Petroyuan’s Rise May Matter More Than Dollar’s Decline

The bigger story is not the fall of the dollar, but the emergence of parallel trade and energy settlement systems centred around China.

Saibal Dasgupta

May 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM IST

iStock/Pla2na

Who Speaks for Markets Inside the RBI?

As supervision dominates RBI leadership, the central bank risks losing the market instincts needed for liquidity and transmission.

Banker Emeritus

May 7, 2026 at 10:24 AM IST

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

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The Rupee’s Mauna Kea Problem: What We Don’t See Matters More

The rupee debate fixates on visible costs, ignoring hidden fiscal risks, political compulsions and market psychology that make inaction far riskier.

Vivek Kaul

April 30, 2026 at 3:52 AM IST

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RBI’s Offshore FX Mandate Risks Turning Transparency Into Tension

India’s push to monitor offshore rupee trades may improve visibility but also risk regulatory friction, investor unease, and unintended capital-flow consequences.

V Thiagarajan

April 30, 2026 at 3:36 AM IST

Opinion

India’s Market Rally Masks Rupee Stress and a Deeper Policy Drift

Equity exuberance is obscuring currency weakness and rising external risks, as policy complacency risks amplifying shocks in an already fragile global setting.

R. Gurumurthy

April 29, 2026 at 6:16 AM IST

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RBI’s Currency Curbs Leave Markets Nursing More Than Losses

Forced FX unwinds have imposed losses, but the deeper impact is behavioural. Markets may turn cautious amid concerns about risk, liquidity, and RBI initiatives.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

Why a Weaker Rupee Doesn’t Always Mean Stronger Growth

Exchange rate depreciation is often read as an engine of growth. For India, import dependence and balance sheet vulnerabilities tell a different story.

V Thiagarajan

April 14, 2026 at 2:22 PM IST

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RBI’s Currency Curbs Risk a Deeper Trust Deficit

Aggressive intervention may steady the rupee in the short term, but abrupt curbs on bank trades risk eroding market confidence and policy credibility.

Accrued Interest

April 6, 2026 at 10:08 AM IST

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When FX Rules Fragment the Balance Sheet

RBI’s NDF curbs shift risk from economic reality to geography, raising a quiet but persistent confidence cost for the rupee.

Quixotic Banker

April 5, 2026 at 6:06 AM IST

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Calibrating FX Rules Without Penalising Genuine Hedgers

RBI's curbs rightly target speculative misuse in FX markets. But blunt restrictions risk leaving genuine hedgers unprotected and amplifying unhedged exposures across the economy.

Quixotic Banker

April 4, 2026 at 5:25 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Case for Monetary Sovereignty in a Changing Order

The future of power in finance lies not in currencies alone, but in who controls how they settle.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

April 2, 2026 at 3:10 AM IST

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Managing the Rupee, Constraining the Market

RBI’s move can be seen as a necessary check on speculative bank positions, yet it may also narrow intermediation capacity and make rupee adjustment more abrupt.

R. Gurumurthy

March 30, 2026 at 8:33 AM IST

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Inflation’s Triple Shock: Crude, Crops and Currency Pressures

A volatile oil market, fragile farm outlook and weakening rupee threaten to stoke inflation, testing policy credibility and burdening India’s most vulnerable.

G. Chandrashekhar

March 27, 2026 at 8:21 AM IST

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Quo Vadis the IMF?

This essay questions whether the IMF’s evolving surveillance and labelling practices now undermine exchange-rate stability instead of safeguarding it.

Michael Debabrata Patra

March 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM IST

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When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

More Reserves Won’t Buy Stability Without Credibility

Rising FX reserves have not guaranteed currency stability. Markets respond more to central bank credibility, signalling and policy clarity than to sheer reserve size.

V Thiagarajan

March 24, 2026 at 7:02 AM IST

iStock.com

Rupee’s Turn from Shock Absorber to Amplifier in Oil Shock

As oil prices surge, the rupee risks shifting from shock absorber to amplifier. RBI must balance depreciation and reserves to contain inflation and volatility.

Sakshi Gupta

March 24, 2026 at 2:51 AM IST

iStock.com

Reading Gold Right Means Reading Oil Too

Gold’s rally is not a simple safe-haven story. The gold–oil ratio suggests markets may be misreading risk, inflation and what comes next.

V Thiagarajan

March 23, 2026 at 1:21 PM IST

iStock.com

When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

Currency Valuation: From Competitiveness to Coping Mechanisms

A tour of REER, FEER and BEER shows why currency valuation models often explain discomfort better than they explain exchange rates.

