The Morning Edge

Markets Cautious Despite Hopes of Trump–Xi Meeting

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 14, 2025 at 1:34 AM IST

White House

Why the Dollar Is Quietly Winning Again

Political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and a genuine US productivity revival, are fuelling a dollar rebound few expected.

Yield Scribe

October 13, 2025 at 5:02 AM IST

iStock/Pla2na

The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Mood Grips Markets as US-China Trade War Fears Resurface

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 13, 2025 at 1:44 AM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

Optics Over Power: Trump’s Elusive Quest for the Nobel Peace Prize

Donald Trump’s latest snub from the Nobel Peace Committee is more than a personal setback. It’s a quiet assertion of Europe’s independence from American pressure.

Saibal Dasgupta

October 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

Kremlin

Interview

ORF Chairman Joshi on How to Win in a Predatory, Bipolar World

Smaller nations must build alliances, contain the predator, and rewrite the rules of engagement, says Sunjoy Joshi.

Kirti Tarang Pande

October 9, 2025 at 11:50 AM IST

The EU Must Stand Up to Trump

It makes no sense for an economic bloc as large as the European Union to fold to a reckless US president who is driven entirely by personal obsessions and whose word means nothing.

Joseph E. Stiglitz

October 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM IST

White House

Briefing

From Energy Trade to Strategic Trust: India and Qatar’s Expanding Ties

India and Qatar are entering a new phase of bilateral engagement. Here’s an explainer on their geopolitical and economic ties, as the two countries prepare to announce a trade deal this week.

Ajay Srivastava

October 8, 2025 at 10:16 AM IST

iStock.com

Death Syrup: Why Licences Cannot Be Wished Away in All Sectors

The government should mandate traceability of every ingredient used in the pharma industry by deploying tokenisation facilities of the blockchain.

TK Arun

October 8, 2025 at 6:04 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Investors Turn Defensive on US Shutdown, Europe’s Political Volatility

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 7, 2025 at 1:39 AM IST

Tragicomix

Nobel Committee’s Trump Problem

From peace talks to bleach cures, Trump’s legacy baffles the Nobel Committee: too vast for one medal, inspiring a new prize for sheer unintended innovation.

R. Gurumurthy

October 4, 2025 at 7:13 AM IST

Export Monitor

Indian Exports May be More than Just Faltering

India’s exports have weakened across major markets. A temporary surge in shipments to the US provided some relief, but rising tariffs have added pressure on growth prospects.

Rajesh Mahapatra

October 4, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Shrimp Tariffs Reveal the Hidden Costs of Global Trade Wars

Trump’s shrimp tariffs hurt Indian farmers, distort trade, raise US prices, and expose risks in global supply chains and export dependence.

Hemachandra Padhan, Ajit Kumar Babu, and Saanvi Sharan

October 4, 2025 at 6:34 AM IST

iStocks/neil bowman

The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Sentiment Deepens on US–Russia Tensions, Shutdown, and Fed Uncertainty

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 3, 2025 at 1:04 AM IST

Kremlin

Trump's Beggar-the-Poor Remittance Tax

The Trump administration’s remittance tax is only the latest in a series of punitive US measures aimed at the developing world. More are surely to come.

Hippolyte Fofack

September 30, 2025 at 7:08 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Global Markets Risk-Off as US Shutdown Looms, Safe-Haven Gold Surges Above $3,800

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 30, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

iStock.com/rvimages

Most Indian Pharma Exports May Escape US Tariff, But Uncertainty Clouds Branded Generics

US 100% tariff plan sparks confusion: if branded generics are treated as patented drugs, India is safe; if as branded imports, then some pharma exports face trouble.

Ajay Srivastava

September 26, 2025 at 7:56 AM IST

Istock.com/moussa81

The Morning Edge

Trump’s Tariffs on Drugs Hit Asian Shares; Strong US Data Clouds Fed Outlook

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 26, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asian Shares Struggle for Direction as Tech Weakness Meets Geopolitical Risks

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 25, 2025 at 1:56 AM IST

No More Taarif for Trump

Trump’s H-1B diktat may hurt India’s tech firms, but it hurts America more—closing doors to talent, raising costs, and straining a fragile friendship.

Manoj Rane

September 23, 2025 at 11:00 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

Asian Equities Advance Amid Uncertainty; US Visa Policy Clouds Indian IT Outlook

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 22, 2025 at 2:05 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

The $100,000 Question: How Trump's H-1B Fee Hike will Change the Future of Hiring

Is the $100,000 H-1B fee hike a turning point for Indian IT, or just another breadcrumb in a trail marked by layoffs, automation and offshoring?

Nilanjan Banik

September 21, 2025 at 6:56 AM IST

iStock.com/Kandarp Gupta

India’s Remittance Lifeline Faces New Strains

US tax and visa shocks threaten India’s $135 billion remittance lifeline, exposing risks in its most stable external buffer.

Babuji K

September 21, 2025 at 5:32 AM IST

White House

Little Impact on IT, But Trump’s H-1B Visa Fee Could Reverse Indian Brain Drain

The new $100,000 H-1B visa fee may cause short-term headaches for Indian IT firms, but it could strongly deter students from pursuing US admissions without a clear job path.

TK Arun

September 20, 2025 at 11:11 AM IST

White House

What Trump Claims to Defend a $100,000 H-1B Fee

BasisPoint Insight

September 20, 2025 at 6:32 AM IST

When America’s Farm Muscle Becomes its Geopolitical Weakness

The US, long dominant in farm exports, now faces a bruising reckoning as China turns elsewhere for its needs, exposing America’s fragile dependence.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 19, 2025 at 6:55 AM IST

iStock/beklaus

Powell’s Quiet Win Against Trump’s Noise

Powell rallied colleagues for a cautious cut, resisting Trump’s pressure. His quiet resilience showed the Fed can still steer its own course.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 18, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

White House

Fed Shifts Toward Job Market Risks With First Rate Cut Since December

Fed cuts rates for the first time since December, shifting focus from sticky inflation to rising job market risks as unemployment edges higher.

BasisPoint Insight

September 18, 2025 at 2:07 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Fed Risks Losing Independence Under Powell’s Double Error

Powell’s legacy may be defined by delays on both inflation and growth, leaving the Fed exposed to political pressures and erosion of autonomy.

Yield Scribe

September 17, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

TikTok Win-Win Deal Seen, but Fed Rate Decision Keeps Markets on Edge

Richard Fargose

September 17, 2025 at 1:19 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

India–US Talks: Breakthrough Unlikely Unless Trump Drops Extra 25% Tariffs

Making of a stalemate? India wants the 25% Russia-linked penalty dropped — but that won’t be easy for Washington, since it is already citing the tariff in its Supreme Court defence

Ajay Srivastava

September 16, 2025 at 3:47 PM IST

Trump, LTSE and the Fight to Slow Capitalism’s 90-Day Clock

From Trump’s six-month plan to LTSE’s bold rethink, the battle over quarterly earnings asks if markets can ever break free from short-termism.

R. Gurumurthy

September 16, 2025 at 9:01 AM IST

istocks/krblokhin

BRICS - Building Brick by Brick

BRICS is building financial muscle with $5.1 trillion reserves and 90% local trade settlements, yet tariffs and weak coordination test its resolve.

Babuji K

September 16, 2025 at 5:52 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Urges Fed for Larger Rate Cut; US and China Reach TikTok Framework Agreement

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 16, 2025 at 1:42 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump’s Queen of Hearts Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs may sting, but India channels Ali’s art—floating lightly and stinging sharply when the timing is right.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 15, 2025 at 3:21 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Global Trade Is Winning Trump's War On It

When it comes to tariffs, Trump’s bark has so far proven worse than his bite.

Daniel Gros

September 10, 2025 at 3:32 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

China's "Trump" Card

Xi used the SCO summit to pitch a sovereignty-first multipolar alternative to the Western-led order.

Ian Bremmer

September 10, 2025 at 3:12 PM IST

PMO

Why India Must File Amicus Brief in US Tariff Appeal

By remaining silent, India risks allowing Trump’s narrative to stand uncontested at the highest court in America.

Ajay Srivastava

September 10, 2025 at 10:07 AM IST

iStock.com

A New Approach in Trump’s War On Powell

Trump’s latest jab at Powell swaps brute force for reductio ad absurdum, arming his Fed critique with jokes, jargon, and a dash of intellectual flair.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 10, 2025 at 2:08 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Urges EU Tariffs on China, India; Gold Hits Record Amid Rate-Cut Bets

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 10, 2025 at 1:27 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Trump Had to Blink, But What Next for India

Is India’s calm defiance of US tariffs a lesson in strategic patience, forcing Trump to soften his stance? Or the thaw is just the opening act in a tougher trade battle ahead?

Nilanjan Banik

September 9, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

India’s $10 Billion Textile Lifeline at Risk from Punitive US Tariffs

Trump’s tariff threats imperil India’s textile exports, endanger millions of jobs, and demand urgent domestic reform beyond stopgap incentives.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 9, 2025 at 8:18 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump Comes Calling with Trick or Treat, But Tweets Can’t Mend Fractures

The Trump-Modi camaraderie on social media may project warmth, but structural divergences and recent trade conflicts reveal its fragility.

Srinath Sridharan

September 8, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

PIB

Trying to be a “Good Economist” in the Times of US Tariffs

Can tariffs be judged only by their visible impact? Bastiat’s wisdom suggests otherwise: true economists look beyond first effects to hidden costs, shifts, and long-term risks.

Vijay Chauhan

September 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Fed Cut Hopes and Trump’s Japan Tariff Rollback Lift Market Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 5, 2025 at 12:51 AM IST

iStocks/tawatchaiprakobkit

The Morning Edge

Markets Eye Fed Easing as Jobs and Manufacturing Data Signal Slowdown

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 4, 2025 at 12:53 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s India Rant

While the US has a trade deficit of $45 billion with India, once all commercial earnings are counted, Washington runs a healthy $35–40 billion surplus.

Ajay Srivastava

September 2, 2025 at 6:15 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

India’s Trade Playbook Exposed by Trump’s Tariff Shock

Trump’s fresh tariff blow exposes India’s risky over-dependence on key markets and imports, turning trade reliance into economic vulnerability.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 1, 2025 at 12:26 PM IST

White House

SCO Summit: Beyond the Optics of Alignments

The Tianjin summit will offer many images of warmth between India, China and Russia, but the substance lies in India’s careful balancing of sovereignty and flexibility.

Srinath Sridharan

September 1, 2025 at 7:56 AM IST

PMO

The Global Economy Shrugged

Global growth has defied Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with households, firms, and markets adapting swiftly, leaving economists puzzled by the resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 1, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Why India Should Continue to Buy Oil from Russia

India’s Russian oil imports aren’t about cheap barrels—they’re about strategic autonomy. Stopping now could weaken India’s leverage between the US, China, and Russia.

TK Arun

August 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Setback for Trump Tariffs in US Court, Hope for Traders

The Supreme Court, expected to take up the case in the second half of October, will now decide whether Trump’s expansive reading of emergency power survives: GTRI

BasisPoint Insight

August 30, 2025 at 8:37 AM IST

Why India and China Will Struggle to Mend Relations

Despite new diplomatic gestures, can India and China truly reset ties when borders remain tense, Pakistan looms large, and trade imbalances keep mistrust alive?

Sanjay Pulipaka

August 30, 2025 at 5:03 AM IST

PMO

Appeasing China Won't Help India Counter Trump

Past experience indicates that China is far more likely to exploit any hint of Indian weaknesses than act as a reliable partner.

Brahma Chellaney

August 29, 2025 at 1:33 PM IST

PMO/Via WikiCommons

The Incalculable Costs of Corrupt Statistics

When governments start believing their own distorted numbers, the consequences can be disastrous.

Diane Coyle

August 26, 2025 at 10:57 AM IST

White House

Trump Tests the Guardrails of US Credibility

Trump’s firings of the BLS chief and a Fed governor mark more than theatrics. By purging referees, he risks the credibility of America’s economy.

R. Gurumurthy

August 26, 2025 at 10:08 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Trump Fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook Amid Mortgage Controversy

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 26, 2025 at 1:24 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Tariffs, Stimulus and Stalled Earnings Weigh on India’s Markets

India’s markets face a rough ride as tariff wars collide with weak demand, policy trade-offs and fragile corporate performance.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 25, 2025 at 3:31 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

Powell’s Precarious Balance

Powell’s Jackson Hole signal of a rate cut showed a Fed caught between rising unemployment risks and Trump’s tariff-fuelled inflation pressures.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 22, 2025 at 4:41 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

US, EU Framework Agreement on Trade and Lessons for India

New Delhi should push for similar carve-outs and flexibilities in CBAM and sustainability rules, especially to shield Indian SMEs and exporters from disproportionate costs.

Ajay Srivastava

August 22, 2025 at 4:55 AM IST

White House

A Stock-Market Crash Foretold

Why are US stocks soaring even as debt balloons, tariffs bite, and foreign investors lose faith in America’s fiscal credibility? Is Wall Street in denial, or bracing for the next big crash?

Desmond Lachman

August 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

Damien VERRIER/iStock.com

Fed Enters RBI Debate as Singh Flags Global Linkages

BasisPoint Insight

August 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Fed Minutes Signal Patience, Markets Await Powell at Jackson Hole

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 21, 2025 at 1:40 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Trump Should not TACO with India

Donald Trump’s tariff gambit may sting, but it has jolted India into delivering long-delayed reforms, underscoring resilience born of coercion.

Sangeeta Godbole

August 20, 2025 at 6:09 AM IST

Istock.com

Growth Without Jobs, Wealth Without Equity: India Needs a Bold Course Correction

India’s economy is expanding, yet jobs are scarce and inequality deepens. Without a bold reset, growth risks leaving too many behind.

Arvind Mayaram

August 20, 2025 at 4:26 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Fresh US Tariffs and Geopolitics Keep Investors on Edge

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 20, 2025 at 1:41 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

The Morning Edge

Trump Assures Zelenskyy of US Support for Ukraine Security

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 19, 2025 at 1:57 AM IST

White House

Questions for the Fed

The Fed’s inflation mistakes, overconfidence in financial regulation, and other errors partly reflect the “groupthink” to which all organizations are prone.

Glenn Hubbard

August 18, 2025 at 4:59 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

Adam Smith at 250

Nearly 250 years after Smith introduced the concept of specialisation, it remains a key feature of our economies. But it has also changed profoundly.

Michael Spence

August 18, 2025 at 4:54 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

Trade Tangles Didn’t Take a Weekend Off

As India enjoyed a long weekend, Washington kept tightening the tariff screws, from steel to e-commerce, leaving partners scrambling for answers.

Vijay Chauhan

August 18, 2025 at 7:28 AM IST

Kremlin

The Many Winners of the Alaska Summit

At the Alaska Summit, Trump backed away from harsher Russia sanctions, aligning with Putin on lasting peace over ceasefire. This can shield India from bigger trade blows.

TK Arun

August 18, 2025 at 4:50 AM IST

Kremlin

The Morning Edge

Europe Backs Zelenskyy as Trump Weighs Ukraine Peace Pact

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 18, 2025 at 1:31 AM IST

White House

Seven Possible Endgames for India in the US Tariff Standoff

India faces seven possible endgames in its tariff standoff with Washington. The right mix of negotiation and fortification could decide the long game.

Ajay Srivastava

August 15, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

iStock.com

India Paid a Growth Price to Win a Ratings Prize

India’s fiscal discipline won a ratings upgrade and lowered capital costs. Now it must use that space to shield growth from global headwinds.

Kalyan Ram

August 14, 2025 at 3:20 PM IST

Finance Ministry

The Morning Edge

US Budget Deficit Rises Nearly 20% Despite Tariff Revenue Boost

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 13, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

Powell, Under Construction

Trump’s latest shot at Powell swaps rate charts for blueprints, but the aim is the same: bend the Fed to his campaign tune.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM IST

White House

America's National Security for Sale

The message to US adversaries is clear: America’s national security has been subordinated to the Trump administration’s narrow financial or partisan interests. The sale has begun. Come bearing money, political favors, or both.

Aziz Huq

August 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

US-China Extend Tariff Truce, Trump-Putin to Meet Friday

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 12, 2025 at 1:28 AM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

Resist Tariff Pressure, But Do Reassess India’s Farm Competitiveness

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are a shock test for Indian agriculture. India must defend its farm tariffs while using this moment to overhaul competitiveness and market access strategy.

K L Prasad

August 11, 2025 at 2:41 PM IST

The Morning Edge

Markets Watch Putin-Trump Meeting; Fed Shifts Toward Rate Cuts

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 11, 2025 at 1:31 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Indo-US Relations and the Tariff War: Strategic Drift or Calculated Brinkmanship?

As global alignments shift and economic coercion replaces diplomacy, India faces a turbulent phase in its ties with the US

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

August 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM IST

White House

Will Cheap Russian Oil Cost India Dearly in Western Markets?

As the US threatens tariffs over Russian oil imports, India weighs economic interests, strategic autonomy, and its place in a shifting global order.

Aurko Mahapatra

August 9, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Hopes of Putin–Trump Talks Lift Risk Mood, But Caution Persists

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 8, 2025 at 1:45 AM IST

Kremlin

Rare Earths Are China's Trump Card

Rare-earths chokepoints are not fixed; they evolve with technology. China understood this, waiting patiently as Western dependence on rare-earths magnets increased exponentially.

Angela Huyue Zhang

August 7, 2025 at 5:21 PM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

India’s 1991 Moment, Phase Two: Trade Turbulence a Wake-Up Call

Trump’s tariff shock is no 1991 crisis, but it could be the trigger for deeper reforms in labour, land, and governance that India can no longer defer.

Kalyan Ram

August 7, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Istock.com

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Slaps India with 50% Tariff, Targets Foreign Chipmakers

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 7, 2025 at 1:57 AM IST

White House

Dr Reddy's is Betting the Farm on Russia and Obesity Drugs

Dr Reddy's bets big on Russia and semaglutide, risking all on flawless execution as sanctions loom and lenalidomide revenues decline.

Dev Chandrasekhar

August 6, 2025 at 4:25 PM IST

iStock.com/stefanamer

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Narrows Fed Chair Search, Eyes Kugler Replacement This Week

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 6, 2025 at 1:39 AM IST

White House

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Tariff Threat Weighs on Rupee, Foreign Exchange Reserves

Trump’s tariffs threaten India’s trade balance and put fresh pressure on the rupee, testing the Reserve Bank’s reserves and policy agility.

Babuji K

August 5, 2025 at 7:17 AM IST

Trump Tariffs Have Entered the Test Arena. Here’s a Comeback Plan

India’s exports to the US may drop nearly 30% as steep tariffs bite across textiles, shrimp, jewellery and metals. Here’s a five-point action plan to mitigate the impact.

Ajay Srivastava

August 5, 2025 at 5:19 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Fed’s Daly signals rate cuts may be near; Trump targets India again over Russia oil trade

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 5, 2025 at 2:02 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Asian Stocks Slide as Soft Jobs Data, Trump Tariffs and OPEC+ Weigh on Mood

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 4, 2025 at 1:40 AM IST

istocks/imaginima

Govt Should Not Take Opposition’s Bait on Trump Tariffs, or Vocabulary

Trump’s tariffs and his choice of words may trigger loud politics, but the Indian government would be wiser to stay calm. Escalating tensions with Washington would not help at a time of fragile geopolitics.

Saibal Dasgupta

August 1, 2025 at 2:35 PM IST

Gage Skidmore/WikiCommons

Exorbitant Privilege: Why the Dollar Still Reigns Despite Headwinds

The US dollar faces political and policy headwinds, but no true rival threatens its dominance. At least, not yet.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 1, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Goods Tariffs are Manageable, But Services are India’s Real Risk

Trump’s goods tariffs will sting, but India’s real vulnerability lies in services – the sector that powers jobs, consumption and growth.

Chokkalingam G

August 1, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

The Morning Edge

Trump Turns up Heat on Trade Partners; PCE Data Signals Sticky US Inflation

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 1, 2025 at 2:03 AM IST

White House

Trump’s Stridency Pushes India Into Tougher Trade Terrain

India’s optimism for a soft landing on US tariffs may prove misplaced as oil, defence and BRICS politics deepen fault lines in talks with Washington.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 31, 2025 at 5:12 PM IST

White House

Why India Won’t Blink in the Face of US Trade Pressure

India’s restrained but resolute response to the US’s trade threats highlights its domestic resilience and its growing role in global value chains.

Sangeeta Godbole

July 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

iStock.com

India Must Turn Trump’s Tariff Blow into a Push for Manufacturing Reform

Trump’s new tariffs sting India’s exports, but the bigger fix lies at home in boosting manufacturing competitiveness and easing structural bottlenecks.

Nilanjan Banik

July 31, 2025 at 8:16 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump, Tariffs and the Timeless Tango of Greed

Trump’s tariffs reprise a centuries-old American habit — protectionism dressed as patriotism, ego wrapped as policy, and greed passing for strategy.

R. Gurumurthy

July 31, 2025 at 4:04 AM IST

White House

FOMC Holds Rates Steady in Historic Split Amid Pressure from Trump

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2025 at 2:11 AM IST

Federal Reserve

How Trump’s Tariff Tantrums Unfolded in 2025

Trump’s diplomacy by sledgehammer has a pattern: threaten, retreat, charm and repeat. His blunt message announcing tariffs on India followed the same imprint.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM IST

White House

India Holds Its Ground as Others Bow to US Tariff Demands

The UK, EU, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam secured tariff relief only after making sweeping concessions — zero tariffs on US farm goods, multi-billion-dollar investment pledges and large-scale purchases of oil, gas and arms.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 3:33 PM IST

White House

‘Friend’ No More? Trump Hits India With Tariffs Over Russia, Trade Barriers

The US President said India would pay 25% tariff, plus a penalty, mainly for buying Russian oil and military equipment. He did not detail the scope of the extra levy.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 12:46 PM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

How Central Banks Jeopardised Their Independence

By expanding their own understanding of their mandate, monetary authorities became caught up in fiscal policy and triggered inflation, precisely what central-bank independence is intended to avert.

Otmar Issing

July 29, 2025 at 4:12 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

Powell Weighs Politics and Data as Trump Heat Clouds Fed’s Path

Political fire and mixed data frame this week’s Fed decision; Powell must hold the centre while keeping September easing firmly in play.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 29, 2025 at 11:02 AM IST

White House

Critical Minerals for Steel Tariffs, India Should Play its Cards Well

India can leverage its critical mineral reserves to ease US steel tariffs and secure better trade terms in ongoing bilateral negotiations

G. Chandrashekhar

July 28, 2025 at 1:01 PM IST

iStock.com

With US–EU Deal Done, Spotlight Shifts to New Delhi

Recent trade deals of the US share a clear structure: Washington imposes new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 20% above MFN rates, while securing near-complete tariff elimination from its partners.

Ajay Srivastava

July 28, 2025 at 10:32 AM IST

c.europa.eu/

The Morning Edge

US-EU Trade Deal Sparks Risk-On Mood; Eyes Now on Central Banks

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 28, 2025 at 1:56 AM IST

The White House

Has Trump Killed Green Finance?

There are unmistakable signs that the US is putting pressure on international regulatory bodies to downgrade their climate-related work.

Howard Davies

July 25, 2025 at 9:19 AM IST

iStock.com/ipopba

The Morning Edge

Trump Hits Out at Fed’s Renovation Spend; Trade Talks Lift Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 25, 2025 at 2:09 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Through the Glass Darkly: Listing The Known Unknowns

As global risks mount, from volatility in the Russian oil supply to uncertainty over the future of the Fed chair, are we adequately prepared for the coming economic shocks?

Abheek Barua

July 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Trump Will Tom-Tom if Deal Happens, But India Must Stay on Tiptoe

Trump’s drama-driven diplomacy looms over US-India trade talks. Can New Delhi stay steady amid showy proclamations and shifting deals? Strategic patience may be India’s best defence.

Srinath Sridharan

July 23, 2025 at 6:32 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

Trump Hails $550 Billion Japan Deal, Slams Fed Powell as “Numbskull”

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 23, 2025 at 1:46 AM IST

iStock.com/studiocasper

The Morning Edge

Trump Ups Tariff Heat on EU as Fed Signals Split on Rate Path

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 21, 2025 at 1:30 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Why Markets May Soon Call America's Tariff Bluff

The latest escalations have barely moved the markets, with equity prices remaining elevated. The most plausible explanation is that investors no longer believe the administration will follow through on its threats.

Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg

July 19, 2025 at 11:57 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

India Must Not Be the Next Casualty of Trump’s Phone-Based Deals

To avoid misrepresentation, as was the case with the US deals with Jakarta and Hanoi, India must insist on a jointly issued, written statement before acknowledging any agreement.

