Japan’s Bond Shock Isn’t a Crisis — But It May Be a Warning Shot

Japan’s bond shock isn’t a collapse, but a warning that fiscal credibility, safe assets and global rate stability can no longer be taken for granted.

R. Gurumurthy

iStock.com

SEBI's Index Proposal Tackles Governance, Leaves Competition Unaddressed

SEBI’s index regulation tackles transparency in a ₹12-trillion passive market, but leaves untouched the oligopoly quietly steering India’s largest pool of investor capital.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

State Finances are India’s New Macroeconomic Frontier

India’s fiscal story can no longer be read through the Union Budget alone. State borrowing and spending now shape growth, interest rates and macroeconomic stability.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Budget 2026

How Federal Drift Is Starving Strategic Priorities

As the Centre expands into state subjects, defence, R&D and strategic autonomy suffer. India’s budget problem is not size, but misplaced priorities.

TK Arun

Budget 2026

Budget Must Rescue Indian Agriculture From Drift and Denial

India’s farm crisis needs more than MSPs and subsidies. Budget 2026 must pivot to outcomes, technology and accountability, or risk surrendering food security and farmer incomes.

G. Chandrashekhar

Capital Discipline Is Not Investor Hostility

The Supreme Court’s ruling in Tiger Global tax case signals institutional maturity, not caprice, as India shifts from capital accommodation to capital discipline.

Srinath Sridharan

Geopolitics

Why MBZ’s Two-Hour Dash to New Delhi Matters

When the President of the United Arab Emirates lands in New Delhi for barely two hours, it is not a courtesy call or a routine stopover. It is a signal.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

TK Arun

Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Sachin Malhotra

Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.

The Bureau

Equities Slide for Third Straight Session Amid Global Geopolitical Jitters

Greenland Rhetoric Triggers Selloff as Investors Cut Risk Exposure

India Insurance Sector Seen Gaining Profitability on Premium Growth, Reforms: Moody’s

Cyber Threats Set to Intensify in 2026 as AI Arms Race Accelerates: Moody’s

Bloomberg Defers Call on India Gilts Inclusion for Global Aggregate Index

Stablecoins Are No Longer Just a Crypto Story

December CPI Rises to 1.33% as Food Deflation Narrows; Quarter Print Above RBI Forecast

Is Geopolitics the Signal? Markets, Money Flows & Gold Explained

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

Budget 2026

Copying the iPhone Model Will Fail Auto Component Manufacturing

India’s iPhone export success tempts copycat policy, but auto components need standards, engineering depth, and integration, not anchor clients

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

India’s Bond Market Will Test the RBI in 2026-27

Nearly ₹30 trillion in bond supply and fragile demand mean yields will remain high in 2026–27 unless the RBI steps in as the buyer of last resort.

Yield Scribe

Budget 2026

India’s External Strength Masks a Growing Vulnerability Problem

Strong reserves give India comfort today, but frequent geopolitical and tech shocks risk steadily eroding its external resilience.

Abheek Barua

Budget 2026

A Budget for Capital Formation, Not Just Fiscal Bookkeeping

India’s real budget challenge isn’t deficit maths but mobilising patient capital, deep savings and long-term risk-taking in a capital-scarce economy.

R. Gurumurthy

History Marches Past Davos

The World Economic Forum meeting in Davos will feature the usual pledges about stakeholder capitalism, purpose-driven business, and sustainable development. But without binding conditionalities, accountability frameworks, and risk-sharing that distinguish genuine value creators from rent extractors, it remains theater.

Mariana Mazzucato

Budget 2026

Why the Budget Must Focus on the Next Mile

As fiscal stimulus tapers, the government must shift focus from headline growth to private investment, jobs and long-term economic quality.

Vijay Chauhan

No ‘10-Minute’ Promises: What India’s Quick Commerce Reset Really Signals

India has softened the promise of instant delivery, not the model behind it. The reset reflects labour concerns, not a retreat from fast, app-led retail.

Abhishek Dey

India’s Securities Code Could Quiet Markets Without Saying a Word

India’s Securities Code consolidates market laws, enforcement and settlement to reduce friction, while raising questions on discretion, precedent and checks.

Krishnadevan V

Budget 2026

Union Budget as the Catalyst for Climate Finance

By using guarantees, blended finance and smarter risk metrics, public money could crowd in private capital and turn climate ambition into bankable projects.

Sharmila Chavaly

India’s Statecraft in a Disorderly World: Why Growth Must Come First

When growth is the binding constraint, India’s foreign policy must prioritise economic flexibility over posture in an increasingly volatile global order.

Arvind Mayaram

Budget 2026

India’s Growth Moment: Cyclical Strength, Structural Test

India’s post-pandemic growth has leaned on supply-side reforms, public capex and upper-income demand, while private investment stays uneven. Budget 2026 will decide if growth turns durable and private-led, or remains state-driven.