R. Gurumurthy

January 28, 2026 at 11:52 AM IST

Budget 2026

Budget’s Bond Test Lies in Solving the States’ Borrowing Problem

With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, would it make more sense for the federal government to borrow on behalf of states?

Yield Scribe

January 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

istock

Briefing

Why the RBI Uses Buy-Sell FX Swaps and What They Really Mean

RBI’s buy-sell FX swaps are read as rupee signals. They are not. An explainer on why swaps manage liquidity and hedging, not the exchange rate.

V Thiagarajan

January 14, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

Rupee Depreciation: How Much More?

India’s recent rupee depreciation is not a typical bout of capital flight but reflects deeper unease among global investors despite strong headline growth. Questions around earnings visibility, data credibility, and the limits of India’s exchange-rate management are now converging on the currency.

Abheek Barua

January 6, 2026 at 7:30 AM IST

Why India Should Stop Treating Currency Depreciation as a Growth Strategy

A weaker rupee no longer guarantees competitiveness. In today’s India, depreciation raises inflation and capital costs—turning a once-useful tool into a macroeconomic risk.

R. Gurumurthy

December 31, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

How Three Invisible Layers of the Yen Carry Trade Shape Global Capital Flows

The yen is more than a currency. Its carry trade links monetary policy to global liquidity, risk sentiment, and cross-border capital movement, including India.

Chandrika Soyantar

December 26, 2025 at 9:44 AM IST

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MPC Review

RBI policy: Goldilocks, FX, and the Windscreen

A rare Goldilocks mix of strong growth and ultra-low inflation set the stage for a finely balanced policy call, even as a sliding rupee tested the RBI’s nerve.

Vivek Kumar

December 7, 2025 at 5:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Back to the Future – The Tokyo Drift

A look at Japan and China shows how familiar policy instincts can trap economies in slow-growth loops, even when policymakers believe they know better.

V Thiagarajan

December 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

Rupee Volatility Tells a Trade Story as Dollar/Rupee Enters the Nineties

Dollar/rupee crossing 90 is less worrying than the tariff risks driving volatility, as India’s exporters face pressure from a prolonged dispute with Washington.

Manoj Rane

December 6, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Markets Have the Rupee-Wheel, RBI Keeps the Brakes

RBI will not defend rupee levels, only volatility. For India Inc, the message is blunt: hedge systematically and stop assuming a central-bank safety net.

Babuji K

December 6, 2025 at 3:57 AM IST

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Should India Consider FX Auctions?

FX auctions helped Latin markets steady volatility. With sharper offshore swings hitting the rupee, India may benefit from adding them to its defence toolkit.

Babuji K

November 28, 2025 at 4:16 AM IST

Briefing

India’s Exchange Rate Regime Faces a Moment of Truth

With the rupee trading like a caged bird and IMF reclassification looming, India faces a reckoning on what its exchange rate regime really is.

V Thiagarajan

November 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

Rupee Strains and the Liquidity Paradox Testing the RBI’s Resolve

As the rupee faces tariff-induced pressure, the RBI’s interventions are reshaping domestic liquidity, revealing the delicate balance of currency defence and monetary control.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

November 12, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Briefing

Myth of Currency Debasement

Markets often mistake monetary flexibility for monetary decay. The greater risk lies in misreading cycles as signs of systemic erosion.

V Thiagarajan

October 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM IST

Rupee At A Crossroads: Stability, Competitiveness, And The Fragility Of Reserves

India’s reserves are built on capital inflows rather than trade surplus, making them vulnerable to sudden exits.

Abheek Barua

February 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

The Bureau

Equities End Lower as Oil Surge and Rupee Weakness Weigh on Sentiment

India Trade Deficit Widens in April, Drags Rupee to Record Low

Govt Imposes Fresh Curbs on Gold Imports Under Advance Authorisation Scheme

India's Precious Metals Duty Hike Widens Dubai Arbitrage

India Approves ₹375 Billion Scheme to Incentivise Coal Gasification Projects

RBI Governor Says Will Need to Act If Price Pressures Get Entrenched: Bloomberg

Govt Raises Gold Import Duty Amid Oil Shock, Forex Concerns

Govt Approves MSP for Kharif Season, Raises Support Price for Paddy by ₹72/100 kg

Deficient Monsoon, Iran War: A Double Shock to India’s Rural Economy

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk