RBI Must Not Outsource the Craft of Supervision

Outsourcing bank supervision to consultants risks turning judgment into checklists. RBI should modernise without losing its supervisory wisdom.

R. Gurumurthy

September 4, 2025 at 12:50 PM IST

iStock.com

Tata Sons IPO and the Case for RBI Easing Norms

The peculiarity in Tata Sons status as a core investment company has made the debate on whether it should list more complex than the rules suggest. Will RBI cling to formality or adapt to substance?

Mint Owl

September 3, 2025 at 4:35 PM IST

tata.com

State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

Book Review

God Laughs, Markets Listen, and the Reddyisms that Still Resonate

From wit and ambiguity to humility and integrity, YV Reddy’s new book shows why values matter more than plans in an uncertain world.

Kalyan Ram

August 31, 2025 at 4:45 AM IST

Why Credit Growth Remains Tepid in India

Healthy balance sheets can’t offset muted demand as higher real rates and global headwinds weigh on investment appetite.

Rudra Sensarma

August 30, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

File Photo

Indian Banks’ Capital Comfort to Face Twin Challenges

Can Indian banks sustain their capital strength once Basel’s Pillar-II and IND-AS 109 start demanding more?*

Rahul Ghosh

August 29, 2025 at 2:53 PM IST

Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

India’s GDP grew 7.8% in April–June, the fastest in five quarters and above forecasts of 6.7–6.9%. Growth was led by services and investment, while mining and utilities remained weak.

BasisPoint Insight

August 29, 2025 at 12:07 PM IST

iStock.com

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

MPC Framework

If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix it

The framework may warrant limited refinement—specifically, the inclusion of a clearly defined escape clause for exceptional circumstances.

Vivek Kumar

August 26, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Framework

There Should Always be Food on RBI’s Inflation Plate

As India debates whether food prices should be excluded from inflation targets, the RBI will find itself balancing political pressure with institutional credibility. The RBI must remember that inflation is not a percentage point; it is the price of a plate of food.

Srinath Sridharan

August 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Central Banking

The Monetary Power of Words in Central Bank Communication

Words have become one of the most powerful instruments in monetary policy, sometimes stronger than rate moves or liquidity operations.

Babuji K

August 25, 2025 at 9:23 AM IST

Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Free UPI is a Bill the State Must Own

India’s UPI success masks a funding gap. Unless the government or RBI pays up, banks and fintechs will keep bleeding to keep it “free”.

Mint Owl

August 21, 2025 at 1:39 PM IST

Fed Enters RBI Debate as Singh Flags Global Linkages

BasisPoint Insight

August 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Lilavati Case Puts HDFC Bank Chief in Unwanted Spotlight

A courtroom battle over Mumbai’s Lilavati Trust has put HDFC Bank chief Sashidhar Jagdishan’s reputation on trial far beyond the balance sheet.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 19, 2025 at 8:04 AM IST

WikiCommons

GST Reset Faces Revenue and State Test

The Centre’s bold push for a two-slab GST by Diwali promises relief for households and MSMEs, but consensus with states and revenue arithmetic will be the real test.

Najib Shah

August 17, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

iStock.com

Inflation’s All Zen Unless You Buy Coconuts, Oils or Little Gold on the Side

Record-low inflation sounds dreamy, unless your shopping list includes coconuts, cooking oil, or a bit of gold for the bank locker.

BasisPoint Insight

August 15, 2025 at 8:04 AM IST

iStock.com

S&P Upgrade Should Open a Window for Structural Reforms

India’s S&P upgrade to BBB boosts confidence. The real gain will come if it’s used to spur investment, jobs, and trade resilience.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM IST

iStock.com

Govt’s Fiscal Discipline Pays Off as S&P Upgrades India’s Rating

Rating agency says Trump’s tariffs pose limited risk given India’s consumption-driven growth; reduced Russian crude imports unlikely to impact fiscal health.

BasisPoint Insight

August 14, 2025 at 10:09 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

India’s Banks Need a New Business Model Before Liquidity Risks Bite Harder

Deposit growth is slowing, liquidity risks are rising, and RBI rules are shifting. India’s banks must rewire their business models before the next shock.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 14, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

iStock.com/lakshmiprasad S

All That Glitters: Gold Reserves Surge in Challenge to Dollar’s “Exorbitant Privilege”

Central banks are hoarding gold at record pace, hedging against dollar risk and geopolitical shocks. The yellow metal may not dethrone* the greenback yet, but it is back in the game.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 14, 2025 at 3:27 AM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

From Jalanga to Gozaria — RBI’s Long Walk to the People

From persuading the unbanked to guarding against digital mules, RBI’s field visits show how inclusion goals adapt to changing times.

BasisPoint Insight

August 13, 2025 at 10:04 AM IST

RBI

Private Banks Lead Hiring as State Lenders Lose Ground in Workforce

India’s banking workforce is growing fast, with private and small finance banks driving change. But the gains are uneven across regions, roles, and gender.

Akshi Chawla

August 13, 2025 at 6:25 AM IST

File Photo

RBI Communication Misstep Drives 10-Year Yield Spread Over Repo to 100 bps

The stance pivot drove up long yields, impairing transmission, sapping demand, and raising borrowing costs just as risks build.

Richard Fargose

August 13, 2025 at 2:02 AM IST

ICICI’s Minimum Balance Hike Signals Banking’s Cost Reality Check

Indian banking must shed the pretence to free service and confront the structural trade-offs between inclusion and profitability.

Srinath Sridharan

August 12, 2025 at 3:44 PM IST

iStock/Mrinal Pal

When the RBI Governor’s Words Move More Than Just Markets

Two recent flare-ups show why Sanjay Malhotra must blend facts with empathy because, for an RBI governor, every word can be policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

India’s Costliest Bond Faces Clock as Tata Talks Advance

Shapoorji Pallonji Group’s talks to sell its Tata Sons stake could erase India’s costliest bond burden, but valuation and time pressure make it a cliffhanger.

Krishnadevan V

August 11, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

Konkan Railway/WikiCommons

When a Rate Cut Feels Like a Hike and the Yield Curve Loses its Public Good Role

A 50-bps June cut has turned into a de facto hike as yields climb, eroding monetary transmission and adding to India’s fiscal costs.

Yield Scribe

August 11, 2025 at 2:11 AM IST

iStock.com

The RBI’s Curious Attachment to a Benchmark That Hardly Trades

The RBI’s liquidity panel sticks with WACR as its policy anchor, even though the market it reflects is shrinking fast. Reform? Or regulatory nostalgia?

R. Gurumurthy

August 8, 2025 at 6:43 AM IST

RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty

RBI holds repo with a neutral stance, but October policy could pivot if growth slows or tariffs bite.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 7, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Tariff Threat Weighs on Rupee, Foreign Exchange Reserves

Trump’s tariffs threaten India’s trade balance and put fresh pressure on the rupee, testing the Reserve Bank’s reserves and policy agility.

Babuji K

August 5, 2025 at 7:17 AM IST

RBI Expected to Pause, but Weak Data Opens Door to Further Cuts

The MPC is expected to hold rates steady, but easing bias remains amid low inflation, moderating growth, and risks from US tariffs.

BasisPoint Insight

August 4, 2025 at 12:13 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

RBI Should Rethink Its FX Swap Playbook Amid Trump Tariff Threats

Ample liquidity tempts RBI to deliver on its $5 billion swap, but rising external risks call for preserving reserves and slowing forward unwinding.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 31, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Household Inflation Expectations Call for Smarter Surveys, Sharper Strategy

BasisPoint Insight

July 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

RBI Steps in With ₹500 Billion VRR as Call Rate Hits Corridor Ceiling

BasisPoint Insight

July 23, 2025 at 8:01 AM IST

Stablecoins and Sovereignty: Why India Must Watch, Not Rush

India must resist FOMO on stablecoins. The US is playing digital geopolitics—India should respond with timing, not haste, to protect sovereignty.

R. Gurumurthy

July 22, 2025 at 9:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Storm in a Tea Cup, Signal in the Steam

RBI lets call rate rise to repo, not to shock but to signal. The WACR is still the anchor, and markets now have no excuse to think otherwise.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 22, 2025 at 3:16 AM IST

RBI Tweets

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

CRR Deserves More Respect Than Being Reduced to the “New Normal”

By normalising a lower CRR, the RBI risks trivialising a potent policy tool. Clarity, discipline and market signals could all be at stake.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Call Rate May Stay as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Anchor

Despite shrinking volumes, RBI likely to stick with the call rate as its policy anchor. Governor Malhotra signals no shift to TREPS yet, keeping repo-linked transmission key.

BasisPoint Insight

July 16, 2025 at 9:48 AM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

Hidden Stress Points In Banks – Insights From Financial Stability Report

FSR flags hidden banking risks: slowing credit, NIM squeeze, unsecured loans, MSME stress, and shifting household debt patterns.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

July 14, 2025 at 3:58 AM IST

RBI

How To Avoid Credit Bubble

Banks face rising pressure to balance credit expansion with market risks amid slowing deposit growth. Innovative deposit strategies and digital solutions are key to ensuring sustainable financial stability.

K. Srinivasa Rao

July 12, 2025 at 2:43 AM IST

Fiscal Puritanism Is India’s Bet On Sovereign Strength

India’s quiet fiscal restraint is more than prudence. It is a strategic choice to secure cheaper capital, improve ratings, and achieve long-term growth.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM IST

RBI

Why RBI’s Call Money Benchmark Is Losing Relevance

RBI’s reliance on WACR as its policy anchor is misaligned with market realities. A shift to secured benchmarks like SORR is overdue.

Richard Fargose

July 10, 2025 at 8:49 AM IST

Politics Before Prudence: The Art Of Freezing Small Savings Rates

Small savings rates stay frozen for voters' comfort, leaving the RBI to wonder how rate cuts are meant to work.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 8, 2025 at 10:40 AM IST

iStock.com

Rethinking India’s Uneven Credit-Deposit Divide

India’s banking system mobilises deposits nationally but fails to deliver credit evenly. A rethink of regional credit policy is long overdue.

Rajesh Kumar*

July 4, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

India Faces Stronger External Headwinds As Global Risks Intensify

As the world economy cools and risks multiply, India’s growth story depends on reviving investment, supporting credit, and building resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Guardianship Or Overreach? In Defence Of The RBI’s Right To Watch The Experts

The RBI’s move to intensify oversight is a necessary act of institutional responsibility in a governance landscape marked by silence, capture, and structural asymmetry.

Srinath Sridharan

July 1, 2025 at 9:10 AM IST

Write-Offs Drive NPA Decline As Bad Loan Recovery Stays Weak, Shows RBI Report

BasisPoint Insight

June 30, 2025 at 2:35 PM IST

RBI And Government Reports Choose Cheerleading Over Clarity

Official assessments paint a Goldilocks picture while downplaying real risks of uneven demand, fragile investment and rural stress.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 30, 2025 at 4:57 AM IST

iStock.com

Early Monsoon Tempers Output, But Macro Signals Turn Upbeat

The early onset of the monsoon has brightened agricultural prospects and improved the inflation outlook, even as it appears to have weighed on industrial growth. Other sectors have shown resilience, and early indicators from June point to a recovery.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 27, 2025 at 3:01 PM IST

istocks/ABHISHEK KUMAR SAH

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

RBI’s Financial Conditions Index Deserves Market Attention

The central bank’s new daily FCI gives a sharper read of monetary conditions and may soon shape policy, signalling more than repo rates alone.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 2:07 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Small Firms, Big Strain: RBI Study Shows Policy Transmission Is Uneven

A new RBI article confirms that monetary policy hits smaller firms harder. Balance sheets matter more than bond yields in driving investment.

BasisPoint Insight

June 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

RBI Opens The Drain To Re-anchor Short-Term Rates

The return of variable-rate reverse repos signals the RBI’s shift from passive liquidity tolerance to active rate discipline.

BasisPoint Insight

June 24, 2025 at 2:48 PM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Banks Are No Longer The Backbone Of Infrastructure Credit

The RBI’s new project finance guidelines are not about inviting banks back into the sector. They quietly endorse a specialised model already taking shape.

Sujit Kumar

June 24, 2025 at 8:20 AM IST

Istock.com/Emmanuel Nalli

RBI Extends Tenure Of Bandhan Bank Additional Director Till June 2026

BasisPoint Insight

June 23, 2025 at 10:42 AM IST

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Why The Current Demand Recovery Rings Hollow

Rural wage gains and urban spending suggest recovery, but weak incomes, falling agri prices, and policy drag limit real momentum.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 18, 2025 at 6:24 AM IST

iStock.com/Debjit Chakraborty

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

One Step Ahead? How India’s Supervisory Model Measures Up

India’s supervisory reforms offer a contrast to global delays, but resilience also depends on acknowledging what supervision cannot prevent.

