Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, is an ex-Indian Trade Service officer with expertise in WTO and FTA negotiations.

US Green-Card Freeze: Limited Immediate Impact, Larger Risks for Indian IT

The US green-card sponsorship freeze for major Indian IT firms has limited immediate impact, but signals tougher immigration curbs ahead, potentially accelerating India-based delivery and GCC growth.

Ajay Srivastava

October 9, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

White House

India Joins US Excess-Capacity Initiative Even as Its Own Manufacturing Faces US Scrutiny

In March 2026, the USTR had launched a Section 301 investigation into structural excess capacity across 16 economies, including India

Ajay Srivastava

October 8, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

istock.com

Ready to Sign an Interim Deal or Stuck at a Plateau?

The India–US Trade Deal Puzzle: Is an interim pact within reach, or have talks hit their limits? Unclear tariff gains raise questions about the price India should pay.

Ajay Srivastava

October 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM IST

Wikimedia Commons

CREA’s Claim of Indian Fuel Exports to Russia via Egypt Needs Scrutiny

Ship movements alone cannot establish the original buyer, cargo ownership, invoicing or whether Russia was the intended destination.

Ajay Srivastava

September 22, 2026 at 3:37 PM IST

iStock.com

Five Trends in India’s Latest Trade Numbers

Taken together, the data show that strong headline export growth masks deeper weaknesses

Ajay Srivastava

September 16, 2026 at 7:45 AM IST

iStock.com

BRICS Targets US Tariffs, Western Sanctions and EU Carbon Tax—Without Naming Them

Diplomatic ambiguity allowed BRICS to criticise specific Western policies without triggering an open confrontation or exposing internal differences among its members.

Ajay Srivastava

September 13, 2026 at 8:56 AM IST

PIB

BRICS Payment Push: Local Currencies, Not a Common Currency

A common currency would require a central monetary authority, common fiscal rules, a shared monetary policy and close coordination of exchange rates.

Ajay Srivastava

September 11, 2026 at 1:23 PM IST

PIB

BRICS Supplies 42% of India’s Imports, but Buys Only 22% of Its Exports

BRICS is becoming an increasingly important source of machinery, industrial inputs, energy and commodities, but it is not absorbing a comparable share of Indian exports.

Ajay Srivastava

September 9, 2026 at 1:37 PM IST

Joint website of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the BRICS member States

A Step In The Right Direction - India Talks of Wider BIS Reforms

Opinion

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has promised a broader review of the Quality Control Order regime as it is currently raising costs for manufacturers, disrupting supply chains and discouraging investment.

Ajay Srivastava

August 28, 2026 at 5:48 AM IST

istock.com

US targets Economic Blockade of Iran as Military Campaign Reaches Stalemate

Opinion

The US offensive may hurt Iran but its success will depend on China which buys most of Iran’s exported oil, for Washington will hesitate to impose its harshest sanctions on major Chinese banks.

Ajay Srivastava

August 25, 2026 at 6:52 AM IST

istock.com

Canada Walks Away From US Trade Talks, and Lessons for India

New Delhi should seek clear, binding and durable tariff concessions before making commitments on agriculture, digital regulation, critical minerals or government procurement.

Ajay Srivastava

August 23, 2026 at 3:06 PM IST

White House

India Eases Rupee Trade Rules, but Wider Adoption Will Need More Work

India has cleared a key regulatory hurdle for rupee trade, but wider adoption will depend on easier access to rupees, hedging, banking processes, and ways to deploy balances.

Ajay Srivastava

August 21, 2026 at 4:53 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Why the White House’s China Transshipment Claims Look Like a Red Herring

Big Allegations, Little Evidence: The transshipment report looks less like proof of widespread fraud and more like a diversionary tactic from the failure of US tariffs to curb import dependence.

Ajay Srivastava

August 14, 2026 at 10:29 AM IST

PIB

A Small UPI Fee Could Carry a Large Economic Cost

Opinion

India should keep UPI and RuPay payments free, enforce the market-share cap and consider annual participation fees on dominant platforms.

Ajay Srivastava

August 9, 2026 at 7:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Merchant Fees Should Not Be levied On UPI Under External Pressure

India should not introduce MDR to address US trade complaints, or protect payments companies. Any decision needs to be based on the cost of running UPI and ensuring its long-term sustainability.

Ajay Srivastava

August 6, 2026 at 8:46 AM IST

iStock.com

India Faces Fresh Tariff Risk as US Senate Advances Russia Sanctions Bill

The bill gives US President broad discretion over whether to impose tariffs and which countries to target.

Ajay Srivastava

July 29, 2026 at 3:01 PM IST

DGFT's Restriction on Import of PVC Resin Will Raise Cost

Domestic resin manufacturers are expected to benefit from stronger pricing power, but downstream manufacturers are likely to face higher raw material costs.

Ajay Srivastava

July 29, 2026 at 1:32 PM IST

iStock.com

US Section 301 Tariffs May Face Challenges Over Unequal Treatment

Washington’s forced-labour tariffs appear designed less to punish violations than to preserve recent trade deals, creating unequal remedies that may invite legal challenge.

Ajay Srivastava

July 26, 2026 at 11:08 AM IST

iStock.com

US Reduces Tariff on India to 10%, Replaces Section 122 Tariffs with Permanent Forced-Labour Duties

The USTR said 60 economies failed to prohibit, or enforce restrictions on, goods produced using forced labour. of these 17 will face 10% tariff and the remaining 43 economies will be subject to 12.5% tariff.

Ajay Srivastava

July 24, 2026 at 5:59 AM IST

istock.com

India's Double Food-Safety Challenge as EU FTA Nears

As the India-EU FTA nears, can Indian farmers compete against Europe's stringent food-safety rules? Ajay Srivastava explains why stronger domestic enforcement is crucial for protecting exports and consumers alike.

Ajay Srivastava

July 23, 2026 at 11:25 AM IST

iStock.com

The Bureau

Indian Shares Fall as Oil Rises; Gilt Yields Surge After Inflation Data

India September CPI inflation Hits 5.54%, Highest Since October 2024

RBI measures may lift rupee but raise costs for genuine hedgers

RBI announces special dollar window for PSU oil cos, regulatory measures for FX market

RBI Raises Repo Rate for First Time in Four Years, Shifts Stance to Tightening

RBI raises 2026-27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2%, flags oil, monsoon risks

India's Balance of Payments to Remain Under Pressure, Keep Rupee Vulnerable - ANZ

RBI Raises 2026-27 GDP Growth Forecast to 7.1%, Flags West Asia, Monsoon Risks

Is the RBI Behind the Curve?

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh