As growth meets its limits, the deeper questions are about confidence, credibility and whether institutions can turn policy intent into lasting economic outcomes.

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Industrial output accelerates to 8% in August, led by manufacturing and power, while fiscal pressures rise as tax collections weaken.

Datametricx

Two Tales of Trade Turnarounds

India’s export revival has produced two unlikely reversals: refined petroleum flowing to Russia and Gujarat Hilsa finding its way to Bangladesh.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Pipes: Monetary Policy Transmission

Setting the repo rate is only the start. Michael Patra explains how monetary policy reaches the economy, and what gets lost along the way.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Climate Action Paradox: Why Catastrophe Has Not Produced Transformation

Wars, pandemics and financial crises have forced sweeping change. Why has climate catastrophe struggled to do the same—and what would it take to break the pattern?

Arvind Mayaram

Stocks Slide, but the Government’s Tax Take Keeps Rising

Seven weeks of losses revive calls to rethink STT and capital gains tax, exposing the strain in India’s equity tax bargain.

Ujval Nanavati

Normal Bond Yields, Abnormal Debt

Bond yields may be returning to old levels, but far higher debt burdens give governments powerful reasons to keep real returns suppressed.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Three Years to Build a Global Bank?

HDFC Bank’s three-year CEO appointment raises a larger governance question: should regulators determine who is fit to run a bank, or also shape how long its board can retain that person?

R. Gurumurthy

Court Unquote

SC Comments on Drug Pricing, EY in Top Court, Suo Moto Case on Rising Rape Cases and More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight

Bank Credit Growth Outpaces Deposits, But Gap Remains Unsteadily

The credit-deposit ratio peaked in June, fell sharply through August and edged up again in September

Abhishek Dey

Tata Sons Tests the Limits of Shareholder Control

A disputed chairman’s appointment has exposed a harder question than who gets the job. Can Tata Sons’ rules settle a consequential decision when its board and majority shareholder disagree?

Krishnadevan V

When Regulators Become a Source of the Uncertainty they Seek to Reduce

Regulators must act against genuine risk, but frequent rule changes can unsettle markets. Credibility rests on restraint as much as intervention.

R. Gurumurthy

Opinion

IRDAI, Insurance Companies and the Hunt for New Bakras

IRDAI wants to curb front-loaded commissions and mis-selling, but entrenched distribution incentives may simply shift rather than disappear under the new rules.

Vivek Kaul

The Cost That Falls Either Way: How India Should Deploy Its Liquidity Surplus

India’s FCNR-driven liquidity surplus leaves the RBI deciding where sterilisation costs should fall, even as banks face growing incentives to move excess reserves into credit.

Anil Katia

What Household Surveys Reveal About India’s Growth Disconnect

RBI consumer surveys suggest the gap between reported growth and household experience is being driven less by inflation than by concerns over jobs and economic conditions.

Deepa Vasudevan

Geopolitics

Indian Diplomacy in Crisis Mode

India’s strategic autonomy is under growing strain as Washington’s renewed engagement with Pakistan, pressure over Russian oil and the deepening US-China rivalry complicate its choices.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Bond Markets Enter the MPC With More Than the Next Rate Hike at Stake

Carry losses, divergent rate expectations and supply pressures leave bond investors weighing more than the next repo move ahead of the MPC.

Yield Scribe

Audit the FTAs

An FTA gives away tariff revenue and policy space in return for market access, investment and exports. India should publish the balance sheet of every such bargain, measure what it delivered and learn from it before negotiating the next one.

Srinath Sridharan

Arjun Raghavendra M.

The Twin Liquidity Deficits and India’s Equity Market

India’s secondary market is under stress as investors are choosing short-term gains in IPOs over long-term investments in listed stocks.

Chokkalingam G

Let NSE (and BSE) Self-List with the Right Framework

SEBI is right about the potential conflict of interest, but the answer should be to regulate it rather than eliminate it.

R. Sridharan

India Inc’s Next Red Flag May Not Be Debt, It May Be Unpaid Invoices

Receivables that outpace sales can expose the cash demands behind rapid growth, well before rising debt attracts investors’ attention.

Ritesh Kumar Singh

India’s Credit Boom Needs a Stronger Link to Investment and Employment

India’s credit surge needs to translate into productive assets and lasting jobs, not merely larger loan books and higher collateral values.

Kalluru Siva Reddy

Chinmay Joshi

Rahul Has Covered a Lot of Ground, but Congress Still Has Catching Up to Do

Rahul Gandhi has travelled far from the days of being written off. But between becoming the face of the opposition and taking Congress back to power lies a different test.

Amitabh Tiwari

Why Corporate India Should Look Beyond the Headline GDP Numbers

Rising input costs, shrinking margins, and weak investment suggest corporate value addition is lagging behind India’s headline GDP and GVA growth.

Dhananjay Sinha

IRDAI Must Finally Put Some Bite Behind Its Rules

After years of mis-selling and claims grievances, IRDAI is tightening distribution rules. But will lower commissions curb bad incentives, or simply push them elsewhere?

Srinath Sridharan

AI and the Fiscal Blind Spot

AI may ease fiscal pressures, but sovereign debt markets must weigh the promise of higher revenues against the costs of labour-market disruption.

V Thiagarajan

TRAI Directive Could Expose Telecom’s Pricing Trick

The telecom sector regulator wants to let customers refuse mobile data they do not use. For telecom investors, the test is whether operators can offer that choice without weakening the value of a basic connection.