Ajay Srivastava

July 19, 2025 at 11:46 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

Powell Defends Fed HQ Costs as US Data Shows Retail, Jobs Rebound

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 18, 2025 at 1:20 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

After Indonesia and Vietnam, Is India Next in Line for a Bad Deal?

BasisPoint Insight

July 17, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

India Should Continue Buying Russian Oil

The message from India should be clear: it’s willing to work with the US where interests align, but won’t alter strategic decisions out of fear of tariffs.

Ajay Srivastava

July 17, 2025 at 6:12 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Trump Imposes 19% Tariff on Indonesia; EU Warns of Retaliation

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 16, 2025 at 1:22 AM IST

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

The Morning Edge

EU Warns of Retaliation as Trump Presses Fed, Tariff Tensions Rise

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 15, 2025 at 1:10 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

The Morning Edge

Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Mexico, EU as Fed Cautions Over Economic “Noise”

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 14, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

Trade Talks

Why Allowing Some US Agriculture Products May Be Not A Bad Idea

As US–India trade talks heat up, agriculture and GM crop access are on the table. Can India protect jobs and farmers while opening up to US demands? A high-stakes balancing act begins.

G. Chandrashekhar

July 11, 2025 at 2:58 PM IST

iStocks/Tofan Singh

How To Negotiate With Trump

As game theory indicates, patience is crucial for finding cooperative solutions to seemingly intractable conflicts, especially when the uncooperative party is showing impatience.

Koichi Hamada

July 11, 2025 at 1:56 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

The Morning Edge

Trump Targets Canada with 35% Tariff; Bitcoin Surges to Record Highs

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 11, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on Copper, Targets Brazil

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 10, 2025 at 1:25 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Escalates Trade War with 50% Copper Tariff, Eyes Semiconductors and Pharma Next

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 9, 2025 at 1:23 AM IST

Big Deficits, Bigger Delusions: Tax Cuts, Tanks, And The Vanishing Monetary Theory Mirage

As the West runs record deficits without a guiding theory, fiscal rules are becoming optional. Is this the era of spending without meaning?

R. Gurumurthy

July 8, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Trump Warns Of Tariff Hike On Global Trade Partners From August 1

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 8, 2025 at 1:18 AM IST

The End Of America’s Exorbitant Privilege

If Donald Trump refuses to heed investors’ warnings, as seems likely, the US should brace for a dollar and bond-market crisis in the run-up to next year’s midterm elections.

Desmond Lachman

July 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM IST

baona/iStock.com

Trump Has Wrecked The US Economy

By cracking down on dissent and deploying the US military domestically, Trump is following the autocrat’s playbook. He must be stopped before the damage becomes irreversible.

Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca

July 4, 2025 at 4:24 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

The Morning Edge

Trump Eases Vietnam Tariffs as Modi Seeks Trade Expansion with Mercosur Bloc

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 3, 2025 at 1:14 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

The Morning Edge

Trump’s Sweeping Tax Bill Clears Senate by Razor-Thin Margin

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 2, 2025 at 1:17 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Turns Up Heat on Fed and Japan as Economic Crosswinds Stir Fresh Uncertainty

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 1, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

Trade Deal

Talks Enter Final Stretch, But India, US Hold Cards Close To The Chest

The July 8 deadline is significant. It marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day suspension of the “Liberation Day” country-specific tariffs, originally announced on April 2.

Ajay Srivastava

June 27, 2025 at 11:25 AM IST

White House

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

Israel-Iran Conflict

An Iranian Bomb Just Became More Likely

Despite pursuing new nuclear negotiations with Iran, the US has joined Israel in abandoning strategic patience in favour of spasmodic force.

Brahma Chellaney

June 25, 2025 at 6:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Offscript Weekly: The World Holds Its Breath

Macbeth’s ‘foul and fair’ line echoed this week. Missiles flew, deals spun, and somewhere, a cricketer just bowled.

Ranjana Chauhan

June 24, 2025 at 6:32 AM IST

Saeed Qaq/Anadolu via Getty Images

Digest

The Morning Edge: Trump Announces Ceasefire Between Israel And Iran

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

June 24, 2025 at 1:42 AM IST

Trump Announces Ceasefire Between Israel And Iran, Markets Rally As Tensions Ease

Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire after 12-day conflict; global stocks rally, oil prices plunge as war fears ease and Strait of Hormuz risk subsides.

BasisPoint Insight

June 24, 2025 at 1:37 AM IST

iStock.com

Israel-Iran conflict

US Joins War In Middle East, Trump Warns Tehran Against Retaliation

US joins Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, as Trump warns of more strikes and Tehran retaliates with fresh missile attacks.

Arshad Hussain

June 22, 2025 at 7:09 AM IST

Should We Have Faith In Markets?

In a market economy, hard work pays off: productivity largely determines compensation. When effort is rewarded, people have agency and can practice the virtue of personal responsibility.

Michael R. Strain

June 20, 2025 at 10:45 AM IST

PIB

A Dangerous Threshold In The Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff

Targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities risks crossing a line the world has never dared breach and could redraw the rules of modern warfare forever.

Saibal Dasgupta

June 20, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

US Debt Holders Should Brace for Impact

Fiscal policy under Trump is unsustainable, as it was under Joe Biden, but even more so if the administration’s “big, beautiful” budget passes in anything like its current form.

Willem H. Buiter and Anne C. Sibert

June 18, 2025 at 7:03 AM IST

Promise The Moon, Then Blame The Stars

Cash-strapped states are hitting pause on promises. As expenses soar and income lags, India’s welfare politics faces a fiscal reckoning.

TK Arun

June 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM IST

AI Generated

The Mirage Of Geoeconomics

Thirty-five years after Edward N. Luttwak coined the term “geoeconomics” to describe when the “logic of conflict” meets the “grammar of commerce,” the concept is gaining new resonance.

Daniel Gros

June 12, 2025 at 10:49 AM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

Four Reasons Why US Treasury Yields Are Rising

America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory threatens the government’s ability to fund core entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, both of which could become insolvent within the next 10 years.

Dambisa Moyo

June 10, 2025 at 4:52 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

America Needs A Smarter Government, Not Just A Smaller One

If the Trump administration wants to revitalize America’s federal agencies, rather than simply dismantling them, it must launch a focused, strategic effort to make them work better.

Michele Zanini and Gary Hamel

June 9, 2025 at 5:18 AM IST

White House

Interview

Subbarao Flags RBI’s Excessive FX Intervention, Seeks Policy Clarity

RBI must walk the talk on rupee management, says the former RBI Governor, warning that persistent intervention distorts markets and weakens credibility in this third of the four-part interview series.

