Are Interest Rates in India Too Low?

Indian bond yields may be running below levels implied by growth and inflation, fuelling leverage, asset-price excesses, capital outflows and pressure on the rupee.

Sanjay Mansabdar

September 18, 2026 at 12:24 PM IST

iStock.com

Why Are Bond Yields Unyielding?

Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 14, 2026 at 5:10 AM IST

istock.com

PD Fees Highest Since April as Overseas Pressure Raises Devolvement Fears

BasisPoint Insight

September 11, 2026 at 6:52 AM IST

Long Bond Demand Holds Even As Short-End Wants More

The MPC minutes challenged the market's initial dovish interpretation of the policy. In the bond market, that means investors are not saying long-term rates are headed upward, but instead that short-term rate uncertainty requires a higher premium.

Dehuti Jani

August 25, 2026 at 5:50 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Has Bought Time; India Must Now Earn Its Dollars

The RBI has bought stability with borrowed dollars. India must use this costly reprieve to boost growth, raise exports, retain capital, and restore investor confidence.

Kalyan Ram

August 4, 2026 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Close the Door on Easing with a Stance Change

The August policy need not deliver a hike. It should deliver recognition that India should not meet a harder monetary world with an easing bias left ajar.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 3, 2026 at 3:59 AM IST

Bloomberg Defers Decision on India’s Inclusion in Global Aggregate Index

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2026 at 1:12 PM IST

Is SBI's AT1 Issuance A Blip Or Are Banks Back on The Bond Street?

Whether SBI's issue points to a sustained revival remains to be seen, but the data increasingly points to a structural shift where domestic bond markets have become a funding option rather than a necessity.

Dehuti Jani

July 30, 2026 at 8:18 AM IST

IStock.com

July Fed Decision Is a Cliffhanger as Warsh Keeps Markets Guessing

The data favour a hold, but markets cannot rule out a credibility-building rate increase and the financial instability that could follow.

Yield Scribe

July 29, 2026 at 6:23 AM IST

US Fed

Why the Outgoing 15-Year Benchmark Gilt Is the Market’s Hottest Bond

One bond, two opposing bets: foreign investors are buying the 6.68% 2040 gilt while domestic traders position for its benchmark exit.

Nishat Anjum

July 23, 2026 at 10:16 AM IST

Are Indian Equities Getting Their Mojo Back?

After months of selling, foreign investors are returning. Has India quietly regained its appeal in global portfolios?

Michael Debabrata Patra

July 16, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Rally Gives Way to a Wider Market Test

Dollar funding, oil and foreign inflows will shape not only sovereign yields but also the rupee, bank liquidity and corporate borrowing costs.

Yield Scribe

July 16, 2026 at 7:08 AM IST

istock.com

A Japanese Wake-Up Call for America

Japan’s deepening currency and bond-market woes should be a wake-up call for other countries that appear to be on unsustainable fiscal paths, not least the United States, as well as France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. After all, a crisis in one country often draws investors' attention to others facing similar problems.

Desmond Lachman

July 14, 2026 at 4:08 AM IST

iStock.com

India Cannot Become Developed On Bank Credit Alone

No major economy has achieved developed-nation status by relying predominantly on banks. India must now build corporate debt markets worthy of its ambitions.

Srinath Sridharan

July 13, 2026 at 6:56 AM IST

IStock.com

India's Fiscal Stress Predated the West Asia Shock

India's rupee and bonds weakened before the US-Iran crisis, signalling investor concern over debt, state deficits and RBI support, not oil alone.

Apoorva Javadekar

July 1, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

IStock.com

Foreign Money Returns but Conviction Remains Short

Foreign investors have rushed back into government bonds after the latest policy measures, but their preference for shorter maturities suggests caution remains.

Nishat Anjum

June 9, 2026 at 2:42 PM IST

Ten-Year Yield May Drift To 7.25-7.50% By March

The RBI’s rupee-support package should give gilts near-term respite, but inflation, fiscal risks and the expected turn in the policy cycle could push up yields.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

June 8, 2026 at 1:48 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

Using Monetary Policy’s Degrees of Freedom

Calls for rate hikes to support the rupee overlook the flexibility built into India’s inflation-targeting framework and the RBI’s wider toolkit.

