MPC Framework

If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix it

The framework may warrant limited refinement—specifically, the inclusion of a clearly defined escape clause for exceptional circumstances.

Vivek Kumar

August 26, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Framework

There Should Always be Food on RBI’s Inflation Plate

As India debates whether food prices should be excluded from inflation targets, the RBI will find itself balancing political pressure with institutional credibility. The RBI must remember that inflation is not a percentage point; it is the price of a plate of food.

Srinath Sridharan

August 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Powell’s Caution, CBO’s Fantasy and Illusions That Move Markets, Budgets

Powell’s cautious words and the CBO’s tariff arithmetic show how modern finance thrives on misreadings and manufactured optimism.

R. Gurumurthy

August 23, 2025 at 3:58 AM IST

Screengrab

Powell’s Precarious Balance

Powell’s Jackson Hole signal of a rate cut showed a Fed caught between rising unemployment risks and Trump’s tariff-fuelled inflation pressures.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 22, 2025 at 4:41 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

Inflation’s All Zen Unless You Buy Coconuts, Oils or Little Gold on the Side

Record-low inflation sounds dreamy, unless your shopping list includes coconuts, cooking oil, or a bit of gold for the bank locker.

BasisPoint Insight

August 15, 2025 at 8:04 AM IST

iStock.com

Govt’s Fiscal Discipline Pays Off as S&P Upgrades India’s Rating

Rating agency says Trump’s tariffs pose limited risk given India’s consumption-driven growth; reduced Russian crude imports unlikely to impact fiscal health.

BasisPoint Insight

August 14, 2025 at 10:09 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

The Morning Edge

Bessent Flags Room for Aggressive Fed Cuts Amid Soft US Data

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 14, 2025 at 1:48 AM IST

The US Department of the Treasury

RBI Communication Misstep Drives 10-Year Yield Spread Over Repo to 100 bps

The stance pivot drove up long yields, impairing transmission, sapping demand, and raising borrowing costs just as risks build.

Richard Fargose

August 13, 2025 at 2:02 AM IST

The Morning Edge

US Budget Deficit Rises Nearly 20% Despite Tariff Revenue Boost

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 13, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

Powell, Under Construction

Trump’s latest shot at Powell swaps rate charts for blueprints, but the aim is the same: bend the Fed to his campaign tune.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

US-China Extend Tariff Truce, Trump-Putin to Meet Friday

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 12, 2025 at 1:28 AM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty

RBI holds repo with a neutral stance, but October policy could pivot if growth slows or tariffs bite.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 7, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Front-Loaded Easing Has Cornered Its Policy Options

By rushing to cut rates and inject liquidity, the RBI now risks being trapped if growth falters and credibility erodes.

Kalyan Ram

August 6, 2025 at 8:26 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Front-Loaded Easing Has Cornered Its Policy Options

By rushing to cut rates and inject liquidity, the RBI now risks being trapped if growth falters and credibility erodes.

Kalyan Ram

August 6, 2025 at 8:24 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI Expected to Pause, but Weak Data Opens Door to Further Cuts

The MPC is expected to hold rates steady, but easing bias remains amid low inflation, moderating growth, and risks from US tariffs.

BasisPoint Insight

August 4, 2025 at 12:13 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

How Central Banks Jeopardised Their Independence

By expanding their own understanding of their mandate, monetary authorities became caught up in fiscal policy and triggered inflation, precisely what central-bank independence is intended to avert.

Otmar Issing

July 29, 2025 at 4:12 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

Powell Weighs Politics and Data as Trump Heat Clouds Fed’s Path

Political fire and mixed data frame this week’s Fed decision; Powell must hold the centre while keeping September easing firmly in play.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 29, 2025 at 11:02 AM IST

White House

The European Central Bank's Monetary-Policy Revolution

In today’s world, it is unrealistic to expect central banks to maintain price stability at all times using conventional tools, particularly when doing so risks significant collateral damage and undermines public trust.

Marcel Fratzscher

July 29, 2025 at 7:52 AM IST

Norbert Nagel/WikiCommons

Household Inflation Expectations Call for Smarter Surveys, Sharper Strategy

BasisPoint Insight

July 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

Why India’s Low Inflation Isn’t Feeding the Poor Any Better

India’s food prices have fallen, but calorie intake hasn’t risen. This paradox reveals how economic stability isn’t translating into nourishment.

Rajesh Kumar*

July 23, 2025 at 7:50 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

US Fed Officials Warns of Rising Inflation from Tariffs

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 17, 2025 at 1:21 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Kerala’s Inflation Crisis Exposes India’s Blind Spot

Kerala’s surging prices expose India’s inflation blind spot, underscoring the need for tailored, state-level policy responses.

Richard Fargose

July 16, 2025 at 1:29 AM IST

istocks/rchphoto

The Morning Edge

Trump Imposes 19% Tariff on Indonesia; EU Warns of Retaliation

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 16, 2025 at 1:22 AM IST

Fiscal Puritanism Is India’s Bet On Sovereign Strength

India’s quiet fiscal restraint is more than prudence. It is a strategic choice to secure cheaper capital, improve ratings, and achieve long-term growth.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM IST

RBI

India’s Inequality Narrative Collapses Under Economic Realities

Government claims of world-leading equality are misleading, masking rising income gaps, stagnant wages, and economic backsliding.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 9, 2025 at 3:41 AM IST

iStock.com

Big Deficits, Bigger Delusions: Tax Cuts, Tanks, And The Vanishing Monetary Theory Mirage

As the West runs record deficits without a guiding theory, fiscal rules are becoming optional. Is this the era of spending without meaning?

R. Gurumurthy

July 8, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

India Faces Stronger External Headwinds As Global Risks Intensify

As the world economy cools and risks multiply, India’s growth story depends on reviving investment, supporting credit, and building resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

RBI’s Financial Conditions Index Deserves Market Attention

The central bank’s new daily FCI gives a sharper read of monetary conditions and may soon shape policy, signalling more than repo rates alone.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 2:07 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Zen to Zeal: Japan Deals With The World's Most Polite Fiscal Emergency

How the land of negative rates, disappearing buyers, and cheerful handouts is quietly rewriting the rules of fiscal and sovereign debt management.

R. Gurumurthy

June 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM IST

iStocks/tawatchaiprakobkit

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Fed Holds Rates, Flags Caution on Tariff-Led Inflation

BasisPoint Insight

June 19, 2025 at 1:59 AM IST

Why The Current Demand Recovery Rings Hollow

Rural wage gains and urban spending suggest recovery, but weak incomes, falling agri prices, and policy drag limit real momentum.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 18, 2025 at 6:24 AM IST

iStock.com/Debjit Chakraborty

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls for Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Interview

MPC Needs Exchange Rate Lens In 2026 Overhaul, Says Ex-RBI Chief

Subbarao says ignoring the rupee in policy calculus is risky, and calls for a wider MPC mandate in the review of the framework in Part 2 of a four-part interview.

Kalyan Ram

June 4, 2025 at 3:23 AM IST

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

India’s GDP Numbers Look Good—Too Good To Trust

The January–March data is stronger than expected, but deeper fault lines remain in consumption, private investment, and household incomes.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

India’s Growth Pops, But RBI Still Has Reasons To Cut Rates

A 7.4% GDP print in January–March 2025 flatters India’s outlook. With consumption weak and real rates high, RBI can still ease to lift growth.

Yield Scribe

June 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM IST

Interview

Rangarajan Says India Must Not Dilute 3% Fiscal Deficit Cap

Rangarajan warns against replacing India’s 3% deficit anchor, saying it risks crowding out private investment and raising interest rates.

Kalyan Ram

May 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM IST

India’s Growth Anchored In Reform, Stability Amid Global Shocks: RBI Report

BasisPoint Insight

May 29, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Economic Activity Holds Up Despite Turbulence; Consumption Softens

GST collections and export growth remained robust in April, but high-frequency indicators point to weakening rural demand. Inflation print strengthens the case for more rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM IST

IStock.com/paulprescott72

Soft CPI Anchors Rate Cut Hopes, Narrows Path To 5.00% Terminal

April’s disinflation surprise resets the debate around where the rate cycle ends and how soon it gets there

Richard Fargose

May 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

April CPI Inflation Lowest Since July 2019, Stays Below RBI Target For 3rd Month

This is the last CPI release before Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting to be held June 4-6.