Rabi N. Mishra

June 14, 2025 at 6:20 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Lower Fuel Prices Matter More Than Rate Cuts In Boosting Vehicle Sales

BasisPoint Insight

June 13, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

"Did He Just Say That?" — A Critical Look At Central Bank Communication

Communication is not PR, it is policy. When central banks speak credibly, they can move economies without moving interest rates.

R. Gurumurthy

June 12, 2025 at 6:20 AM IST

iStock.com

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

A Vote Apart, Why Monetary Policy Needs Dissent

Dissent in the RBI’s rate-setting committee is not defiance. It is foresight. As policy turns bold, a lone voice may be asking the right questions.

Sujit Kumar and Rajendra Paramanik*

June 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

iStock.com

Surplus Transfer: Windfall For Government, Balancing Act For RBI

By transferring a record surplus to the central government and a larger chunk to the risk buffers, the RBI has balanced between supporting fiscal needs and preserving policy credibility.

R. Gurumurthy

June 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Musings

Hyderabad Blues: Central Banking Memories And Quiet Returns

A hometown visit turns into a quiet reckoning with central banking’s past, as two former RBI Governors open their doors and their minds.

Kalyan Ram

June 8, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

Made from WikiCommons

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

RBI Pushes For Better Rate Transmission, But Structural Frictions Persist

RBI steps up easing with rate and CRR cuts, but uneven liquidity, sticky bank rates, and cautious lending slow real transmission to the economy.

Richard Fargose

June 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Monetary Intent And Content Matter, Not Just The Mic

Authority and influence in central banking are earned through judgement, not decibels.

Srinath Sridharan

June 6, 2025 at 12:47 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Interview

India’s Fiscal Fault Lines Risk Derailing Viksit Bharat Vision: Subbarao

The former RBI Governor warns that weak state finances, freebies, and Centre–state rifts could upend India’s journey to becoming a truly developed economy.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

Interview

Dollar Needs A Hedge As Global Reset Underway, Says ICICI Bank's Prasanna

The dollar is no longer sacrosanct, says B. Prasanna, who also sees 50 bps rate cuts, stable rupee, and mid-cap opportunities ahead.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2025 at 8:26 AM IST

Interview

Subbarao Flags RBI’s Excessive FX Intervention, Seeks Policy Clarity

RBI must walk the talk on rupee management, says the former RBI Governor, warning that persistent intervention distorts markets and weakens credibility in this third of the four-part interview series.

Kalyan Ram

June 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM IST

Preserve The Fiscal Union, Make States More Fiscally Competitive

India must reform fiscal equity within the Constitution — not fracture its sovereignty by devolving income tax to the states.

Srinath Sridharan

June 4, 2025 at 8:36 AM IST

Interview

MPC Needs Exchange Rate Lens In 2026 Overhaul, Says Ex-RBI Chief

Subbarao says ignoring the rupee in policy calculus is risky, and calls for a wider MPC mandate in the review of the framework in Part 2 of a four-part interview.

Kalyan Ram

June 4, 2025 at 3:23 AM IST

Monetary Policy Or Market Theatre? When Headlines Front-Run The RBI

Overconfident headlines and speculative forecasts risk distorting monetary policy deliberations and undermining institutional credibility.

Srinath Sridharan

June 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM IST

IStock.com

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

India’s GDP Numbers Look Good—Too Good To Trust

The January–March data is stronger than expected, but deeper fault lines remain in consumption, private investment, and household incomes.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

India’s Growth Pops, But RBI Still Has Reasons To Cut Rates

A 7.4% GDP print in January–March 2025 flatters India’s outlook. With consumption weak and real rates high, RBI can still ease to lift growth.

Yield Scribe

June 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM IST

Interview

Rangarajan Says India Must Not Dilute 3% Fiscal Deficit Cap

Rangarajan warns against replacing India’s 3% deficit anchor, saying it risks crowding out private investment and raising interest rates.

Kalyan Ram

May 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM IST

Valuation Gains Power RBI’s Record Surplus As FX Margins Contract

Valuation gains, not forex profits, drove RBI’s record ₹2.69 trillion surplus, even as trading margins narrowed and provisioning demands rose.

Richard Fargose

May 30, 2025 at 12:01 PM IST

The Case For A Governance Reset At IndusInd Bank

SEBI called out IndusInd’s failures. Insider trades, delayed disclosure, and board apathy demand RBI intervention to protect market integrity.