Kalyan Ram

June 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM IST

Offscript Weekly: Fire In The Skies, Bhangra on Wall Street

Skies burned, timelines popped with memes, Trump did Trump things, and Wall Street danced. Because reality has a flair for drama.

Ranjana Chauhan

June 3, 2025 at 5:01 AM IST

File photo

Trump’s Metal Cacophony: Indian Exporters May Face The Music

Trump doubles US steel, aluminium tariffs to 50%. Will India’s $4.56 bn metal exports take the hit or fight back? Retaliation looms as global trade tensions resurface.

Ajay Srivastava

June 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump Wants Big Tech To Own the Dollar

By banning CBDCs and green-lighting stablecoins, Trump’s team are not just rejecting public digital money; they are outsourcing dollar supremacy to the darkest forces within Big Tech.

Yanis Varoufakis

May 30, 2025 at 3:27 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Trump’s Tariff Wall Crumbles Under Legal And Global Pressure

A federal court ruling undercuts Trump's tariff gambit, exposing legal overreach and prompting aggressive pushback from global trade partners.

Nilanjan Banik

May 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM IST

Why India Shouldn’t Rush To Seal Trade Deal With US

With Trump tariffs ruled illegal, India must reassess its strategy for trade talks and avoid one-sided concessions shaped by unlawful US pressure.

Ajay Srivastava

May 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Where Is US Economic Policy Taking Us?

As the US and others push the limits on debt and deficits, the bond vigilantes have been roused from their slumber. In the process, traditional US equity-bond-currency correlations have been undermined.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

May 28, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

US Fiscal Irresponsibility Is Everyone's Problem

Unlike the stock market, where volatility can be attributed to investor jitters over bloated valuations, turmoil in the bond market is deadly serious.

Paola Subacchi

May 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

Offscript Weekly: Skies That Roar, Stories That Soothe

A week of wild weather, economic milestones, global rollercoasters, AI avatars in boardrooms – anchored by a quiet and bright Heart Lamp from Karnataka.

Ranjana Chauhan

May 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

Why Trump’s Panacea May Lie In Boosting China’s Fertility Rate

For Trump, the only real solution is to boost China’s fertility rate, and that demands rapid progress in raising Chinese household incomes – something no tariff can achieve.

Yi Fuxian

May 26, 2025 at 3:25 PM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

The Hidden Surplus: How India Fuels US Profits Beyond Trade

The US earns $80–85 billion a year from India via education, tech, finance, IP royalties, and arms—flows that stay hidden outside the narrow lens of goods trade data.

Ajay Srivastava

May 26, 2025 at 1:25 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Long(end) Live Bond Vigilantes

Long-end bond yields are surging globally as buyers go on strike—from Tokyo to DC, fiscal largesse and sticky inflation revive bond vigilantes.

Yield Scribe

May 23, 2025 at 6:44 AM IST

Mega & MAGA Governance 101: Lessons from America’s Democratic Monarch

Trumponomics is all in the family and is now teaching the world how to blur power, profit, and policy.

Srinath Sridharan

May 22, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

Apple, Trump, And The Real Cost Of Making Things

Trump’s push to bring Apple’s factories home challenges India’s China+1 dream. But productivity, not wages, may be the real battleground.

Abheek Barua

May 21, 2025 at 6:22 AM IST

iStock.com

IPR And Patents

Why India Must Be Tight-Fisted In Trade Talks With US

India’s IPR reforms and patent safeguards face US scrutiny in trade talks. New Delhi has to defend public good, with greater access and innovations.

Amit Singh

May 19, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

Of Ukraine’s Allies And Fair-Weather Friends

The West sees Putin's war as imperial; Moscow calls it NATO deterrence. But peace remains hostage to territory, aid and politics with global economies caught in the crossfire.

TK Arun

May 18, 2025 at 5:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Why Tim Cook Should Listen To Trump, Shift iPhone Assembly To US

India gains little from shallow iPhone assembly but could benefit from deeper reforms—chips, displays, batteries—and a correction in inflated US trade deficit figures.

Ajay Srivastava

May 16, 2025 at 5:50 AM IST

File Photo

The Turning Point: Why Trump Backed Down In Trade War With China

Trump’s tariff retreat reflects China’s strategic resilience, global rewiring of trade networks, and the flawed logic behind reciprocal tariff demands.

Nilanjan Banik

May 13, 2025 at 10:05 AM IST

Trump's "Most Favored Nation" Plan Exposes Indian Big Pharma's Concentration Risk

New executive order targeting drug prices reveals dangerous US dependency and accelerates the need for market diversification and higher-value products.

Dev Chandrasekhar

May 13, 2025 at 8:26 AM IST

Donald Trump’s Tariff Retreat Is All Optics, No Outcomes

The deal with the UK is symbolic, not strategic. Expect more such announcements as the US administration backpedals on its 10% tariff wall.

Manoj Rane

May 12, 2025 at 12:37 PM IST

Basis Life

If Only Tweets Can Bring Peace With Permanence

Donald Trump may rush to take credit for ceasefire theatrics, but the US’ decades-long complicity in funding and legitimising Pakistan’s terror machinery cannot be airbrushed with a tweet. .

Srinath Sridharan

May 12, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Trump’s Drug Order Is A Wake-Up Call For India’s Pharma Policy

Trump’s price cap move may trigger global pressure on India to dilute its patent regime. New FTAs show signs of troubling concessions.

Ajay Srivastava

May 12, 2025 at 7:16 AM IST

Trump Tariff On Foreign Films: The Reel Trouble Has Just Begun

Trump’s latest plot twist is 100% tariff on foreign films, because nothing says ‘Made in America’ like economic chaos in Dolby Surround.

Vijay Chauhan

May 7, 2025 at 1:59 AM IST

Uncertainty, Not Inventory, Is Hurting The American Economy

There is more than just excessive imports behind the American economy's contraction in January–March. And it may be a portent.

TK Arun

May 6, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

Prepare For The Global Euro

If a currency is to serve an international role, the country issuing it generally needs to enjoy economic preeminence and occupy a central position in global trade.

Hélène Rey

May 5, 2025 at 3:00 PM IST

iStock.com

Offscript Weekly: The World Feels Heavier

Grief turns into hate. A meme morphs into a flashpoint. Trump turns into the Pope. As the world teeters, Offscript Weekly unpacks heartbreak, hubris, and the quiet fight for sanity.

Ranjana Chauhan

May 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM IST

Vinayaraj/ Via WikiCommons

Trump And The Triumph Of The Technolords

Yanis Varoufakis

May 1, 2025 at 5:18 AM IST

Chaos Theory, Entropy And The Financial System

While chaos theory explains the unpredictable behaviour of the markets, entropy suggests that the markets will ultimately reach a new equilibrium at a higher level of disorder.

R. Gurumurthy

April 30, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

Seoane Prado/Via WikiCommons

Private Capex Is Faltering, And Global Fragmentation May Be To Blame

India’s first forward-looking capex survey shows a sharp fall in 2025-26 plans, exposing demand worries and rising global trade uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 30, 2025 at 5:26 AM IST

iStock.com/Technical Bhadresh

Offscript Weekly: Of ‘Insaniyat’, Pilgrims Progress & Some Data Magic

From trauma of tragedy and call of humanity to sacred treks, diplomatic headways, an alleged Houdini act on pollution to a new colour find – our wrap of headlines and some between the lines.

Ranjana Chauhan

April 28, 2025 at 3:19 PM IST

Jmhullot/Via WikiCommons

Europe and China Must Unite Against Trump’s Trade Assault

Despite its economic costs, Trump’s global tariff war offers Europe a chance to establish itself as a mediator and defender of multilateralism in an increasingly multipolar world.

Marcel Fratzscher

April 27, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

India, US Very Close To Trade Deal, Says US Treasury Secretary

BasisPoint Insight

April 25, 2025 at 4:19 AM IST

Hedging the New Uncertainty

In today’s world, investors cannot rely only on level-one hedges. They need to consider what level of protection they need for level-two and level-three scenarios.

Dambisa Moyo

April 24, 2025 at 5:44 PM IST

iStock.com

India’s Tariff Capital Is Its Best Bargaining Chip Yet

India's high tariffs, long seen as a liability, may now be its strongest card in reshaping trade deals amid Trump's tariff offensive.

Vivek Johri

April 24, 2025 at 8:36 AM IST

Time for EU Bonds to Shine

There is a compelling case for capitalising on current opportunity to issue many more common bonds, and to roll over existing EU debt as it matures.

Philippe Legrain

April 23, 2025 at 4:14 AM IST

iStock.com/filmfoto

Offscript Weekly: Of Worlds Colliding & Worlds Expanding

Farewell in Rome, fireworks at Harvard, music in space—Offscript Weekly dives into a world brimming with conflict, irony, and cosmic lift-off.

Ranjana Chauhan

April 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM IST

Reciprocal Tariff

Why Does India Need To Indulge Trump?

Facing Trump’s tariff threats, India treads cautiously between protecting economic interests and avoiding costly confrontation.

BasisPoint Insight

April 22, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Digest

The Morning Edge: Trump Demands Immediate Rate Cuts, Escalating Fed Feud as Markets Wobble

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

April 22, 2025 at 1:31 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Needs A Big Bang Reform Now

Trump’s tariff chaos has unsettled US bonds. India must seize this moment to reform its debt market and revive private infrastructure play.

TK Arun

April 19, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Can California Save Global Trade? The Ball Is In Courts’ Court

California challenges Trump in court, questioning the President’s power to impose tariffs without Congress—could this redefine executive authority?

Rajesh Mahapatra

April 17, 2025 at 10:55 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

The Real Cost Of Trump’s Tariff Theatrics

Behind Trump’s tariff drama lies a familiar pattern of politics over policy. Is it already destined to doom?

Manoj Rane

April 17, 2025 at 6:08 AM IST

Can a Global Trade War Be Avoided?

Trump’s tariff pause offers a chance to avert global trade war. If the EU acts wisely, the damage could be contained—mainly to the US itself.

Daniel Gros

April 15, 2025 at 4:32 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

Offscript Weekly: The Destruction Of Words – From Orwell To Trump

From Orwell’s Newspeak to Trump’s tweets, language has morphed - from a tool of clarity to a lever of control. When leaders weaponise words and flatten meaning, even honesty sounds radical. In a world where “ungood” suffices, what’s left of truth?

Ranjana Chauhan

April 14, 2025 at 1:30 PM IST

Volatility In US Markets Is Here To Stay

The spell of QE cast by the Fed is still being fuelled by leverage, foreign capital, and investor psychology.

Sandeep Kumar

April 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM IST

Damien VERRIER/iStock.com

Navigating the GST Landscape: Fixing Pain Points, Charting A Way Forward

Despite years of tweaks, India’s GST regime still stumbles on rate muddles, compliance woes and refund delays. A proper fix needs political will.

Najib Shah

Rajesh Mahapatra

April 14, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

Trump’s Tactical Retreat May Deepen the Tariff Trap

The US President’s 90-day tariff climb-down masks a sharper focus on China, but his multifront trade war risks pushing America deeper into a bind.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM IST

Don’t Fix Market Volatility; It’s A Feature, Not A Bug

Investors who obsess over the exact turning point miss the deeper truth: in uncertain times, success depends less on timing and more on temperament.

Krishnadevan V

April 14, 2025 at 3:45 AM IST

Indian E-Commerce May Get A Peek Of US Market, Fingers Crossed On Red Tape

Scrapping of de minimis exemption for China And Hong Kong Allows Indian Companies An Edge In shipping small items to the US

Ajay Srivastava

April 13, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

The Real ‘Black Mirror’ And A Dystopian New World Order

From RBI’s high-stakes gambits to tariff wars and AI chaos, India’s week mirrors Black Mirror’s new season—each episode a parable of modern fragility.

Phynix

April 13, 2025 at 4:21 AM IST

Opinion

Trump Tariffs Make Americans ‘Yippy’, And China Goes ‘Yippee’

The trade war helps China come out as the more stable, respectable and respectful superpower

TK Arun

April 11, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

India Should Sidestep Trump’s Tariff Games, Build Value Chains With China

Instead of an FTA, India could pitch a limited “Zero-for-Zero” deal with the US, mirroring Europe’s approach, covering 90% of industrial goods while shielding sensitive areas like autos.

Ajay Srivastava

April 10, 2025 at 6:19 AM IST

iStock.com/NiroDesign

Digest

The Morning Edge: Markets Roar Back as Trump Shifts Trade Strategy

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

April 10, 2025 at 1:27 AM IST

Navigating The Trump Storm

The largest impact is likely to be on the US owing to its growing isolation from the rest of the global economy.

Michael Spence

April 8, 2025 at 4:59 PM IST

Tariffs Are Just A Symptom, Not the Real Story

Ray Dalio argues that markets are missing the deeper breakdowns behind today’s noisy trade headlines.

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2025 at 1:04 PM IST

Americans Can't Win From Trump's Trade War

The White House’s explanation of how it set the new tariff rates was based on unfounded premises and wrong assumptions.

Nancy Qian

April 8, 2025 at 3:18 AM IST

Global Trade Tensions Jolt Indian Equities, Trigger Sharpest Decline In 10 Months

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

India Stares At $5.8 Billion Hit in 2025 From Trump Tariffs

GTRI's calculation is based on assessment of India’s existing export the US, the magnitude of tariff hikes, and the comparative tariffs faced by major competing countries.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 10:30 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

Trump, Tariffs, And The Fate Of The Dollar

Free trade seems to be off the menu for both Republicans and Democrats. The reason for this bipartisan embrace concerns the global role of the dollar in promoting structural trade imbalances.

Mark Blyth

April 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

What Drives Trump's Madness

One has to identify the specific bee in Trump’s bonnet that is driving his tariff offensive to fashion an effective policy response.

TK Arun

April 4, 2025 at 1:48 PM IST

Gage Skidmore

Trump’s Tariff Shock Revives Mercantilism, Endangers Global Trade

Trump’s tariff blitz may hit India harder than expected, choking trade, compressing earnings, and testing the limits of domestic policy.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 4, 2025 at 6:36 AM IST

Bilateralism Trumps Multilateralism As US Resets Trade Terms

Bilateral deals, particularly after an open invitation from US President Donald Trump, will create huge global uncertainty.

Sandeep Kumar

April 4, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

A Weak Dollar...Ich bin oder nicht bin?

As Trump unveils his tariff policy, the burden may be shifting from the US dollar to manufacturing. What are the threats and opportunities for countries like India?

R. Gurumurthy

April 3, 2025 at 5:54 PM IST

India Singled Out In Trump’s Escalating Tariff crusade

A fresh round of US tariffs singles out India with 27% duties, reigniting tensions and leaving negotiations adrift amid growing trade friction.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 3, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

The Morning Edge: Global Markets Reel as Trump Unleashes "Worst-Case Scenario" Trade War

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

April 3, 2025 at 1:21 AM IST

Advance Ruling

Quest For Certainty In An Uncertain Trade Scenario

In view of anticipated greater uncertainty due to reciprocal tariff or bilateral trade agreement, it is expected that trade may opt for greater recourse to advance rulings.

Vijay Chauhan

April 2, 2025 at 7:16 AM IST

India Keeps Fingers Crossed Ahead Of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

It's uncertain whether the tariffs would be implemented uniformly, applied separately to agricultural and industrial goods, or levied at a more granular level.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 1, 2025 at 10:53 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

Trump’s Latest Salvo May Be An Opportunity For Indian Automobile Sector

Trump’s latest tariffs may have limited impact on India’s automobile industry; New Delhi must look at it as an opportunity.

Ajay Srivastava

March 27, 2025 at 8:18 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

Goodbye, Mr Greenback?

For long, the status of the dollar has given the US the “exorbitant privilege” of being unconstrained by its external balances.

Abheek Barua

March 24, 2025 at 3:12 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

The Morning Edge: Trump, Putin Agree To Limited Ceasefire In Ukraine

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 19, 2025 at 1:58 AM IST

The Morning Edge: Financial Markets Brace For Geopolitical Shifts As Trump-Putin Talks Loom

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 18, 2025 at 1:49 AM IST

Trump, Bitcoin, And The Future Of The Dollar

US' decision to join the reserve-diversification party raises serious doubts about the future of its own currency’s hegemony.

Carla Norrlöf

March 12, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Explainer

Why Is The Indian Finance Minister Hinting At A GST Reduction Now?

India's GST rethink comes amid economic headwinds. Will a tax cut be enough to counter slowing demand and US tariffs? A deeper look.

Alok Kumar Mishra

March 11, 2025 at 6:13 AM IST

Trump’s NATO Taunt May Become Europe’s Economic Salvation

Europe is under immense pressure to increase its defence spending and weapons present themselves as a new economic opportunity.

TK Arun

March 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM IST

Nothing Should Be Off The Table, Not Even Withdrawing From US Trade Talks

US wants India to lower tariffs while protecting its own. New Delhi must push back with a fair, strategic trade deal—on its own terms.

Ajay Srivastava

March 8, 2025 at 4:51 AM IST

The Morning Edge: ECB Meet; Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Tariffs On Autos

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 6, 2025 at 2:08 AM IST

Musk And DOGE Are Doing It Wrong

Some of the most vocal advocates of cutting public spending – particularly major US tech firms – have benefited enormously from government support and favorable policies.

Diane Coyle

March 5, 2025 at 3:50 PM IST

Argentina.gob.ar

The Morning Edge: Trump Tariff, Canada-China retaliates

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 5, 2025 at 1:43 AM IST

Trump Lays Down The Law As Zelenskyy Misreads The New Rules Of The Game

Zelenskyy’s public spat with Trump exposed a brutal reality — Ukraine’s survival now hinges on accepting America’s supremacy and playing by its rules.

Aabhas Pandya

March 4, 2025 at 4:17 AM IST

The Morning Edge: Trump Tariffs, OPEC+ Output Hike

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 4, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

Trump’s Tit-For-Tat Tariff Plan Calls For Agility

US tariff threats challenge India’s trade policies, pushing for urgent bilateral talks and long-term export diversification strategies.

Vijay Singh Chauhan and Shweta Kushe*

March 3, 2025 at 12:14 PM IST

The Morning Edge: Trump Unveils "Gold Card" Visa Program

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

February 27, 2025 at 1:45 AM IST

How Trump’s Anti-Globalism Could Backfire

Trump's tariff-driven economic strategy clashes with America's reliance on foreign capital, risking a debt crisis if global investors pull back. Protectionism, market instability, and retaliatory policies could undermine Trump's promised economic revival.

Harold James

January 31, 2025 at 6:49 AM IST