Geopolitics

Bangladesh’s Verdict Opens Door to Reset with India

BNP’s sweeping win weakens Jamaat-e-Islami and offers Delhi a cautious chance to rebuild ties after a strained interim phase.

Saibal Dasgupta

Bangladesh Nationalist Party

India’s Consumption Boom Is Passing HUL By

Hindustan Unilever’s restructuring exposes execution strain as margins compress, core profits stall, and headline growth masks deeper operational weakness.

Krishnadevan V

Opinion

Is the AI Panic Artificial?

Markets are pricing in mass job destruction, but history suggests AI will disrupt selectively, not obliterate whole sectors overnight.

TK Arun

Risk-Based Deposit Insurance Framework Could Reshape Bank Behaviour

New risk-based deposit insurance regime will end blanket protection, reward disciplined lenders, and make weak banks bear the cost of their own failures.

K. Srinivasa Rao

Do Strikes Still Speak to Power?

Strikes were once the clearest grammar of dissent, the sharpest interruption in the flow of authority. In an age of fractured workforces and distracted democracies, the strike remains potent, but only if we understand what it is truly meant to do.

Srinath Sridharan

SBI’s Reset Took Years. Markets Took Longer.

India’s largest lender repaired its balance sheet and rebuilt profitability well before investors were willing to re-rate the stock.

Richard Fargose

Bond Market-Making Needs Capital, Not Just Mandates

India wants market makers to revive corporate bond trading. Even gilts never got meaningful liquidity from mandates. Without risk capital, market-making will remain rhetoric.

R. Gurumurthy

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

TK Arun

Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Sachin Malhotra

Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

The Bureau

Modi Congratulates Tarique Rahman as Bangladesh Nationalist Party Set to Form Next Government

Government address Borrowing Concerns with fresh bilateral switches

India’s January Inflation 2.75% Under New Series Versus 1.33% in December Under Old Series

RBI Issues Draft Norms to Curb Mis-selling, Ban Dark Patterns, Forced Bundling by Regulated Entities

Gold, Silver ETFs Dominate January MF Flows as Equity Inflows Ease

Auto Retail Sales Rise 18% in January, Rural Demand Takes the Lead

RBI Seen Managing Frictional Liquidity via VRR, VRRR: I-Sec PD

Moody’s Sees Strong Growth Backdrop Supporting Indian Banks’ Stable Outlook

Duvvuri Subbarao on India’s Growth, Inflation Targeting and Centre–State Faultlines

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

Kerala 2026: When History Favours Congress, But Politics Doesn’t

Anti-incumbency and arithmetic favour the UDF, yet infighting and drift threaten to undo it. Kerala’s 2026 election may hinge less on mood than on discipline.

Amitabh Tiwari

The Hidden Risks of Simplifying US Bank Supervision

he Federal Reserve has recently begun to overhaul its approach to bank oversight, raising the bar for enforcement and leaning more heavily on data-driven tools. These changes could impede regulators’ ability to identify emerging risks at a time when the US financial system faces hidden losses and structural weaknesses.

Amit Seru

Used Car Marketplace CarTrade Now Earns More Than India’s Carmakers

Used-car platforms like CarTrade quietly out-earn manufacturers by turning messy second-hand car markets into high-margin data, lending, and transaction infrastructure.

Krishnadevan V

Interview

Baptism by Fire and Beyond

From Lehman to taper tantrums, D. Subbarao reflects on crisis, credibility and the limits of central banking.

BasisPoint Insight

Wheat Under Heat: Rising Temperatures Raise Harvest Concerns

Rising temperatures in key northern states could impact wheat yields just as harvest nears, posing risks to supply, prices, and procurement efforts amid fragile reserves.

G. Chandrashekhar

Budget 2026

Are Indian Cities Finally Being Taken Seriously?

The Budget signals a shift in urban policy, focusing on fiscal transfers, metro-scale planning, and stronger municipal capacity over headline-grabbing schemes.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

Budget 2026

We Don’t Need No Data-Centre Coddling

Data-centre tax holidays represent oodles of government cash to favoured Indian businesses for little public benefit

TK Arun

India–US Trade Deal: Pragmatic Statecraft, Not Diplomatic Surrender

India’s US trade deal looks asymmetric on paper, but macro constraints, capital dependence and geopolitics made acceptance rational statecraft, not surrender.

R. Gurumurthy

Trump's Trade Truce Won't Restore the US-India Relationship

While the interim trade deal may ease tensions, trust – the essential currency of any strategic partnership – is unlikely to be restored any time soon.

Brahma Chellaney

India’s IBC Reforms: Progress Made, Scope for More

The latest IBC amendment bill improves governance and clarity, but continued focus on early initiation and resolution will be desirable to preserve value.

Amol Baxi

MPC Review

Baby Steps, Festina Lente, and RBI’s June Policy Misstep

RBI once prized gradualism. A slower easing path may have aligned markets and transmission better than June’s big-bang move.

Kalyan Ram

TCS as Default AI Partner Could Reshape the Entire Tata Group

How TCS becoming the Tata Group’s default AI partner, amid AI-driven market shocks and heavy dividend dependence, could reshape strategy, sourcing, and governance.

Krishnadevan V

Mahindra Pursues Toyota-Inspired Consolidation to Unlock Manufacturing Scale

The ₹150 billion unified production strategy replaces dispersed facilities to compete through operational leverage, platform adaptability, and asset efficiency

Dev Chandrasekhar

SC Verdict on Tiger Global: A Case of Substance Over Form

D. V. Ramana

Bangladesh at Risk: Elections, Radicalism, and India’s Strategic Nerve

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Are SEBI’s Equity Derivatives Rules Restraining Risk or Reshaping the Future

Indra Chourasia

Inside India’s New CPI Series: Basket Revision and Methodology

Rajesh Kumar*

Washington Extracts Its Pound of Flesh from Dhaka

In exchange for a narrow and conditional promise of zero-duty access for garments made with US fibres, Bangladesh has agreed to open its market widely to the US.

Ajay Srivastava

MPC Review

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

Budget 2026

The Governance Shift in India’s Buyback Tax

How new rates split the monolithic shareholder block into control and portfolio shareholders, reshaping corporate governance

Chandrika Soyantar

Why Indians Know More About Crypto Than Corporate Bonds

SEBI finds Indians recognise cryptocurrency over bonds. Why participation beats predictability in markets and what behavioural finance reveals about risk.

Krishnadevan V

Insurance

Who Gets to Decide What Healthcare You Deserve?

As insurers push clinical protocols and hospitals resist rigid pathways, India faces a deeper struggle over who defines medical necessity in a financialised healthcare system.

R. Gurumurthy

MPC Review

RBI’s First Step Timely, But Guardrails Needed to Prevent Gaming of Fraud

Small-value digital frauds are individually minor, but collectively corrosive to larger public trust. The RBI’s proposed compensation framework is timely, but it must be designed to deter fraud, not become opportunity for others to farm it.

Srinath Sridharan

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

PMI data for January point to continued expansion in activity, though outcomes were weaker than flash estimates.

Datametricx

Kevin Warsh's Dangerous Monetary Nostalgia

The next Fed chair seems to think that the large size of the central bank’s balance sheet reflects a discretionary policy choice which can and should be reversed. In reality, however, the Fed's balance sheet has become part of the financial system’s core infrastructure, and shrinking it would carry serious risks.

Lucrezia Reichlin

India’s Missing Power Is Financial

India has economic scale and military strength, but without a deep bond market, it remains a limited power.

Rahul Ghosh

When Policy Speaks but Markets Listen Selectively

From monetary transmission and liquidity signals to trade diplomacy and corporate growth, India is navigating a complex, uneven economic transition.

Phynix

India Opens Its Market, the US Keeps Its Levers

The interim US–India trade framework eases exporter stress but embeds uneven concessions, as India front-loads market access while US relief stays conditional.

Sangeeta Godbole

MPC Review

RBI and the Bond Market Are Living in Parallel Worlds

Bond yields now reflect supply pressures, not policy signals. Until that changes, the RBI and bond markets will continue to operate in parallel worlds.

Kalyan Ram

Is Affluence a Barrier to Living Well?