Ashima Goyal

June 3, 2026 at 3:12 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Debate Needs a Wider Lens

India must shift from bank-led infrastructure finance to deeper bond markets that price risk transparently and recycle long-term savings into new assets.

Arvind Mayaram

May 29, 2026 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

Briefing

Hasn’t Central Banking Moved Beyond Brainard?

A famous monetary policy principle holds that central banks should act cautiously amid uncertainty. Modern theory worries that excessive caution may itself become the bigger risk.

BasisPoint Insight

May 20, 2026 at 3:31 AM IST

Will India Once Again Turn to Its Diaspora for Capital, and Will It Work?

The government will have to weigh the high cost of any heavy-duty intervention against both its likely benefits and the effectiveness of alternative policy options.

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2026 at 8:55 AM IST

Istock.com

Who Speaks for Markets Inside the RBI?

As supervision dominates RBI leadership, the central bank risks losing the market instincts needed for liquidity and transmission.

Banker Emeritus

May 7, 2026 at 10:24 AM IST

RBI’s Currency Curbs Leave Markets Nursing More Than Losses

Forced FX unwinds have imposed losses, but the deeper impact is behavioural. Markets may turn cautious amid concerns about risk, liquidity, and RBI initiatives.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

Accounting By Asterisk

Banks seek to defer MTM losses as yields rise, but masking volatility risks weakening discipline and blurring the line between transparency and regulatory convenience.

R. Gurumurthy

April 6, 2026 at 1:41 PM IST

iStock.com

When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy

Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see countries with stability and growth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 18, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

The Comfort of Stability, The Cost of Silence

India’s bond market looks stable, but heavy RBI support and captive demand may be weakening price signals, distorting risk, and dulling its role as the system’s benchmark.

R. Gurumurthy

March 17, 2026 at 10:30 AM IST

iStock.com

Fixing Arbitrage: The Missing Link in India’s Bond Market

India’s bond market may deepen only when regulatory arbitrage fades and banks begin allocating capital using a clearer risk-adjusted return framework.

Rahul Ghosh

March 9, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

iStock.com

Global Markets Are Learning to Price Geopolitics First

Geopolitics is reshaping global finance. From bond yields to supply chains, markets now price political alignment and strategic power alongside economics.

Chandrika Soyantar

March 9, 2026 at 4:18 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Puzzle: The Missing Market Makers

India’s bond market lacks depth because trading remains thin. Unless natural players like the banks take a larger role in government and corporate debt, liquidity and benchmarks will remain weak.

Rahul Ghosh

March 6, 2026 at 7:47 AM IST

iStock.com

Borrowing Without Bruising the Curve in 2026-27

Supply discipline, SDL restraint and liquidity calibration will determine whether ₹16 trillion sails smoothly or strains duration again.

Yield Scribe

March 2, 2026 at 3:27 AM IST

Finance Ministry

India’s Liquidity Surplus Masks a Structural Shortage?

India’s liquidity looks ample on paper, but thin reserve buffers and weak deposit elasticity reveal a deeper structural strain.

Kalyan Ram

February 18, 2026 at 12:32 PM IST

Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market?

RBI’s TRS framework promises synthetic liquidity in corporate bonds, but without deeper cash markets, derivatives may amplify fragility, not depth.

R. Gurumurthy

February 16, 2026 at 3:25 AM IST

iStock.com

Bond Market Mood Turns as Inflation Reset Cools Yields

Lower January core CPI numbers in the new series, reduced gross borrowing, and softer global yields pause the selloff, though heavy supply keeps the bears around.

Yield Scribe

February 16, 2026 at 2:22 AM IST

India’s Rebased CPI Signals Softer Core, Says I-Sec PD

Core inflation under the new CPI prints sharply lower, prompting a cut in 2026-27 inflation forecasts and reinforcing the case for an RBI pause.

BasisPoint Insight

February 14, 2026 at 5:39 AM IST

India’s Missing Power Is Financial

India has economic scale and military strength, but without a deep bond market, it remains a limited power.

Rahul Ghosh

February 9, 2026 at 10:58 AM IST

QuantEco Sees 10-Year Yield at 6.75% by March 2026 and 6.90% by 2027

The research house said liquidity, rather than supply or rates, would remain the binding constraint for the bond market over the next four to six quarters.

BasisPoint Insight

February 7, 2026 at 2:01 PM IST

MPC Review

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

February 7, 2026 at 1:51 PM IST

MPC Review

Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus

RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage.

Shailendra Jhingan

February 6, 2026 at 12:25 PM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

MPC Review

RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort

Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 6, 2026 at 10:53 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI and the Bond Market Are Living in Parallel Worlds

Bond yields now reflect supply pressures, not policy signals. Until that changes, the RBI and bond markets will continue to operate in parallel worlds.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 10:37 AM IST

iStock.com

Budget 2026

A Quiet Budget Signal That Could Wake India’s Corporate Bond Market

A low-key Budget proposal on total return swaps could transform India’s corporate bond market if regulators align infrastructure, liquidity and risk appetite in time.

Karan Mehrishi

February 5, 2026 at 8:20 AM IST

MPC Review

Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce

Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint.

Madhavi Arora

February 5, 2026 at 5:29 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

February 4, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

MPC Review

When Monetary Space is Spent Too Early

Markets are reacting less to fiscal arithmetic and more to a policy sequence that has left limited monetary room just as pressures build.

R. Gurumurthy

February 4, 2026 at 5:18 AM IST

Economic Survey Flags Fiscal Strain on States from Cash Transfers

"With markets pricing government debt on a consolidated basis, persistent revenue deficits or an expansion of committed expenditures at the State level could affect sovereign bond yields."

BasisPoint Insight

January 29, 2026 at 8:53 AM IST

iStock.com

Japan’s Bond Shock Isn’t a Crisis — But It May Be a Warning Shot

Japan’s bond shock isn’t a collapse, but a warning that fiscal credibility, safe assets and global rate stability can no longer be taken for granted.

R. Gurumurthy

January 21, 2026 at 3:29 PM IST

iStock.com

Budget 2026

India’s Bond Market Will Test the RBI in 2026-27

Nearly ₹30 trillion in bond supply and fragile demand mean yields will remain high in 2026–27 unless the RBI steps in as the buyer of last resort.

Yield Scribe

January 20, 2026 at 7:02 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Budget 2026

A Budget for Capital Formation, Not Just Fiscal Bookkeeping

India’s real budget challenge isn’t deficit maths but mobilising patient capital, deep savings and long-term risk-taking in a capital-scarce economy.

R. Gurumurthy

January 19, 2026 at 6:42 AM IST

iStock.com

Budget 2026

Budget’s Bond Test Lies in Solving the States’ Borrowing Problem

With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, would it make more sense for the federal government to borrow on behalf of states?

Yield Scribe

January 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

istock

India’s Bond Yields Are Rising for a Reason, and It Isn’t the Centre

India’s fiscal optics look tidy, but swelling state borrowings are distorting bond yields, overwhelming demand and blunting the RBI’s liquidity toolkit.

Yield Scribe

January 6, 2026 at 3:37 AM IST

iStock.com

Why Are Our Markets Behind the Curve?

Despite strong macro fundamentals, Indian markets lag peers. Global rotation, AI exuberance and timing gaps may explain the disconnect, hinting at a delayed rebound.

Michael Debabrata Patra

January 1, 2026 at 3:46 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

The Yen Carry Trade, a Piano and Trump’s World View

From the Plaza Accord to the yen carry trade, Japan’s monetary history shaped global finance—and helped forge Trump’s tariff-driven worldview rooted in 1980s economic anxieties.

TK Arun

December 31, 2025 at 7:32 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Infrastructure Debt Funds: Another Missing Piece in Circular Green Finance

Green finance has plenty of tools, but debt remains stuck. Why Infrastructure Debt Funds could unlock circularity—and why their absence is holding back climate investment at scale.

Arvind Mayaram

December 29, 2025 at 4:59 AM IST

iStock.com

The Underpriced Asset Class: Pleasant Uncertainties

Markets price fear well but relief poorly. Peace in Ukraine could compress uncertainty, steady the dollar, lift EMs and drive rotation.

R. Gurumurthy

December 23, 2025 at 5:48 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Market Is No Longer Listening to the RBI

Rate cuts, benign inflation and strong growth optics should have eased yields. The bond market’s refusal to comply is a warning of deeper structural fault lines.