Srinath Sridharan

Opinion

Say No to Trump’s Offer of a Seat at the Board of Peace

It is a Board for Undermining the UN and the rest of the multilateral framework

TK Arun

The Yen’s Regime Change from Monetary Tool to Fiscal Currency

Japan's yen transitions from interest-rate currency to fiscal barometer as central bank intermediation recedes and sovereign risk resurfaces

Chandrika Soyantar

The Watcher’s Guide to a World That Won’t Sit Still

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Datametricx

BMC Polls: Voting Pattern Shows Split Between Development and Identity Politics Persists

Amitabh Tiwari

India and Trump’s Gaza Peace Board: A Risky Invitation

Ajay Srivastava

Budget 2026

Budget’s Bond Test Lies in Solving the States’ Borrowing Problem

With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, would it make more sense for the federal government to borrow on behalf of states?

Yield Scribe

Millets: Turning a Policy Mirage into a Daily Food Miracle

Even after increases in minimum support prices, returns over cost for millets are still inferior to crops such as wheat or mustard.

G. Chandrashekhar

Budget 2026

When Credit Scores Gatekeep, India Must Regulate Bureaus As Utilities

Once neutral data pipes, credit bureaus now decide who gets to borrow, build or belong. India must regulate them as public utilities before exclusion hardens.

R. Gurumurthy

Budget 2026 and the Fragile Math of Corporate Legacy

India’s first-gen unicorns have scaled Maslow’s pyramid. The harder test comes now: can they metabolize growth into legacy?

Kirti Tarang Pande

Geopolitics

Why the ‘Islamic Nato’ Will Remain a Strategic Mirage

Turkey–Pakistan–Saudi Arabia and the Limits of Sunni Convergence

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Greenland’s Lesson for India: US Trade Deals Don’t Guarantee Protection

In a volatile global order, restraint, diversification and sovereign decision-making matter more than promises that can be withdrawn overnight.

Ajay Srivastava

Opinion

Indian Oil’s Hefty Green Transition Bill Comes With Struggling Payback

The prospects of IOC's green energy initiative appear shaky, forcing costly capital choices between profitable fossil operations and renewables commitments.

Dev Chandrasekhar

A Requiem for Reading

Reading is fading fast as screens take over daily life. Reviving this habit is essential if societies hope to preserve knowledge, empathy, and cultural memory.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Navigating the Trump-Powell Feud

Even if the feud between the Trump administration and the Fed does not turn out to be catastrophic, the challenge is to transform it into something constructive.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Why Jerome Powell Had to Say No

If the public comes to believe that the central bank will tolerate somewhat higher inflation for political ends, firms will start raising prices in advance. The result will just be higher inflation. Breaking this political-monetary cycle is a key reason why Congress created an independent central bank.

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

What the Fed Moment Reveals About America’s Malignant Normality

Why Trump was never the real anomaly, and how institutions, professionals, and elites slowly learned to treat democratic danger as routine.

R. Gurumurthy

Unemployment Tracker

Urban Jobs Are the Weak Link in India’s Otherwise Stable Labour Story

India’s unemployment rate remains below 5%, but December data shows a fragile urban labour market, with youth and women bearing the brunt despite rising participation rates.

Akshi Chawla

Foreign Investors Keep Fingers Crossed as Tiger Global Loses Tax Case

The SC judgment makes it clear that grandfathering is not a blanket amnesty. If an investment vehicle lacks economic substance or fails beneficial ownership tests, it may still face scrutiny.

BasisPoint Insight

Briefing

Why the RBI Uses Buy-Sell FX Swaps and What They Really Mean

RBI’s buy-sell FX swaps are read as rupee signals. They are not. An explainer on why swaps manage liquidity and hedging, not the exchange rate.

V Thiagarajan

Budget 2026

Why India’s Cities Are Failing the Growth Story

India’s growth has turned decisively urban, but the financial foundations of its cities remain weak. Unless municipal finance, land monetisation and city-level balance sheets are fixed, urban India will become the binding constraint in the next phase of growth.

Srinath Sridharan

India’s Credit Spike: A December Distortion, Not an Economic Signal

A ₹6.3 trillion December credit surge looks dramatic, but history and fundamentals suggest window-dressing and frontloading, not a durable revival in demand.

Dhananjay Sinha

Charting a New Course: Why India’s Shipbuilding Ambitions Need a Strategic Redirection

The world’s shipbuilding order is being rewritten in an age of geopolitical rivalry and friend-shoring. India has a unique chance to write its own chapter — one of a nimble, technologically adept maritime industry integrated into global supply chains as a strategic partner.

Sharmila Chavaly

Trump’s Tantrums: Disruptor or a Symptom of a Disrupted World?

Trump’s volatility isn’t an aberration but a feature of a fraying global order. For India, the lesson lies not in theatrics, but institutional strength.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Opinion

ICICI Lombard’s WhatsApp Slip Will Test SEBI’s Resolve

A WhatsApp status leak at ICICI Lombard raises hard questions on UPSI discipline, draft disclosures, and how serious SEBI is about enforcement.

Krishnadevan V

The 2026 Outlook Calls for Recalibration

For investors, the standard playbook will need to change. Riding a broad structural wave is no longer such an obvious and rewarding strategy. The 2026 outlook is likely to demand a more tactical, bottom-up approach.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Opinion

Disengaging with Iran Only Sensible Way Out

US secondary tariffs put India–Iran trade in a bind, forcing New Delhi to weigh strategic ties against far larger economic exposure to the US market.

G. Chandrashekhar

How the Stock Market Could Sink Trump in 2026

It would be an understatement to say that stocks are priced at lofty valuations; in fact, they are priced for economic perfection.

Desmond Lachman

From Chai Chats to Voter Silence: Unmasking Young India's Quiet Revolt

A dinner-table question opens a window into why educated, ambitious young Indians are disengaging from voting, and how their apathy masks a deeper reckoning.

Kalyani Srinath

How Caste and Soil Texture Skew Consumption Within Indian Households

New evidence shows urbanisation does not equal fairness. Caste norms and lost female bargaining power skew household spending against women and children.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

Global Capability Centres: The Brain Drain Under Our Nose

It is welcome that millions of Indian graduates get decent jobs, but they toil to create intellectual property for foreign firms, rather than to strengthen India’s strategic muscle

TK Arun

Are Central Banks Enabling Unsustainable Government Deficits?

Recent developments suggest that the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases are no longer just a "monetary operation," but an essential component of the US government's fiscal financing. The sooner that the Fed and other similarly situated central banks recognise the trap they have created for themselves, the better.

Raghuram Rajan

Armies Fight Wars. Nations Win Them

Nations don’t win security with soldiers alone but with economic strength, technological depth and social cohesion that can endure and outlast conflict.

Arvind Mayaram

From Pickleball Courts to Power Plays: Why Ease, Endurance and Trust Matter

As global order hardens and power dynamics take centrestage, India must master an unforgiving game with higher stakes.

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators in December pointed to some improvement in urban demand, even as rural demand continued to outpace it.

Datametricx

A Quiet Reform That Puts India’s Insurance Model on Notice

India’s insurance reform gives the regulator power to fix broken incentives, cap commissions, curb mis-selling and reset profits towards protection.

Krishnadevan V

One State, One Bet: How Tamil Nadu Rewired India’s Electronics Map

Tamil Nadu’s electronics surge is no accident. It reflects deliberate policy sequencing, infrastructure depth, and labour-market alignment that have reshaped the state’s export economy.

Rajesh Kumar*

Rupee Depreciation: How Much More?

India’s recent rupee depreciation is not a typical bout of capital flight but reflects deeper unease among global investors despite strong headline growth. Questions around earnings visibility, data credibility, and the limits of India’s exchange-rate management are now converging on the currency.

Abheek Barua

Why Blaming a Missed Call Won’t Explain the India–US Trade Impasse

Trade deals of this scale hinge on unresolved policy differences—on tariffs, agriculture, digital trade and regulatory autonomy—not on symbolic gestures.

Ajay Srivastava

India at the Edge of a Harder World

As global norms erode, hard power returns, and advanced economies fracture under social and political stress, India’s ascent is unfolding in a far less forgiving international order. Can India sustain economic credibility, institutional confidence, and strategic autonomy as power increasingly shapes global outcomes?

Srinath Sridharan

Global coal demand set to slow gradually; India may buck the trend

Global coal demand is nearing a plateau as renewables rise, but India may defy the trend, balancing self-reliance goals with continued coal imports.

G. Chandrashekhar

Geopolitics

Iran’s Internal Turbulence and the Myth of Imminent Regime Change

Recurring protests in Iran revive predictions of collapse, but history, institutions, and security cohesion suggest a system under strain, not one on the brink.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Pizza Hut Fixed Its Biggest Problem and Jubilant FoodWorks Should Worry

Pizza Hut India’s Devyani Sapphire merger unifies operations, boosts decision speed, tests margins and raises pressure on Jubilant FoodWorks and Domino’s.

Krishnadevan V

India’s Bond Yields Are Rising for a Reason, and It Isn’t the Centre

India’s fiscal optics look tidy, but swelling state borrowings are distorting bond yields, overwhelming demand and blunting the RBI’s liquidity toolkit.

Yield Scribe

India’s Jewellery Boom May Be a Gold-Priced Mirage

Jewellery sales jumped 41–51% in Q3, but soaring gold prices did the heavy lifting. Investors should watch volumes, mix shifts, and inventory risk.

Krishnadevan V

Living in Beck’s World

From climate change to financial crises and pandemics, the world today feels uncannily like the risk society Ulrich Beck warned us about decades ago.

R. Gurumurthy

India Cannot Tax Virtual Services of Foreign Firms After Delhi HC ruling

Delhi HC's Clifford Chance ruling shows India must update tax treaties to tax virtual services as current laws trail the digital economy.

Sangeeta Jain

Opinion

Why L&T’s Defence Business Feels Strategic but Not Profitable

L&T has built India’s broadest private defence platform, but slow procurement, falling margins and long gestation test whether patience can still pay investors.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Beyond the Fiscal Target: Aligning Fiscal Discipline with Growth

Shilpashree Venkatesh

BJP’s Mumbai Strategy Faces Its Biggest Test Yet

Amitabh Tiwari

Reading RBI’s Stability Report Without the Rose Tint

R. Gurumurthy

Why Gig Workers Need Binding Regulation, Not Just Promises

Ninupta Srinath

Opinion

Aravallis: Making a Molehill out of a Mountain

When mountains are measured by committees and metres, what’s under threat is not just geology but the idea of environmental protection itself.

TK Arun

India, the World’s Largest Silver Importer, Must not Ignore Processing

India should recognise silver as a critical industrial and energy-transition metal, not merely a precious commodity, and integrate it into its minerals and clean-energy strategy.

Ajay Srivastava

When the Holiday Glow Fades: The Uninvited Drama of 2026

Phynix

Venezuela, Power, and Precedent in the Western Hemisphere

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

India’s Cigarette Tax Hike Tests How Addicted Profits Are

Krishnadevan V

Why India’s 2047 Story Must Be Written in Happiness, Not Just Numbers

Hemachandra Padhan

Why Are Our Markets Behind the Curve?

Despite strong macro fundamentals, Indian markets lag peers. Global rotation, AI exuberance and timing gaps may explain the disconnect, hinting at a delayed rebound.

Michael Debabrata Patra

An End to a Year of Trade Shockers, But the Storm Still Rages

Trade shocks may be fading, but tariff risks, legal battles and supply-chain realignments still loom, keeping global commerce on edge even as 2026 begins.

Vijay Chauhan

Venezuela Shock: Capture of Oil Reserves Core Issue, India Remains Unaffected

India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, but bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions.

Ajay Srivastava

Big Tech Just Lost India's Most Expensive Airwave Battle

India has reserved the upper 6 GHz band for Jio, Airtel, and Vi under a new policy, rejecting Apple and Meta's push for unlicensed spectrum. Infrastructure beats platforms.

Krishnadevan V

From Proxies to Lone Actors: The Changing Face of Terror in 2025

As mass attacks fade, terror is fragmenting into lone actors, micro-cells and tech-enabled networks—harder to detect, harder to deter, and more dangerous.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

India’s 2025 Exports Resilient, but Policy Gaps Remain

India’s exports weathered a turbulent 2025 marked by protectionism and trade disruptions, showing resilience. Delayed policy support and uneven gains from trade agreements, however, leave the sector vulnerable as global uncertainties persist into 2026.

Sharmila Kantha

Fixing India's Credit Blind Spot: Link Invoices to Payments

Link invoices with payments to turn cash flows into real-time credit signals, easing MSME, traders, small and mid-caps liquidity stress and fixing India's trade-credit blind spot.

BL Chandak

Can India's Light-Touch AI Regulation Deliver Brilliance Without the Roulette Risk

India's financial regulators forge light-touch AI frameworks balancing rapid innovation against systemic risks

Indra Chourasia

Geopolitics

Bangladesh Polls: BNP Gets a Foothold, Jamaat a Toehold; Fingers Crossed in Delhi

As Bangladesh heads into elections, the BNP strengthens its position, Jamaat tests the waters, and Delhi watches anxiously—hoping the outcome doesn’t tilt the region’s fragile balance.

Saibal Dasgupta

Regulation for a No-Pause Financial System in a Fast-Moving Economy

India’s financial system cannot be governed by rear-view regulation. The RBI must move from rule-making to system design, balancing stability, innovation and trust.

Anupam Sonal

Why India Should Stop Treating Currency Depreciation as a Growth Strategy

A weaker rupee no longer guarantees competitiveness. In today’s India, depreciation raises inflation and capital costs—turning a once-useful tool into a macroeconomic risk.

R. Gurumurthy

State Anchor to Global Competitor

Privatising a flag carrier is never just a sale. From JAL’s bankruptcy reboot to Air India and PIA, the real test is whether the state can enforce discipline—and then step back.

Sharmila Chavaly