A fragile US-Iran ceasefire signals a shift in Gulf power dynamics, currency flows, and strategic alignments, with implications far beyond oil markets
Rajesh Ramachandran
Pavel Muravev/iStock.com
BasisPoint Insight
Going critical, PFBR advances India’s multi-stage nuclear roadmap, reducing reliance on uranium imports and bringing the thorium-based energy transition closer to reality.
TK Arun
Petr Pavlicek-IAEA/Via WikiCommons
With MGNREGA repealed and VB-GRAMG yet to take off, India risks losing its rural employment buffer just as economic shocks begin to intensify.
Rajesh Mahapatra
iStock.com
A weak monsoon and rising input costs risk squeezing rural incomes, lifting inflation, and complicating policy trade-offs in 2026.
Dhananjay Sinha
Truce talks exposed fault lines, not convergence. With negotiations stalling and leverage intact, Iran appears better placed in this phase.
Via WikiCommons
War-driven energy shocks raise costs and uncertainty, forcing a trade-off: accelerate the shift to renewables or delay transition as economies fall back on fossil fuels for stability.
G. Chandrashekhar
PLFS 2025 data reveals why nearly 40% of Indians remain economically inactive.
Akshi Chawla
Crop losses from extreme heat mask deeper risks, as vulnerable households face rising undernutrition even as others maintain consumption through market adaptation.
Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*
Automobile and tractor sales remained buoyant in March, even as the war in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global uncertainty weighed on broader economic activity.
Datametricx
Nothing is decided on the golf course. That would be improper. It is simply made easier long before it reaches a meeting.
Srinath Sridharan
India’s renewable push is stalled by a broken PPA model, leaving 45–55 GW stranded. Without reform, capital, capacity and energy security gains risk slipping away.
Sharmila Chavaly
A financial system where risks continuously shift demands a new approach to stress testing, one that anticipates vulnerabilities rather than merely measuring them.
Anupam Sonal
Wladyslaw Sojka/Via Wikicommons
As geopolitical shocks cloud the outlook, the RBI leans on caution, keeping policy steady for now, while keeping options open.
Mridul Saggar
With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs.
Gaura Sen Gupta
If inflation becomes broad based, policy choices become harder. Credibility considerations emerge even if headline inflation remains below the upper tolerance limit
Dhiraj Nim
linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta
Even as war disruptions may have peaked, uncertainty on supply shocks and their second-round impact remains high, making any knee-jerk policy action potentially counterproductive.
Upasna Bhardwaj
With dollar/rupee assumptions reset and oil elevated, the RBI’s policy focus is shifting from growth-inflation balance to FX stability.
Yield Scribe
Anurag Vijay/CC
Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.
Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.
Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University
Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.
Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy
Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.
Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs
Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.
Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.
Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India
Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.
Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.
Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.
Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.
Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.