Madhavi Arora

December 18, 2025 at 6:05 AM IST

Opinion

A Year of Recalibration at Mint Street

Governor Malhotra’s first year at the RBI brought cleaner rules, quieter reversals, and a distinct shift in tone as the technocrat adjusted to the institution’s rhythm.

Kalyan Ram

December 11, 2025 at 5:25 AM IST

RBI Tweets

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM IST

Back to the Future – The Tokyo Drift

A look at Japan and China shows how familiar policy instincts can trap economies in slow-growth loops, even when policymakers believe they know better.

V Thiagarajan

December 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction

Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins.

R. Gurumurthy

November 17, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

RBI

State Borrowing Pressures Keep Long-End Yields on Edge

State governments’ borrowing programme needed a fix three months ago and is now proving difficult to stabilise.

Yield Scribe

November 12, 2025 at 2:54 AM IST

YES Bank: A Rescue Worth Remembering; and Questioning

The rescue of YES Bank is now being hailed as a success story. Yet beneath the celebration lies a deeper moral hazard of a system that rescued itself while investors paid the price.

Banker Emeritus

November 10, 2025 at 2:16 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Briefing

The Paradox of Victory: The Winner’s Curse in India’s Bond Auctions

How India’s government bond auctions reveal the winner’s curse, where success can conceal costly misjudgements and shape financial market behaviour.

Babuji K

November 4, 2025 at 7:14 AM IST

iStock.com

SEBI Wants to Wake Up India’s Sleeping Public Issue Bond Market

Can SEBI’s incentives revive India’s quiet public bond market? Will retail investors return if bonds feel safer, simpler—and just a bit more rewarding?

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

November 3, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Auction Rebuff Calms Bonds, but Upside Risks to Yields Remain

India’s central bank’s surprise rejection of bids in a seven-year bond sale soothed markets briefly, yet underlying demand-supply tensions remain entrenched.

Yield Scribe

November 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

Centre Primes States With Early Cash Before Festivals

New Delhi’s advance tax devolution gives states more firepower, but risks widening bond spreads and straining its own balance sheet.

BasisPoint Insight

October 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Is the Hunt for a Terminal Repo Rate a Distraction?

Markets may be too eager to bottom-fish for a terminal repo rate. In today’s fluid context, flexibility could matter more than fixation.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Monetary Policy

Time for RBI to Recount, Reset

Beyond the rate call, the October review must recount what has been done, what was achieved, and set the compass for policy in the year ahead.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Briefing

Bitcoin Inside - Are We Smelling a Super-Prime Crisis?

Strive’s $1.3 billion deal shows how Bitcoin inside corporate wrappers creates systemic risk

R. Gurumurthy

September 24, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

Istock/BlackJack3D

Monetary Policy

India’s Wage Malaise Leaves RBI Little Room to Hide

With inflation subdued and nominal growth slipping, structural reforms and monetary easing must work together. The October policy is a test of intent.

Yield Scribe

September 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Exemptions, Nil Rates and Other Smoke and Mirrors

GST relief looks big on paper, but gaps in input credit and energy taxes mean consumers will see less benefit than portrayed.

TK Arun

September 9, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Briefing

When Ratings Lose Their Voice in Markets

Sovereign ratings once swayed markets. Today, investors treat them as lagging signals in a world where information moves faster than agencies.

V Thiagarajan

September 4, 2025 at 9:27 AM IST

Wikicommons

State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

The Global Economy Shrugged

Global growth has defied Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with households, firms, and markets adapting swiftly, leaving economists puzzled by the resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 1, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Market Needs A Big Bang Reform Now

Trump’s tariff chaos has unsettled US bonds. India must seize this moment to reform its debt market and revive private infrastructure play.

TK Arun

April 19, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

The Bureau

Indian shares fall to near six-month lows, Rupee weakens on oil surge

Tata Trusts Propose Merger Plan to Take Tata Sons Out of NBFC, CIC Frameworks

India August industrial growth 8.0% on manufacturing, power boost

Tata Mistrust: Bombay House Boardroom Battle Heats Up

CREA’s Claim of Indian Fuel Exports to Russia via Egypt Needs Scrutiny

India’s Gilt Market Faces Pressure on Every Front, Curve Seen Bear-Flattening

August CPI Turns October RBI Meeting Into a Live Rate-Hike Call

GDP, Geoeconomics & The China Conundrum?

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh