R. Gurumurthy

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy, ex-central banker and a Wharton alum, managed the rupee and forex reserves, government debt and played a key role in drafting India's Financial Stability Reports.

RBI’s Crowded Messaging Risks Diluting Policy Signal

Bundled announcements blur the RBI’s policy signal. A separate financial stability policy and a tighter, single-voice format could restore clarity.

R. Gurumurthy

April 13, 2026 at 4:46 AM IST

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Term Money, Vague Intent

Monetary Policy

RBI’s move to open the term money market widens access, but its effectiveness will depend on design and regulatory clarity aligning with its objectives.

R. Gurumurthy

April 10, 2026 at 3:27 AM IST

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Accounting By Asterisk

Banks seek to defer MTM losses as yields rise, but masking volatility risks weakening discipline and blurring the line between transparency and regulatory convenience.

R. Gurumurthy

April 6, 2026 at 1:41 PM IST

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From Invisible Hand to Iron Fist: When Populism Rewires Capitalism

Populism is reshaping capitalism, expanding state power while weakening institutions. As markets grow politicised, the balance between democracy, governance, and economic freedom faces a critical test.

R. Gurumurthy

April 2, 2026 at 5:21 AM IST

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Managing the Rupee, Constraining the Market

RBI’s move can be seen as a necessary check on speculative bank positions, yet it may also narrow intermediation capacity and make rupee adjustment more abrupt.

R. Gurumurthy

March 30, 2026 at 8:33 AM IST

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When Gold ETFs Stop Being Gold

Gold ETFs promise price efficiency, but persistent gaps between NAV and market price reveal structural limits in India’s market, where weak arbitrage and retail flows distort pricing.

R. Gurumurthy

March 25, 2026 at 3:00 PM IST

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When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

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Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy

Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see countries with stability and growth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 18, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

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The Comfort of Stability, The Cost of Silence

India’s bond market looks stable, but heavy RBI support and captive demand may be weakening price signals, distorting risk, and dulling its role as the system’s benchmark.

R. Gurumurthy

March 17, 2026 at 10:30 AM IST

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Why India Still Resists Short Selling

India’s caution toward short selling reflects its history and market structure, yet limiting it may weaken liquidity, price discovery, and capital market depth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 12, 2026 at 2:35 AM IST

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When AI’s Loyalties Are Tested: Data Sovereignty, Geopolitics and Energy Intensity

As AI systems power finance, defence and public infrastructure, questions of data control, energy supply and national jurisdiction are turning artificial intelligence into strategic infrastructure.

R. Gurumurthy

March 10, 2026 at 1:03 PM IST

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American Mania and the Drift Toward Strategic Hubris

A culture wired for competition and expansion may explain why American power often slides from confident leadership into strategic overreach.

R. Gurumurthy

March 7, 2026 at 3:02 PM IST

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Gold in Equity Funds Risks Expanding India’s Import Burden

Allowing equity mutual funds to invest in gold may aid diversification, yet in an import-dependent economy, it could quietly expand demand and pressure the external balance.

R. Gurumurthy

March 4, 2026 at 11:22 AM IST

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Listing, Legacy and Leverage at Tata Sons

An RBI rule has turned a chairmanship extension into a deeper contest over control, stewardship and the future architecture of India’s most influential conglomerate.

R. Gurumurthy

February 25, 2026 at 11:36 AM IST

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Banking on Perfection in an Imperfect World

Indian bank stocks trade at premium multiples, but slowing incomes, retail credit risks and margin normalisation may test that confidence soon.

R. Gurumurthy

February 24, 2026 at 6:15 AM IST

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Trump, Game Theory, and the Collapse of Credible Threats

Repeated reversals and institutional checks have eroded the credibility of Trump’s threats, turning shock strategy into predictable volatility.

R. Gurumurthy

February 23, 2026 at 5:17 AM IST

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White House

Artificial Intelligence, Human Error, and Why Accountability Still Matters

AI dazzles, markets swing and elites stumble, yet accountability still anchors civilisation in an age of noise and overreach.

R. Gurumurthy

February 19, 2026 at 2:55 PM IST

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PIB

Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market?

RBI’s TRS framework promises synthetic liquidity in corporate bonds, but without deeper cash markets, derivatives may amplify fragility, not depth.

R. Gurumurthy

February 16, 2026 at 3:25 AM IST

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Bond Market-Making Needs Capital, Not Just Mandates

India wants market makers to revive corporate bond trading. Even gilts never got meaningful liquidity from mandates. Without risk capital, market-making will remain rhetoric.

R. Gurumurthy

February 12, 2026 at 7:22 AM IST

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PIB

India–US Trade Deal: Pragmatic Statecraft, Not Diplomatic Surrender

India’s US trade deal looks asymmetric on paper, but macro constraints, capital dependence and geopolitics made acceptance rational statecraft, not surrender.

R. Gurumurthy

February 11, 2026 at 3:02 AM IST

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