Krishnadevan V

The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance

Financial technology is accelerating global integration, while geopolitical tensions are driving fragmentation. How will these opposing forces reshape finance over the next five years?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Regulating for the Public Good

The RBI, SEBI and IRDAI share a public purpose. Their recent interventions show why preparation and communication matter as much as intent.

Babuji K

A Tale of Two (Debt) Burdens

India and the US have both built up unsustainable debt. In India, the cost of the debt is the issue, while in the US the problem is that of the size of the debt.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Lies, Election Lies, and Trump's Statisticians

An obviously amateurish brief published by the US Census Bureau should raise alarms for all businesses, investors, and others who rely on official government statistics. By recklessly undermining trust in what should be an apolitical public service, Donald Trump is jeopardizing a critical pillar of American prosperity.

Michael R. Strain

Where Trade, Capital and Technology Meet Their Most Friction Points

Trade, debt, monetary policy, energy, manufacturing and technology reveal the pressures reshaping India's economy.

Phynix

The Independent Director Indian Cooperative Banks Have Long Been Missing

Cooperative banks need more than professional expertise. Independent judgement must improve oversight without displacing elected representatives

Rabi N. Mishra

Komal Gupta

Court Unquote

SAP-Nayara, SEBI-Adani, PILs Against Poll Panel, ASGs for Southern States & More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight

A Century of Excellence and a Rather Eventful Two Decades: Notes From Inside the Tata Group

A deadpan field guide to corporate feelings, by an ex-employee who reads the news between thriller and drama series.

Ashutosh Tyagi

NSE’s Muted Debut Tests the Strength of India’s IPO Boom

NSE’s subdued listing, rising OFS share and weaker IPO pops show a primary market still breaking records, even as investors grow more selective and retail risks mount.

Ganga Narayan Rath

Chirayu Sharma

Why FIIs Will Continue to Be Naraaz Fufajis

Earning decent returns at home, and without the risks that come with investing in India, FIIs have little reason to make up with us.

Vivek Kaul

The Myth of Safe Haven

Gold is supposed to protect us when the world becomes dangerous. So why is it falling precisely when war, inflation and geopolitical risk are rising? The word “safe” hides a question the mind would rather not ask: safe from what?

Kirti Tarang Pande

How Do Employers Screen Recent Graduates in India?

The availability of information about human capital is not enough to ensure employers actually use it while making hiring decisions.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

Distorted Price Signals: Tariffs, Interest Rates, and Global Inflation in 2026

In a world governed by signals, goverments are increasingly walking the tightrope between achieving policy objectives and the side-effects of their actions

Nilanjan Banik

Airtel Needs More Than a ₹50 Upgrade to Defend Its Premium

Airtel’s premium valuation rests on sustained ARPU growth, profitable broadband expansion and credible returns beyond its core telecom business.

Krishnadevan V

India’s Push for Manufacturing Medical Devices Moves From Crisis Management To Technology Development

India has built manufacturing capacity since COVID-19, but import dependence in high-end devices shows that technology sovereignty remains unfinished.

Sagar Desai

Basis Life

What Was Really Being Given?

Behind a box with a red bow, there’s a whole lot going on.

Kalyani Srinath

Basis Life

I Miss You, ELBS And Mir: When Affordable Knowledge Meant Great Books

ELBS and Mir gave generations of Indian students access to world-class textbooks at prices they could afford. Their quiet gift deserves to be remembered.

Shubhranshu

Basis Life

Bengaluru Meets Its Newest Driver: Artificial Intelligence

The city that gave India its tech revolution is now preparing to find out whether artificial intelligence can survive its traffic

R. Gurumurthy

After the Swap Window: Managing What the Rupee Rescue Has Left Behind

Record reserves have not lifted the rupee, and the RBI's FCNR(B) window has left a liquidity surplus and a repayment schedule to be managed. Emergency windows should run on rules fixed before they open.

Arvind Mayaram

Tokenisation Can Fix Bond Plumbing. It Cannot Create Liquidity

SEBI's Demat 2.0 pilot can modernise how corporate bonds settle, but deeper markets will depend on broader participation, price discovery and risk-taking capital.

Amit Sinha

GIFT City’s Regulatory Paradox

Can GIFT City become truly global without rethinking how it regulates? Its next leap may depend less on new permissions and more on removing unnecessary regulatory friction.

R. Gurumurthy

Geopolitics

India and the Changing Geometry of Great-Power Relations

India’s strategic autonomy is being tested as the US, China and Russia pursue overlapping interests, forcing New Delhi to balance partnerships without losing room to manoeuvre.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Make in India at a Crossroads: Eleven Years On, Does the Policy Need a Rethink?

It is time to re-evaluate the scheme, sharpening the parts that deliver, redesigning or retiring the parts that don't, and setting sector-specific benchmarks where progress can be tracked transparently.

Ganga Narayan Rath and Chirayu Sharma

Why Are Bond Yields Unyielding?

Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.

Michael Debabrata Patra

RBI’s Room to Stay on Hold Narrows as Domestic, Global Risks Converge

Inflation is broadening, growth is holding up and global rates are moving higher. The RBI can still wait, but the cost of waiting is becoming harder to ignore.

Nishat Anjum

The Chairman and the Boulder

Noel Tata’s inherited burdens evoke Sisyphus, but corporate leadership demands a result, not endless effort, as Tata Sons’ listing test turns into an open boardroom fight.

The Independent Director

India’s Copper Capacity Has Been Built on an Imported Foundation

India is adding copper smelting capacity, but heavy dependence on imported raw material is exposing a huge gap between building furnaces and securing the copper concentrate needed to keep them running.

Atul Prakash