Strong GDP Print Knocks Back Market Hopes of RBI Rate Cut

BasisPoint Insight

November 28, 2025 at 11:24 AM IST

Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity

When monetary consensus turns to groupthink, inflation targeting risks losing its flexibility—and its purpose.

Ashima Goyal

November 13, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

RBI’s Auction Rebuff Calms Bonds, but Upside Risks to Yields Remain

India’s central bank’s surprise rejection of bids in a seven-year bond sale soothed markets briefly, yet underlying demand-supply tensions remain entrenched.

Yield Scribe

November 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

Interview

Calm Hands Steer India Through Policy Storms

Dr. Michael Patra’s new book reveals the inner theatre of India’s central banking—from crisis firefighting to quiet reforms.

Kalyan Ram

October 27, 2025 at 4:56 AM IST

RBI Sitting on 100 bps of Policy Space

If inflation stays near 2.5% and growth around 6.7%, the Taylor rule implies nearly 100 basis points of policy space for the RBI to cut rates.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

October 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

The Illusion of Balance: Why Centrism Can’t Lead India

India’s future won’t be shaped by the safety of the middle but by the strength of conviction. It needs moral clarity, not centrism, to guide its democracy.

Srinath Sridharan

October 15, 2025 at 7:45 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Fed Powell’s Cautious Tone, Trade Tensions Keep Risk Appetite in Check

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 15, 2025 at 1:33 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Briefing

Fed Vs RBI: How They Differ in Monetary Policy, Rates, Inflation Targeting

Inside the Fed and RBI: Why Two Central Banks See Inflation and Growth Differently

Babuji K

October 11, 2025 at 4:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Opinion

Reading Sanjay Malhotra’s Silent Dialogue

India’s newest central banker reveals more than he says in his latest MPC press conference. Beneath his composure lies a technocrat negotiating with himself.

Kirti Tarang Pande

October 6, 2025 at 5:37 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Review of MPC Decision: What Does it Mean to be Forward-Looking?

Is it forward-looking to let policy be decided by base effects, rather than encouraging the anchoring of inflation expectations at the target?

Ashima Goyal

October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

The Morning Edge

US Shutdown Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand, Drive Dollar Weakness

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

October 1, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

iStocks/Dmitry Vinogradov

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Stay on Hold in October to Preserve Stability

With inflation subdued and growth resilient but external shocks looming, the RBI’s wisest move in October is to pause and preserve stability.

N. Srinivasa Rao

September 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

MPC Framework

There Should Always be Food on RBI’s Inflation Plate

As India debates whether food prices should be excluded from inflation targets, the RBI will find itself balancing political pressure with institutional credibility. The RBI must remember that inflation is not a percentage point; it is the price of a plate of food.

Srinath Sridharan

August 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Digest

Gilt Yields Climb on GST Overhaul Amid Fiscal Concerns; Biggest Weekly Rise in 3 Years

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them.

Richard Fargose

August 22, 2025 at 3:00 PM IST

Fed Enters RBI Debate as Singh Flags Global Linkages

BasisPoint Insight

August 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

When a Rate Cut Feels Like a Hike and the Yield Curve Loses its Public Good Role

A 50-bps June cut has turned into a de facto hike as yields climb, eroding monetary transmission and adding to India’s fiscal costs.

Yield Scribe

August 11, 2025 at 2:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Narrows Fed Chair Search, Eyes Kugler Replacement This Week

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 6, 2025 at 1:39 AM IST

White House

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

"Did He Just Say That?" — A Critical Look At Central Bank Communication

Communication is not PR, it is policy. When central banks speak credibly, they can move economies without moving interest rates.

R. Gurumurthy

June 12, 2025 at 6:20 AM IST

iStock.com

A Vote Apart, Why Monetary Policy Needs Dissent

Dissent in the RBI’s rate-setting committee is not defiance. It is foresight. As policy turns bold, a lone voice may be asking the right questions.

Sujit Kumar and Rajendra Paramanik*

June 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

RBI Likely To Cut Rates Again As Inflation Benign, Trade Uncertainty Lingers

Most polls suggest the RBI may cut rates by 25 basis points for a third consecutive time on June 6.

BasisPoint Insight

June 4, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Interview

MPC Needs Exchange Rate Lens In 2026 Overhaul, Says Ex-RBI Chief

Subbarao says ignoring the rupee in policy calculus is risky, and calls for a wider MPC mandate in the review of the framework in Part 2 of a four-part interview.

Kalyan Ram

June 4, 2025 at 3:23 AM IST

Monetary Policy Or Market Theatre? When Headlines Front-Run The RBI

Overconfident headlines and speculative forecasts risk distorting monetary policy deliberations and undermining institutional credibility.

Srinath Sridharan

June 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM IST

IStock.com

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

RBI’s ‘Stance’ Is Still Standing; But Should It Be Retired For Good?

The RBI clings to its ambiguous stance on monetary policy. In a world demanding clarity, is it still useful, or merely an obstacle to transparency?

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

Growth Trumps Inflation in RBI’s April Minutes

With global shocks mounting, MPC minutes reveal deep concern over India’s growth path. Rate cut, dovish stance and liquidity flood now fully explained.

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM IST

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Steps Up Easing Cycle with Another 25 bps Rate Cut, Stance Accommodative

RBI's move reflects the MPC’s view that inflation risks have moderated and that there is a need to address domestic growth amid global uncertainties.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Deputy Governor Gupta Likely To Miss MPC Meet Due to Delayed Appointment

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2025 at 2:01 PM IST

Govt Appoints Poonam Gupta As RBI Deputy Governor

Poonam Gupta has been appointed as RBI Deputy Governor for a three-year term. She will oversee the Monetary Policy Department, influencing key decisions on interest rates and inflation management.

BasisPoint Insight

April 2, 2025 at 10:33 AM IST

CPI Inflation Slips In Below RBI Target, Core Slips Out

February inflation fell below the RBI’s target. With growth in focus, another rate cut in April looks increasingly likely.

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 12:44 PM IST

Opinion

MPC Must Abandon Neutrality To Reignite Growth Before It’s Too Late

With weakening growth and easing inflation, the RBI must abandon caution to spur investments and the economy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

The Bureau

India’s Exports to US Fall 28.5% in Past Five Months as Tariffs Batter Key Sectors

Sensex, Nifty Hold Firm; India’s GDP Accelerates to 8.2% in July-September

Strong GDP Print Knocks Back Market Hopes of RBI Rate Cut

NCLT Approves National Spot Exchange’s Settlement Scheme With Traders

IMF Reclassifies India’s Exchange-Rate Regime as “Crawl-like arrangement”

Cabinet Oks Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnets Manufacturing Scheme

Govt’s Farm Research Body Rejects Allegations on Gene-Edited Rice

Sundeep Sikka on Building Team at Nippon MF & the Future of Mutual Funds | Market Makers Part - II

Jallikattu: Tamil Nadu’s Ancient Bull-Taming Tradition