Krishnadevan V

May 29, 2025 at 10:49 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Growth Anchored In Reform, Stability Amid Global Shocks: RBI Report

BasisPoint Insight

May 29, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

A Profit-Making Central Bank Is A Reflection Of Poor Fisc

Central bank profits can reveal more about government overspending than monetary success.

Alpana Killawala

May 28, 2025 at 1:02 PM IST

iStock.com

Buffer Reboot

Higher RBI Dividend Payout Now Comes With Stricter Framework

RBI’s recalibration of its risk buffer signals a shift from rigid rules to responsive resilience—putting prudence ahead of payouts in a world of rising uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 25, 2025 at 4:11 AM IST

High Buffer Shaves ₹750 Billion Off RBI Surplus, Narrows Fiscal Wiggle Room

The RBI’s higher risk buffer trims the surplus transfer, limiting fiscal headroom, but signalling a longer-term priority on financial resilience.

Richard Fargose

May 23, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

RBI Board Approves ₹2.69 Trillion Surplus Transfer To Govt, Raises CRB to 7.5%

A key factor behind the surge in surplus is likely the central bank’s trading income from its aggressive intervention in the forex market.

BasisPoint Insight

May 23, 2025 at 11:58 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Opinion

Corporate Houses As Bankers? Not So Fast

India needs more banks, but not at the cost of its financial integrity. Allowing corporate houses into banking risks turning institutions of public trust into instruments of private influence.

Srinath Sridharan

May 23, 2025 at 8:05 AM IST

RBI

RBI Turns Net Buyer In FX Market in March After Five Months Of Selling Streak

BasisPoint Insight

May 22, 2025 at 11:17 AM IST

Record RBI Dividend Payouts Are A Short-Term Fix With Long-Term Risks

Another likely record dividend to the Centre may offer fiscal relief, but could undermine monetary stability and currency management in an uncertain global climate.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 22, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

iStock.com

LAF@25: Call Money Is A Dissonant Note In A Symphony

The last part of our LAF@25 series explores the evolution of the call money market and how it reflects policy shifts from broader access to tighter regulation.

R. Gurumurthy

May 21, 2025 at 4:07 AM IST

LAF@25: SDF – From A Corridor To A Comfort Zone

Part 2 of our LAF@25 series explores how the Standing Deposit Facility may be steering India’s liquidity corridor towards a de facto floor regime.

R. Gurumurthy

May 20, 2025 at 3:37 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

LAF@25: The Shifting Core Of India’s Monetary Operations

As the RBI’s Liquidity Adjustment Facility turns 25, this three-part series traces its evolution, limitations, and future as a monetary policy mainstay.

R. Gurumurthy

May 19, 2025 at 5:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Soft CPI Anchors Rate Cut Hopes, Narrows Path To 5.00% Terminal

April’s disinflation surprise resets the debate around where the rate cycle ends and how soon it gets there

Richard Fargose

May 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

April CPI Inflation Lowest Since July 2019, Stays Below RBI Target For 3rd Month

This is the last CPI release before Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting to be held June 4-6.

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

IndusInd Bank Crisis Is A Systemic Warning The RBI Can’t Ignore

The RBI should treat IndusInd Bank’s compliance failures as systemic red flags, not isolated events. Strengthening supervisory tools and embedding a culture of compliance may be overdue.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 10, 2025 at 3:51 AM IST

RBI’s ‘Stance’ Is Still Standing; But Should It Be Retired For Good?

The RBI clings to its ambiguous stance on monetary policy. In a world demanding clarity, is it still useful, or merely an obstacle to transparency?

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

Policy Rate Cuts Cannot Flow Freely With High Savings Scheme Rates

High small savings rates are distorting financial signals, muting policy transmission, and placing an avoidable burden on government finances.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 6, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

SBI Research Pushes For 50-BPS Jumbo Rate Cuts To Boost Transmission

The benign inflation outlook, coupled with a moderate growth forecast, has created what the bank describes as a “Goldilocks period” for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Insight

May 5, 2025 at 12:29 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

Poonam Gupta Takes Charge As RBI Deputy Governor, To Oversee Monetary Policy

Poonam Gupta’s tenure begins as the RBI undertakes a crucial review of its liquidity management framework.

BasisPoint Insight

May 2, 2025 at 9:15 AM IST

Gold: Security Blanket Or Speculator’s Dream?

Gold’s rise is driven less by fundamentals and more by fear, with central banks and speculators shaping its identity as both safety net and bubble.

R. Gurumurthy

May 2, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

iStock.com/D. Talukdar

Interview

RBI Has Ample Room To Cut Rates Further, Says MPC’s Saugata Bhattacharya

RBI models showed repo rate at 5.1-5.7%. The MPC member says he leans more towards the lower end of that range.

Rajesh Mahapatra

May 2, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

Liquidity: Sterilisation, Caution, Or Doubling Down?

FX book chickens come home to roost in 2025-26, and the RBI’s liquidity injections may need to grow even larger to avoid a fresh policy transmission hiccup.

Vivek Kumar

May 1, 2025 at 3:49 AM IST

Is the RBI’s Liquidity Blitz a Signal of Deeper Economic Strain?

An outsized bond purchase plan and aggressive liquidity support hint at a more serious undercurrent: faltering money supply, weak credit momentum, and growth worries.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

What Role Should SDF Play In RBI’s Next Liquidity Framework?

As the RBI rethinks its operating framework, the SDF’s function—transitional fix or structural floor—demands sharper institutional clarity.

Kalyan Ram

April 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

Growth Trumps Inflation in RBI’s April Minutes

With global shocks mounting, MPC minutes reveal deep concern over India’s growth path. Rate cut, dovish stance and liquidity flood now fully explained.

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM IST

RBI Finalises LCR Norms; Lowers Run-off Rate for Digital Retail Deposits

BasisPoint Insight

April 21, 2025 at 3:46 PM IST

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

Core Issue With India’s Inflation Isn’t Going Away

India’s headline inflation may have cooled, but seasonal effects mask the stickier rise in core prices—leaving RBI’s policy pivot on shaky ground.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM IST

iStock.com/:Radiokukka

RBI

Buffer That Wasn’t Needed And Why That Matters

RBI not triggering a key crisis buffer signals confidence in India’s financial stability—and a bet that growth can coexist with prudence.

Srinath Sridharan

April 16, 2025 at 3:33 PM IST

Gold Loan NBFCs To Face Operational Shift Under RBI’s New Draft Rules: Fitch

BasisPoint Insight

April 15, 2025 at 9:59 AM IST

If Regulator Steps Back, Who Steps In?

Critiques of RBI’s supervision miss the point—robust oversight is not ritual, it’s what shields Indian finance from fragility and failure.

Srinath Sridharan

April 15, 2025 at 7:22 AM IST

RBI

Indian E-Commerce May Get A Peek Of US Market, Fingers Crossed On Red Tape

Scrapping of de minimis exemption for China And Hong Kong Allows Indian Companies An Edge In shipping small items to the US

Ajay Srivastava

April 13, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

RBI's Supervision Needs Repair, Not Just More Rituals

Repeated lapses in oversight raise hard questions about whether India’s banking stability owes more to chance than to regulatory rigour.

Banker Emeritus

April 11, 2025 at 9:21 AM IST

RBI’s Quiet Fix For IndusInd Works, But Some Transparency Won’t Hurt Either

The RBI’s actions carry a preference for behind-the-scenes coordination, applying nudges or occasional pressure, rather than overt intervention.

Manoj Rane

April 11, 2025 at 7:28 AM IST

RBI

Moody’s Analytics Slashes India’s 2025 Growth Outlook by 30 Bps Amid External Headwinds

BasisPoint Insight

April 10, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

RBI’s Quiet Confidence Lets Markets Set The Rupee’s Course

As global currencies wobble under tariff pressures, the RBI is betting on India’s fundamentals to anchor the rupee—and avoiding panic interventions.

Richard Fargose

April 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM IST

RBI issues draft rules for gold loans to standardise norms across lenders

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 2:33 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

India’s Soft Power Can’t Plug A Hard Trade Hole

Services exports and remittances have held up. That doesn't mean India is shielded from China’s export onslaught.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 12:41 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Chooses Growth Over Inflation As Tariff War Clouds Intensify

The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance signals a growth-first approach, but its crisis response still feels too mild for the storm brewing.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

MPC Review

RBI Rewriting FX Market Playbook Amid Global Turbulence

RBI’s silence as the rupee swings signals a strategic shift—no more one-way bets, no guaranteed defence. The playbook is being rewritten.