In a new book, Brink Lindsey argues that wealthy liberal democracies have essentially solved the problem of material provision and are now experiencing a nervous breakdown. But humans have always struggled with the challenge of living well and wisely.

Michael R. Strain

MPC Review

Why the RBI Chose Optionality Over Precision

With inflation benign and borrowing risks rising, the RBI opted for flexibility over flourish, signalling support without locking itself into specifics.

Kalyan Ram

Budget 2026

Building Boxes in a Storm

A Countercyclical Manufacturing Gambit: India bets ₹100 billion on container production amid global trade flux, eyeing niche value and logistics leverage over volume dominance.

Sharmila Chavaly

MPC Review

Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus

RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage.

Shailendra Jhingan

MPC Review

RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort

Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete.

Dhananjay Sinha

MPC Review

Silence Is the RBI’s Strongest Signal This Week

With rates on hold and markets already speculating far ahead, the Reserve Bank’s best contribution may be to resist the temptation to explain the future.

Kalyan Ram

Budget 2026

A Quiet Budget Signal That Could Wake India’s Corporate Bond Market

A low-key Budget proposal on total return swaps could transform India’s corporate bond market if regulators align infrastructure, liquidity and risk appetite in time.

Karan Mehrishi

Time to Take a SIP of Deposits

As household savings shift to equities, Indian banks face a silent funding squeeze. Reimagining deposits through SIP-style CDs could restore stability.

Prakash Balakrishnan & Ganga Narayan Rath

Budget 2026

STT as Sin Tax, and the Quiet Cost to India’s Markets

The STT hike reads like a sin tax on trading, raising costs, discouraging access, and risking damage to liquidity

Sanjay Mansabdar

MPC Review

Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce

Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint.

Madhavi Arora

MPC Review

RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing

RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore

K. Srinivasa Rao

MPC Review

When Monetary Space is Spent Too Early

Markets are reacting less to fiscal arithmetic and more to a policy sequence that has left limited monetary room just as pressures build.

R. Gurumurthy

Opinion

Malhotra’s RBI Needs Moral Suasion to Repair Policy Transmission?

The RBI’s challenge may not lie in policy intent or available tools. The difficulty appears to be that decisions are not consistently producing the intended market response.

Mint Owl

MPC Review

Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum

RBI’s record liquidity infusion in 2025-26 has failed to ease conditions as dollar sales, cash leakage and fiscal hoarding drain surplus.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Geopolitics

Pakistan’s Baluchistan Moment: Military Power Without Political Imagination

A long-ignored insurgency resurfaces in Balochistan, exposing the limits of military force without political vision—and the urgent need for reconciliation over repression.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Briefing

The Imperatives of a Warsh Fed

Kevin Warsh’s Fed would not rewrite doctrine but would enforce imperatives: restore rate primacy, shrink the balance sheet, and let markets price risk again.

V Thiagarajan

Opinion

Grandfathered, Then Burned: Why the Government Must Lead the Tiger Appeal

India promised tax certainty through grandfathering. The Supreme Court's Tiger Global verdict undermines that. It’s the government that must restore credibility.

TK Arun

Opinion

Tiger Global and the Conception of Economic Freedom in India

At its core, the case exposes the State’s failure to balance two competing freedoms: the freedom of the State to tax, and the freedom of an investor to structure its investments in reliance on the rule of law.

Meghna Bal

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

Budget 2026

Incremental Ambition in an Age Demanding Structural Reset

Budget shows discipline and selective ambition, but sidesteps pricing reform, social protection and the federal reset India needs for resilience.

Arvind Mayaram

Maruti Suzuki's Volume Trap and the Riddle of Shrinking Returns

Maruti rode a GST-driven demand surge to its best-ever quarter. Profitability, however, moved in reverse, raising questions about whether scale is still working.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

Self-Interest, Sentiment, and the Fine Print

STT hike stole headlines, but Budget 2026’s real story lies in quiet reforms, capital focus, and a deeper push for trust-based execution and implementation tracking.

Vijay Chauhan

A ‘Done Deal’ Announced, But Where Are the Details?

A trade understanding between Washington and New Delhi has been announced with confidence abroad and restraint at home. Does this restraint reflect a forced agreement, or the discipline of a state that understands the costs of premature commitment?

Srinath Sridharan

Budget 2026

Budget Promised Customs Overhaul, Delivered Repackaging

The Budget 2026 has delivered an extension of old reforms, reflecting a propensity for cautious and incremental change.

Reform Compass

Budget 2026

Coconuts, Birdwatching and the Lost Art of a Free Sunday

A Budget rich in coconuts, corridors and birdwatching trails, but thin on demand. A long Sunday spent tracking schemes instead of birds.

Kalyan Ram

India–US Trade Deal, the EU Trigger and the Limits of Celebration

The India–US trade deal offers tariff relief, not a clear win. India has conceded ground, gained breathing space, and must now wait for the fine print to determine the balance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

State Elections

Power, Polarisation and the Battle for the Next India

The 2026 state elections across five regions will test incumbency, opposition unity and shape the political mood well before the next general election.

Amitabh Tiwari

Friendship, Peace and the Careful Politics of Modi–Trump Signalling

Beyond tariffs, the Modi–Trump exchange was rich in signalling, with praise for peace and friendship used to steady ties tested by trade tensions and geopolitics.

BasisPoint Insight

Trump’s Trade Tweet Hands India Tariff Relief, But at a High Strategic Cost

The India–US trade truce eases market nerves, yet the concessions implied in Donald Trump’s announcement risk tilting the deal sharply in Washington’s favour.

Dhananjay Sinha

Indian Equities Post Biggest Opening Gain In Five Years On US-IndiaTrade Deal

Richard Fargose

Modi–Trump Tariff Deal Sounds Big, But Trade Details Remain Unclear

Ajay Srivastava

Timeline: Of Trump, Tariff and Taarif

BasisPoint Insight

Budget as Trade Policy: A Practical Roadmap for Global Integration

Students of Madras School of Economics, Chennai

The Week Everyone Decided to Work Overtime

A Sunday Budget was followed by a late-night trade surprise, stretching time and nerves in a week that doesn’t seem to end.

Phynix

Budget 2026

A Fiscally Prudent and Reform-Oriented Budget

A fiscally cautious Union Budget stays the reform course, prioritising capital spending and stability while laying foundations for medium-term growth.

N R Bhanumurthy

Banking Cannot Be Treated as Another Asset Class

Private equity supplies capital, not conscience, and banking regulation cannot rest on market optimism.

Srinath Sridharan

Budget 2026

India’s Deficit Promise Was Kept by Cutting Where It Hurts

The Centre met its deficit promise not through revenue strength, but by cutting transfers and development spend, shifting stress to states.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Budget 2026

Buyback Tax Hike Signals Government’s Capex-or-Consequences Stand

New buyback tax regime is less about revenue and more about discipline. Promoters are being nudged to deploy surplus cash into capacity expansion rather than extract it, just as the state ramps up public investment.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

Budget Arithmetic Leaves Bonds on Edge

India’s 2026–27 fiscal arithmetic offered little comfort to bond investors, with higher borrowing, sticky interest costs and no clear backstop for supply pressures.

Yield Scribe

Budget 2026

Does the Market Reaction Mean the Budget Was a Big Disappointment?

Despite a sharp post-Budget market fall, the government stayed fiscally prudent, raised capex targets, and stuck to deficit goals—signals markets may soon reassess.

Chokkalingam G

Budget 2026

India’s Budget Settled for Stability, Not Momentum

The Budget favoured consolidation over stimulus, leaving growth to fend for itself as demand softens and earnings momentum fades.

Dhananjay Sinha

Budget 2026

Budget for Industry: Control and Command

From microwave parts to shoe uppers, the Budget signals selective interventionism—favouring item-level tweaks over broad industrial reform.

Sharmila Kantha

India’s Defence Budget: From Readiness To Endurance

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

A Chain-Linked Budget

Yuvika Singhal

India Budget Not Much of a Surprise

Madhavi Arora

Future to be Authored, Not Avoided by Probabilistic Pessimism

V Thiagarajan

Budget 2026

India Lowers Import Barriers Where It Matters Most

India’s Budget, though country-neutral, improves market access prospects for US exporters across several high-value sectors.

Ajay Srivastava

Budget 2026

Govt for High Level Banking Panel, The Real Question Is Why Now

When a system is stable, profitable, and already reforming, a new committee raises more questions than it answers.

Mint Owl

Budget 2026

Fiscal Federalism, Transfers, and the Case for an Independent Anchor

With discretionary transfers growing and predictability eroding, India’s fiscal federal system needs an independent anchor to restore trust and stability.

Arvind Mayaram

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

December data showed a sharp improvement in industrial output and fiscal metrics, indicating a firmer economy and improving government finances.

Datametricx

Emerging Markets – From Vulnerability to Resilience

Emerging markets are defying their old risk-on fragility as stronger policies, steadier currencies, and investor flows reshape how global shocks transmit.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Opinion

Adani Green's Growth Machine Faces a Reckoning on Value

India's largest listed renewable company demonstrates execution prowess, but collapsing profits and highly leveraged debt raise questions about premium valuations.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Economic Survey: Pivots, Paradoxes, and Policy Questions

A selective reading of the Survey’s sharper propositions—on exports, manufacturing, institutional capacity, and the paradox of strong macro numbers in a fragmented global order.

Yuvika Singhal

Budget 2026

Why Govt Should Hike Customs Duty on Gold, Vegetable Oils

India’s surging gold and edible oil imports are widening the trade deficit, pressuring the rupee and hurting farmers, making a strong case for restoring higher import duties.

G. Chandrashekhar

When Disclosure Meets Discipline: Recasting India’s Financial Regulatory Architecture

Srinath Sridharan

The Great Global Repurposing of IPOs

Chandrika Soyantar

High Lapse Rate of Life Insurance Policies in India and Why It Matters

Alpana Killawala

A Postcard from Gandhi Ashram, Ahmedabad

Sudipta Sarangi

Budget 2026

Beyond the "Paracetamol" of PLI: How the Budget Can Rewrite India's Manufacturing Story

India needs structural reforms, not subsidies. This Budget must tackle energy, logistics, credit and the rupee to revive manufacturing.

Ajay Shankar

Budget 2026

Time for an Economic Reset

As India prepares Budget 2026, the focus shifts to fiscal discipline, debt anchoring, federal realignment, and trade reform to reset growth on a sustainable path.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

The Injection That Replaced Your Doctor With a Dose Chart

As Indian pharma races to launch semaglutide, obesity stops being a disease to prevent and starts looking like a subscription revenue stream.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

A Tightrope Walk Between Political Compulsions and Economic Imperatives

Budget 2026 walks a tightrope between election-year pressures and economic discipline, juggling jobs, rural distress and middle-class relief without undermining fiscal credibility.

Amitabh Tiwari

Budget 2026

Why Carbon Markets Are Failing the World’s Farmers and What Budget Can Do About It

Despite rapid growth, carbon markets exclude smallholder farmers by design. Budget 2026 can fix this by funding public MRV, institutional aggregation, and risk sharing.

Arvind Mayaram

Spotlight Back on Process Patents

Indian pharma companies, and the regulatory and judicial support system, must wake up to the challenges of personalised medicines and the changes this would necessitate in formulating and approving drug trials and patenting of drugs and production processes.

TK Arun

Why Fight for Oil When the Sun Shines Free?

As wars and economic shocks trace back to fossil fuels, a global shift to renewable energy could reshape geopolitics, easing conflicts and enabling lasting peace.

Nilanjan Banik

Budget 2026

India’s Green Bond Story: Why the Budget Matters More Than Ever

India’s green bond market is testing pricing limits. With demand proving fragile, the Budget’s role in creating incentives and deepening investor participation will determine whether green finance scales beyond symbolism.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

India–EU FTA Anchors Ties, But CBAM Remains the Elephant in the Room

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism remains outside the deal, creating a structural imbalance.

Ajay Srivastava

The Snack Boom Is India’s Tobacco Moment

Global investors are pouring billions into Indian snack brands. Profits look strong, but the long-term health and regulatory risks are mounting.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

State Finances are India’s New Macroeconomic Frontier

India’s fiscal story can no longer be read through the Union Budget alone. State borrowing and spending now shape growth, interest rates and macroeconomic stability.

Duvvuri Subbarao