Managing the Rupee, Constraining the Market

RBI’s move can be seen as a necessary check on speculative bank positions, yet it may also narrow intermediation capacity and make rupee adjustment more abrupt.

R. Gurumurthy

March 30, 2026 at 8:33 AM IST

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Inflation’s Triple Shock: Crude, Crops and Currency Pressures

A volatile oil market, fragile farm outlook and weakening rupee threaten to stoke inflation, testing policy credibility and burdening India’s most vulnerable.

G. Chandrashekhar

March 27, 2026 at 8:21 AM IST

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Quo Vadis the IMF?

This essay questions whether the IMF’s evolving surveillance and labelling practices now undermine exchange-rate stability instead of safeguarding it.

Michael Debabrata Patra

March 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM IST

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When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

More Reserves Won’t Buy Stability Without Credibility

Rising FX reserves have not guaranteed currency stability. Markets respond more to central bank credibility, signalling and policy clarity than to sheer reserve size.

V Thiagarajan

March 24, 2026 at 7:02 AM IST

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Rupee’s Turn from Shock Absorber to Amplifier in Oil Shock

As oil prices surge, the rupee risks shifting from shock absorber to amplifier. RBI must balance depreciation and reserves to contain inflation and volatility.

Sakshi Gupta

March 24, 2026 at 2:51 AM IST

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Reading Gold Right Means Reading Oil Too

Gold’s rally is not a simple safe-haven story. The gold–oil ratio suggests markets may be misreading risk, inflation and what comes next.

V Thiagarajan

March 23, 2026 at 1:21 PM IST

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When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

Currency Valuation: From Competitiveness to Coping Mechanisms

A tour of REER, FEER and BEER shows why currency valuation models often explain discomfort better than they explain exchange rates.

R. Gurumurthy

January 28, 2026 at 11:52 AM IST

Budget 2026

Budget’s Bond Test Lies in Solving the States’ Borrowing Problem

With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, would it make more sense for the federal government to borrow on behalf of states?

Yield Scribe

January 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

istock

Briefing

Why the RBI Uses Buy-Sell FX Swaps and What They Really Mean

RBI’s buy-sell FX swaps are read as rupee signals. They are not. An explainer on why swaps manage liquidity and hedging, not the exchange rate.

V Thiagarajan

January 14, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

Rupee Depreciation: How Much More?

India’s recent rupee depreciation is not a typical bout of capital flight but reflects deeper unease among global investors despite strong headline growth. Questions around earnings visibility, data credibility, and the limits of India’s exchange-rate management are now converging on the currency.

Abheek Barua

January 6, 2026 at 7:30 AM IST

Why India Should Stop Treating Currency Depreciation as a Growth Strategy

A weaker rupee no longer guarantees competitiveness. In today’s India, depreciation raises inflation and capital costs—turning a once-useful tool into a macroeconomic risk.

R. Gurumurthy

December 31, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

How Three Invisible Layers of the Yen Carry Trade Shape Global Capital Flows

The yen is more than a currency. Its carry trade links monetary policy to global liquidity, risk sentiment, and cross-border capital movement, including India.

Chandrika Soyantar

December 26, 2025 at 9:44 AM IST

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MPC Review

RBI policy: Goldilocks, FX, and the Windscreen

A rare Goldilocks mix of strong growth and ultra-low inflation set the stage for a finely balanced policy call, even as a sliding rupee tested the RBI’s nerve.

Vivek Kumar

December 7, 2025 at 5:48 AM IST

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Back to the Future – The Tokyo Drift

A look at Japan and China shows how familiar policy instincts can trap economies in slow-growth loops, even when policymakers believe they know better.

V Thiagarajan

December 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

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Rupee Volatility Tells a Trade Story as Dollar/Rupee Enters the Nineties

Dollar/rupee crossing 90 is less worrying than the tariff risks driving volatility, as India’s exporters face pressure from a prolonged dispute with Washington.

Manoj Rane

December 6, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Markets Have the Rupee-Wheel, RBI Keeps the Brakes

RBI will not defend rupee levels, only volatility. For India Inc, the message is blunt: hedge systematically and stop assuming a central-bank safety net.

Babuji K

December 6, 2025 at 3:57 AM IST

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Should India Consider FX Auctions?

FX auctions helped Latin markets steady volatility. With sharper offshore swings hitting the rupee, India may benefit from adding them to its defence toolkit.

Babuji K

November 28, 2025 at 4:16 AM IST

Briefing

India’s Exchange Rate Regime Faces a Moment of Truth

With the rupee trading like a caged bird and IMF reclassification looming, India faces a reckoning on what its exchange rate regime really is.

V Thiagarajan

November 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

Rupee Strains and the Liquidity Paradox Testing the RBI’s Resolve

As the rupee faces tariff-induced pressure, the RBI’s interventions are reshaping domestic liquidity, revealing the delicate balance of currency defence and monetary control.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

November 12, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Briefing

Myth of Currency Debasement

Markets often mistake monetary flexibility for monetary decay. The greater risk lies in misreading cycles as signs of systemic erosion.

V Thiagarajan

October 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM IST

Rupee At A Crossroads: Stability, Competitiveness, And The Fragility Of Reserves

India’s reserves are built on capital inflows rather than trade surplus, making them vulnerable to sudden exits.

Abheek Barua

February 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

The Bureau

Sensex Hits 2-Year Low, Rupee Breaches 95 on West Asia War Concerns

March Gross GST Collection Rises 8.8% With Imports Driving Higher Revenue Growth

WTO’s MC14 Ends in Deadlock, Exposes Deep Fault Lines

Govt to borrow ₹8.2 trillion, 51% of full year aim in April-September, cuts ultra-long bond supply

Pressure Mounts on India as WTO Talks Focus on E-Commerce and Investment Deals

Excise Duty Cut on Petrol, Diesel to Cost the Govt ₹1.55 Trillion: Emkay Global

RBI Seeks HDFC Bank Board Meeting Records: Moneycontrol

Government retains inflation target at 4% for another five years

From Oil Shock to Fed Dilemma: How War Is Reshaping Markets | Market Makers

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