Richard Fargose

April 8, 2025 at 9:21 AM IST

Shriram Finance Seeks RBI Nod To Set Up Primary Dealership: Report

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2025 at 6:49 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Resist Calls To Reopen The Fixed Rate Repo Window

Calls to revive the fixed repo window are gaining ground. The RBI must resist — or risk undoing a decade of hard-won liquidity discipline.

Basis Pundit

April 7, 2025 at 2:44 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Seen Cutting Repo Rate By 25 Bps As Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Most analysts anticipate a cumulative repo rate reduction of at least 75 bps by March 2026 if inflation remains within the target band.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

Rupee Steadies As RBI Fires On All Fronts To Calm FX And Liquidity

The rupee’s slide reversed as RBI stepped in with dollar sales, swap deals, and liquidity tools to restore calm without chasing a fixed exchange rate.

Manoj Rane

April 4, 2025 at 3:38 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

Reciprocal Tariffs: Brace For Impact

Should the RBI and indeed all central banks see the current situation as primarily an inflation problem or a growth problem?

Abheek Barua

April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM IST

Govt Appoints Poonam Gupta As RBI Deputy Governor

Poonam Gupta has been appointed as RBI Deputy Governor for a three-year term. She will oversee the Monetary Policy Department, influencing key decisions on interest rates and inflation management.

BasisPoint Insight

April 2, 2025 at 10:33 AM IST

RBI At 90: A Quiet Force Built On Trust, Selflessness, And service

As it marks 90 years, the RBI reaffirms its quiet power — a legacy of trust, selflessness, and unwavering commitment to public good.

Alpana Killawala

April 1, 2025 at 10:31 AM IST

Rangan Datta Wiki/ CC

RBI’s KYC Penalties: A Sisyphean Grind?

Bank penalties for KYC violations have become a ritual. Without systemic fixes, regulators and banks are stuck in a costly cycle of compliance theatre.

R. Gurumurthy

March 31, 2025 at 1:18 PM IST

bymuratdeniz/iStock.com

Earnings Recovery May Stall Under The Weight Of Fiscal Fatigue

Market hopes for an earnings revival rest on shaky ground as fiscal drag, weak job creation and tepid wage growth tighten the income squeeze.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 29, 2025 at 8:27 AM IST

iStock.com/Debjit Chakraborty

India’s Consumption Comeback Story Is Built On Shaky Ground

Official GDP data suggests a surge in household demand. A closer look at wage trends and sentiment reveals that the rebound may be mostly a mirage.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 28, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

RBI's Rate Cut Fails To Ease Market Rates Amid Tight Liquidity Grip

Despite easing inflation and a long-awaited rate cut, tight liquidity and weak transmission have kept market rates stubbornly high under RBI’s watch.

Manoj Rane

March 28, 2025 at 5:32 AM IST

Why RBI Must Ban Derivative Trades By Bank Insiders

IndusInd insiders traded derivatives while holding price-sensitive data. RBI must stop such conflicts before they corrode trust in the banking system.

Krishnadevan V

March 27, 2025 at 5:07 AM IST

Generalising/via Wikimedia Commons

RBI Raises Cap for Housing, Solar Panel Loans Under Priority Sector Lending

Richard Fargose

March 25, 2025 at 5:37 AM IST

RBI’s FX Swap Draws Strong Demand; Next Move Likely After MPC Meet

BasisPoint Insight

March 24, 2025 at 2:56 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Tentative Cut Likely Again; RBI May Prioritise Liquidity, Transmission

The RBI may cut rates again in April, but the focus will be on liquidity infusion and stronger pressure on banks to transmit cumulative cuts effectively.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 20, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

RBI

RBI Economists Flag Risks As Global Volatility, FPI Outflows Weigh On Economy

External uncertainty and financial market stress pose fresh challenges. The global divergence in monetary policy is also adding to volatility.

BasisPoint Insight

March 19, 2025 at 4:02 PM IST

SEBI's Curbs Keep Indian Investors Out Of Global Markets, Limiting Returns

SEBI’s overseas investment limits trap Indian investors, exposing them to volatility when FIIs exit and denying them access to global growth.

Krishnadevan V

March 19, 2025 at 3:38 AM IST

Jimmy vikas/cc

RBI’s Liquidity Blind Spot: Growth Needs A Clearer Policy

The Reserve Bank of India’s liquidity strategy has unsettled markets and heightened economic risks. A decisive shift is needed to safeguard growth just as inflation appears contained.

G. Mahalingam

March 18, 2025 at 6:56 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI Reaffirms Stability of IndusInd Bank Amid Accounting Discrepancies

BasisPoint Insight

March 15, 2025 at 8:04 AM IST

India’s Policy Shift, Capex Push Power Growth Recovery, Says Morgan Stanley

India’s recovery gains traction as capex surges, monetary easing kicks in, and services exports stay strong. Policy shifts will shape the next phase.

BasisPoint Insight

March 14, 2025 at 5:25 AM IST

iStock.com/lakshmiprasad S

IndusInd Bank - Battling Several Storms

The latest revelation adds to the nervousness following the CFO’s sudden resignation and the CEO receiving a shorter extension.

Sachin Malhotra

March 12, 2025 at 4:41 AM IST

Generalising from Cambridge, UK, via Wikimedia Commons

Financial Market Regulations Should Not Descend To Iatrogenesis

Regulatory tweaks in India's financial sector risk unintended harm—does over-caution cost more than its benefits?

R. Gurumurthy

March 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

RBI Liquidity: Rectitude, Discretion And King Canute

RBI must maintain core liquidity surplus at 0.5%-1.0% of NDTL in FY26 to ensure credit flow. Durable tools over repo reliance key to stability.

Vivek Kumar

March 8, 2025 at 7:22 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

With New RBI Chief And No Deputy, India’s Policy Clarity Is At Risk

RBI faces a policy vacuum as the key Deputy Governor post stays vacant, leaving a new non-economist Governor to navigate uncertain waters.

Richard Fargose

March 7, 2025 at 2:56 PM IST

RBI website

Market Digest

Equities Settle Higher for Second Consecutive Session; Oil Stocks Rally

An end of the day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets today, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Richard Fargose

March 6, 2025 at 12:25 PM IST

Opinion

MPC Must Abandon Neutrality To Reignite Growth Before It’s Too Late

With weakening growth and easing inflation, the RBI must abandon caution to spur investments and the economy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

RBI Swings To Action With OMO Buys As Rate Cut Getting Wasted

Markets shrugged off RBI’s first rate cut in five years — ₹1 trillion OMOs may get some bang for the buck, though not this month.

Kalyan Ram

March 6, 2025 at 4:11 AM IST

A Volatile Path To A Post-Meltdown Rebound

A rebound in the Indian equity market is certain, but the road to recovery is unlikely to be steady amid deeper macroeconomic pressures.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 5, 2025 at 7:05 PM IST

RBI’s $10 Billion FX Swap Sees Strong Demand, More May Follow

RBI’s record $10 billion FX swap draws $16 billion in bids, signalling strong demand as the central bank balances liquidity and reserves.

BasisPoint Insight

March 1, 2025 at 2:10 AM IST

RBI

Policy Flip On NBFC Rules Adds To Confounding Incrementalism

The rollback of NBFC lending curbs exposes deeper anxieties over rupee stability and structural economic frailties.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 28, 2025 at 4:13 AM IST

Liquidity Boost Or Is it Strategic Play In RBI’s $10 Billion FX Swap

RBI’s largest and longest-ever FX swap aims to inject liquidity, but its broader implications for corporates, hedging costs, and reserves raise questions about whether it is merely a liquidity fix.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 26, 2025 at 8:10 AM IST

Interview

The Rupee’s Adjustment: RBI’s Dilemma And Market Realities

RBI intervention in the NDF market is essential, although it has some risks.

Kalyan Ram

February 22, 2025 at 7:43 AM IST

Rupee At A Crossroads: Stability, Competitiveness, And The Fragility Of Reserves

India’s reserves are built on capital inflows rather than trade surplus, making them vulnerable to sudden exits.

Abheek Barua

February 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

India’s Fiscal Federalism – Quo Vadis?

Our fiscal federal arrangements are not only not loaded against states, but over time, they have, in fact, been shifting in favour of states.

Duvvuri Subbarao*

January 31, 2025 at 2:57 AM IST

The Bureau

GST Overhaul Seen Adding 0.7-0.8% to GDP this Year

India Bets on SCO to Blunt the Edge of US Tariffs and Sanctions

Fed Cut Hopes and Trump’s Japan Tariff Rollback Lift Market Sentiment

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s India Rant

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Setback for Trump Tariffs in US Court, Hope for Traders

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

Trump Tests the Guardrails of US Credibility

Market Makers

Sarci-Sense: About Silent Goodbyes & How Middle-Age Friendships Disappear

iStock.com