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

SBI Research Pushes For 50-BPS Jumbo Rate Cuts To Boost Transmission

The benign inflation outlook, coupled with a moderate growth forecast, has created what the bank describes as a “Goldilocks period” for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Insight

May 5, 2025 at 12:29 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Gold: Security Blanket Or Speculator’s Dream?

Gold’s rise is driven less by fundamentals and more by fear, with central banks and speculators shaping its identity as both safety net and bubble.

R. Gurumurthy

May 2, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

iStock.com/D. Talukdar

India’s Consumption Story Rings Hollow Amid Income Fragility

Headline growth masks an unsettling truth: weak income growth is eroding the base of India’s consumption pyramid, raising questions on sustainability.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

Core Issue With India’s Inflation Isn’t Going Away

India’s headline inflation may have cooled, but seasonal effects mask the stickier rise in core prices—leaving RBI’s policy pivot on shaky ground.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM IST

iStock.com/:Radiokukka

CPI Inflation Stays Below RBI Aim, Core Stays Out

Retail headline inflation falls to near six-year low, but core inflation stays above the 4% mark. Will this boost the case for further rate cuts?

BasisPoint Insight

April 15, 2025 at 11:59 AM IST

India’s Wholesale Inflation Eases To Six-Month Low Of 2.05% In March

BasisPoint Insight

April 15, 2025 at 9:19 AM IST

Moody’s Analytics Slashes India’s 2025 Growth Outlook by 30 Bps Amid External Headwinds

BasisPoint Insight

April 10, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Steps Up Easing Cycle with Another 25 bps Rate Cut, Stance Accommodative

RBI's move reflects the MPC’s view that inflation risks have moderated and that there is a need to address domestic growth amid global uncertainties.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Seen Cutting Repo Rate By 25 Bps As Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Most analysts anticipate a cumulative repo rate reduction of at least 75 bps by March 2026 if inflation remains within the target band.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

RBI

India’s GDP and inflation set to fall after US tariff shock

BasisPoint Insight

April 4, 2025 at 3:39 AM IST

Earnings Recovery May Stall Under The Weight Of Fiscal Fatigue

Market hopes for an earnings revival rest on shaky ground as fiscal drag, weak job creation and tepid wage growth tighten the income squeeze.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 29, 2025 at 8:27 AM IST

iStock.com/Debjit Chakraborty

RBI's Rate Cut Fails To Ease Market Rates Amid Tight Liquidity Grip

Despite easing inflation and a long-awaited rate cut, tight liquidity and weak transmission have kept market rates stubbornly high under RBI’s watch.

Manoj Rane

March 28, 2025 at 5:32 AM IST

CPI Inflation Slips In Below RBI Target, Core Slips Out

February inflation fell below the RBI’s target. With growth in focus, another rate cut in April looks increasingly likely.

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 12:44 PM IST

Retail Inflation Eases Below RBI's Target As Vegetable Prices Cool Down

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM IST

Opinion

MPC Must Abandon Neutrality To Reignite Growth Before It’s Too Late

With weakening growth and easing inflation, the RBI must abandon caution to spur investments and the economy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Inflation

Key Drivers Of Sequential Fall In CPI And What Played Spoilsport

BasisPoint Insight

February 12, 2025 at 11:01 AM IST

The Bureau

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

Rupee Hits Record Low as Tariff Shock Fuels FPI Outflows

Trump Tests the Guardrails of US Credibility

India’s Industrial Output Growth Hits Four-Month High of 3.5% in July

Fed Eyes Data Before Rate Decision; Trump’s 50% Tariff on India in effect

Fitch Affirms India Rating Days After S&P Upgrade, Points to Tariff Risks

Lifting the Lid on Regulatory Silence

How Some Importers Mined a Scheme for Exporters to Dodge Exchequer

Sanjeev Sanyal on Trump, India’s Growth Path, and Process Reforms

Sarci-Sense: About Silent Goodbyes & How Middle-Age Friendships Disappear

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