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Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, is an ex-Indian Trade Service officer with expertise in WTO and FTA negotiations.
October 17, 2026 at 6:13 AM IST
On October 16, 2026, President Trump waived punitive tariffs under the newly-enacted Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (SRIA). The move gives India relief from threatened additional duties of up to 100% linked to Russian oil purchases. But the relief is reversible. Washington can restore the tariffs anytime, leaving India and other buyers uncertain about future US action.
What the Order says
The executive order implements the Graham Act while putting its tariff penalties on hold. It sets out a 500% tariff increase on Russian goods and 100% additional duties on goods from major buyers of Russian oil making new purchases from October 18, 2026.
Trump simultaneously invoked Section 115 of the Act to waive these duties. The waiver has no fixed expiry date, but it can be withdrawn. The US Trade Representative will continue monitoring Russian energy purchases, allowing Washington to review the waiver and retain the tariff threat as leverage in future negotiations.
Highlights
Why Washington Stepped Back
Several pressures may explain why Washington waived the tariffs weeks after SRIA became law on September 18. Under its October 9 agreement with Russia, the US decided to buy Russian diesel to ease domestic shortages and high fuel prices. Punishing other countries for buying Russian energy while doing so itself would invite accusations of double standards. Washington had also agreed not to raise tariffs on China until January 10 under a deal reached during President Xi Jinping’s US. visit last month. With US spared, and China shielded, targeting India alone could derail ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.
| Trump’s October 16 waiver gives India temporary relief from threatened additional tariffs of up to 100% over Russian oil purchases. |
| Buying Russian Diesel, Washington Steps Back from Punishing Other Buyers |
| US diesel needs, its tariff truce with China and potential damage to India trade talks may explain the temporary retreat. |
| The waiver has no fixed expiry date, Washington can withdraw it any time to impose tariffs. |
| Russia’s share of India’s oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August as purchases shifted toward the US and UAE. |
| India should protect its energy security and avoid permanent trade concessions in exchange for temporary tariff relief. |
The waiver exposes the uncertainty at the heart of US trade policy: Washington threatens penalties, then retreats when enforcing them becomes inconvenient. SRIA became law on September 18, but the October 9 US-Russia agreement to buy Russian diesel made penalising other buyers hard to defend. China already had protection against US tariff increases until January 10. The message is clear: US interests determine when penalties apply, while the ability to retaliate helps secure protection. China can push back. India risks repeated pressure unless it demonstrates that coercion carries a cost.
For India, the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty. Russia’s share of Indian oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August as India bought more from the US, despite higher prices, and from the UAE. Yet SRIA remains law, leaving Washington free to revive the tariff threat to extract concessions in bilateral trade talks. India should protect its energy security, buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure. Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions.
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