Selected Tag: Basis View

Basis View

Basis View is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

RBI’s FX Moves

What Else Is the Rupee Defending?

India’s GDP ambitions carry a political timetable. Rupee depreciation adds to the risk of pushing that timetable back.

Basis View

October 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Preview

What Is the RBI Hiking For?

RBI looks set to hike. The real question is whether it is catching up with markets or committing to a sustained fight to restore inflation to 4%.

Basis View

October 2, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

The GDP Debate India Should Welcome and Sustain

The argument over India’s growth numbers is healthy because it has shifted attention from identity politics to jobs, investment and policy.

Basis View

September 4, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Warsh’s Quiet Fed Shifts Uncertainty to Markets

Jackson Hole made the case for greater Fed discretion. The price is a less visible reaction function and more uncertainty for markets.

Basis View

September 1, 2026 at 3:20 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

India’s $73 Billion Forex Buffer is Insurance, Not Triumph

Concessional swaps can buy valuable protection, but dressing liability-funded reserves as proof of economic strength risks eroding credibility.

Basis View

August 25, 2026 at 7:36 AM IST

Finance Ministry

CEA Nageswaran Is Tempering His Obligatory Optimism

By questioning ethanol, AI, private capex, market exuberance, and external resilience, V Anantha Nageswaran is restoring constructive doubt to policy.

Basis View

August 18, 2026 at 1:39 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Close the Door on Easing with a Stance Change

The August policy need not deliver a hike. It should deliver recognition that India should not meet a harder monetary world with an easing bias left ajar.

Basis View

August 3, 2026 at 3:59 AM IST

The Market Is Pricing the RBI, Not Inflation

June CPI rose, yet rate-hike calls faded. The market is pricing the RBI’s growth bias—not inflation—and echoing the central bank back to itself.

Basis View

July 15, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

istock.com

Mind the New Numbers

India is changing how it measures growth and prices. Bond and currency markets should pay attention

Basis View

July 13, 2026 at 6:44 AM IST

istock.com

No Victory Lap on a Smouldering Truce

Fresh US strikes on Iran show that the ceasefire is at best an interval in a wider conflict; India must stay alert, not relieved.

Basis View

July 8, 2026 at 6:56 AM IST

istock.com

Malhotra’s Message to Markets: No Case Yet for Rate Hikes

RBI is declining to act before inflation becomes visible, broad-based and persistent. It doesn’t want markets to brace for a tightening cycle yet.

Basis View

June 24, 2026 at 1:33 PM IST

Trump’s Iran Deal: This Is What Cutting Losses Looks Like

The agreement is neither victory nor surrender. It is Washington’s recognition that a costly war had stopped serving American interests and that even Israel cannot dictate the limits of US strategy.

Basis View

June 19, 2026 at 8:57 AM IST

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

Basis View

June 18, 2026 at 3:56 AM IST

US Fed

Not Every Oil Shock or Sharp Currency Move is 1991

Oil shocks always warrant vigilance, but this time around India’s external buffers, services export strength, and improved policy framework make 1991 analogies more distracting than useful.

Basis View

June 16, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Cannot Afford to Look Through This Shock

The RBI's own forecasts suggest it cannot ignore energy and food shocks. Rising core inflation may require rates to move back towards 6%.

Basis View

June 8, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Defends the Framework, Not the Rupee

The RBI chose capital-flow measures over rate action, reinforcing the principle that inflation and growth, not the exchange rate, remain monetary policy's primary mandate.

Basis View

June 5, 2026 at 6:08 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

The Rupee Does Not Need a Speaking Role in Monetary Policy

The June review will be scrutinised for clues on how the MPC views rupee weakness, as an inflation risk or as a monetary policy consideration.

Basis View

June 4, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Istock.com

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

Basis View

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

Above and Beyond Duty

Current macroeconomic stress may mute criticism over the disproportionate increase in cess relative to customs duty in the latest hike in import taxes on gold and silver.

Basis View

May 13, 2026 at 9:27 AM IST

stock/Andy

Congress Finds an Opening as Rivals Fade, but Time is Running Out

Congress faces a narrower but clearer path as rivals fade, but without vision and organisational reset, the opening may yet strengthen the BJP’s dominance.

Basis View

May 5, 2026 at 8:28 AM IST

inc.in/

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

Basis View

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

Basis View

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI’s Currency Curbs Leave Markets Nursing More Than Losses

Forced FX unwinds have imposed losses, but the deeper impact is behavioural. Markets may turn cautious amid concerns about risk, liquidity, and RBI initiatives.

Basis View

April 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

MPC Minutes

When Neat Policy Theory Meets a Messier Reality

The RBI’s April minutes show a textbook response to a supply shock, but the Iran conflict is testing the limits of clean policy rules.

Basis View

April 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

Basis View

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Risk Signals, Not Reassurance from RBI’s GDP, CPI Projections

RBI’s latest projections acknowledge a harder macro trade-off, with external shocks reviving inflation risks and forcing policy into a more conditional, risk-managed stance.

Basis View

April 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

War Breaks the Policy Cycle

The April MPC ends the disinflation-led easing phase, pushing the RBI into a supply-shock regime where inflation risks rise even as growth weakens.

Basis View

April 8, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Faces a Real Interrogation as Markets Probe Its Playbook

In a multi-shock setting, the question is no longer about reassurance, but whether the reaction function holds

Basis View

April 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM IST

Stop Calling It a Favour

Fuel price stability is not a favour from the state. It is paid for by taxpayers and balance sheets, and presenting it otherwise distorts accountability.

Basis View

March 27, 2026 at 7:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Shock Rules, Not Shock Responses

Lagarde’s three principles recast shock response as risk management. For the RBI, the task shifts to containing spillovers, not just inflation.

Basis View

March 26, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

Basis View

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

Geopolitics

When Neutrality Becomes Silence

As wars increasingly become theatres for technological display, rising powers such as India may need to move beyond strategic autonomy and articulate the principles that should still govern the use of force.

Basis View

March 7, 2026 at 12:31 PM IST

iStock.com

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

Basis View

February 26, 2026 at 3:38 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

Basis View

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India–US Trade Deal, the EU Trigger and the Limits of Celebration

The India–US trade deal offers tariff relief, not a clear win. India has conceded ground, gained breathing space, and must now wait for the fine print to determine the balance.

Basis View

February 3, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

White House

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

Basis View

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

Basis View

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Cuts Rates, Reading Softness Beneath the 8.2% Shine

RBI cut rates despite 8.2% growth, signalling it sees early softening beneath the headline and is using rare disinflation space to steady momentum and cool yields.

Basis View

December 5, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

Basis View

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

Fiscal Calm Masks Fragile Math Built on Windfalls and Deflators

India may meet its 4.4% deficit goal this year, but only through one-off gains and statistical cushions that leave its fiscal base exposed.

Basis View

November 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Indian Refiners Lose the Russian Cushion

Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten to upend India’s cost advantage in crude oil imports.

Basis View

October 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

Basis View

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

WRAP

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

Basis View

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Monetary Policy

Time for RBI to Recount, Reset

Beyond the rate call, the October review must recount what has been done, what was achieved, and set the compass for policy in the year ahead.

Basis View

September 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Powell’s Quiet Win Against Trump’s Noise

Powell rallied colleagues for a cautious cut, resisting Trump’s pressure. His quiet resilience showed the Fed can still steer its own course.

Basis View

September 18, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

White House

Global Leaders Turn Modi’s 75th Birthday Into Diplomatic Spectacle

At 75, Modi’s birthday became a stage for diplomacy and spectacle, with tributes reflecting both his stature and India’s shifting place in the world.

Basis View

September 17, 2025 at 2:11 PM IST

PIB

Why India’s Stock Markets are Poised for a Major Shift

SEBI reforms unlock mega IPOs and foreign capital with SWAGAT initiative, setting the stage for stable, long-term investments in India

Basis View

September 13, 2025 at 11:27 AM IST

Jimmy vikas/cc

A New Approach in Trump’s War On Powell

Trump’s latest jab at Powell swaps brute force for reductio ad absurdum, arming his Fed critique with jokes, jargon, and a dash of intellectual flair.

Basis View

September 10, 2025 at 2:08 AM IST

Cash Cows, Not Tech Leaders

Indian IT fattens shareholders with buybacks, but starves itself of ideas. Cash cows seldom become global tech pioneers.

Basis View

September 9, 2025 at 6:08 AM IST

iStock.com

Eggheads, Not Cheerleaders

When institutional heads slip into boosterism, they stop being referees and start misleading the very investors they are meant to protect.

Basis View

September 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM IST

iStock.com

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

Basis View

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

Powell’s Precarious Balance

Powell’s Jackson Hole signal of a rate cut showed a Fed caught between rising unemployment risks and Trump’s tariff-fuelled inflation pressures.

Basis View

August 22, 2025 at 4:41 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

Basis View

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Lilavati Case Puts HDFC Bank Chief in Unwanted Spotlight

A courtroom battle over Mumbai’s Lilavati Trust has put HDFC Bank chief Sashidhar Jagdishan’s reputation on trial far beyond the balance sheet.

Basis View

August 19, 2025 at 8:04 AM IST

WikiCommons

When the RBI Governor’s Words Move More Than Just Markets

Two recent flare-ups show why Sanjay Malhotra must blend facts with empathy because, for an RBI governor, every word can be policy.

Basis View

August 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

Basis View

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

RBI Should Rethink Its FX Swap Playbook Amid Trump Tariff Threats

Ample liquidity tempts RBI to deliver on its $5 billion swap, but rising external risks call for preserving reserves and slowing forward unwinding.

Basis View

July 31, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Powell Weighs Politics and Data as Trump Heat Clouds Fed’s Path

Political fire and mixed data frame this week’s Fed decision; Powell must hold the centre while keeping September easing firmly in play.

Basis View

July 29, 2025 at 11:02 AM IST

White House

TCS Job Cuts

Parliament Must Confront Security Lapses — Then Tackle Jobs Crisis

Operation Sindoor deserves scrutiny, but once the debate concludes, Parliament must address the rising unemployment and demand a credible jobs strategy.

Basis View

July 29, 2025 at 3:54 AM IST

PIB

Why Doesn’t India’s Red-Hot Manufacturing Reflect in Industrial Output?

India’s manufacturing PMI is soaring, suggesting robust industrial momentum — but official factory output data tell a more subdued story. What explains this disconnect?

Basis View

July 25, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

iStock.com

Storm in a Tea Cup, Signal in the Steam

RBI lets call rate rise to repo, not to shock but to signal. The WACR is still the anchor, and markets now have no excuse to think otherwise.

Basis View

July 22, 2025 at 3:16 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Caution vs Control: Why India’s Top Two Banks Are Taking Different Routes

HDFC Bank is building buffers. ICICI Bank is building momentum. Investors are being asked to choose between precaution and precision.

Basis View

July 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM IST

iStock/Mrinal Pal

CRR Deserves More Respect Than Being Reduced to the “New Normal”

By normalising a lower CRR, the RBI risks trivialising a potent policy tool. Clarity, discipline and market signals could all be at stake.

Basis View

July 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Refreshing Candour in Indian Corporate Transition

Dilip Piramal’s rare candour in admitting failure and backing PE for VIP’s revival sets a welcome benchmark for corporate honesty.

Basis View

July 15, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

Fiscal Puritanism Is India’s Bet On Sovereign Strength

India’s quiet fiscal restraint is more than prudence. It is a strategic choice to secure cheaper capital, improve ratings, and achieve long-term growth.

Basis View

July 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM IST

RBI

Politics Before Prudence: The Art Of Freezing Small Savings Rates

Small savings rates stay frozen for voters' comfort, leaving the RBI to wonder how rate cuts are meant to work.

Basis View

July 8, 2025 at 10:40 AM IST

iStock.com

Monsoon Mask Fails to Hide India’s Industrial Demand Weakness

June’s industrial slump goes beyond weather disruptions, exposing deeper cracks in consumer demand that policymakers cannot ignore.

Basis View

July 2, 2025 at 12:55 PM IST

iStock.com

Ambition Meets Risk In India’s Employment Linked Incentive Scheme

India’s Employment Linked Incentive Scheme is bold in scope but faces tough questions on targeting, fraud and fiscal risk.

Basis View

July 1, 2025 at 3:18 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI And Government Reports Choose Cheerleading Over Clarity

Official assessments paint a Goldilocks picture while downplaying real risks of uneven demand, fragile investment and rural stress.

Basis View

June 30, 2025 at 4:57 AM IST

iStock.com

Early Monsoon Tempers Output, But Macro Signals Turn Upbeat

The early onset of the monsoon has brightened agricultural prospects and improved the inflation outlook, even as it appears to have weighed on industrial growth. Other sectors have shown resilience, and early indicators from June point to a recovery.

Basis View

June 27, 2025 at 3:01 PM IST

istocks/ABHISHEK KUMAR SAH

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

Basis View

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

Basis View

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

Basis View

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

Basis View

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Early Onset No Guarantee For A Good Monsoon

Monsoon’s early arrival has raised hopes of a strong season. But history shows that an early onset is no assurance of normal rainfall—2009 being a stark reminder.

Basis View

May 26, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

Basis View

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Economic Activity Holds Up Despite Turbulence; Consumption Softens

GST collections and export growth remained robust in April, but high-frequency indicators point to weakening rural demand. Inflation print strengthens the case for more rate cuts.

Basis View

May 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM IST

IStock.com/paulprescott72

IndusInd Bank Crisis Is A Systemic Warning The RBI Can’t Ignore

The RBI should treat IndusInd Bank’s compliance failures as systemic red flags, not isolated events. Strengthening supervisory tools and embedding a culture of compliance may be overdue.

Basis View

May 10, 2025 at 3:51 AM IST

Policy Rate Cuts Cannot Flow Freely With High Savings Scheme Rates

High small savings rates are distorting financial signals, muting policy transmission, and placing an avoidable burden on government finances.

Basis View

May 6, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

India’s Retail Pulse Shifts From Premium To Practical

The retail sector is tilting towards value chains like Vishal and D-Mart, as inflation-weary shoppers prize thrift over trend.

Basis View

May 6, 2025 at 7:54 AM IST

Rajasekhar1961/Via WikiCommons

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

Basis View

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

Is the RBI’s Liquidity Blitz a Signal of Deeper Economic Strain?

An outsized bond purchase plan and aggressive liquidity support hint at a more serious undercurrent: faltering money supply, weak credit momentum, and growth worries.

Basis View

April 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

Basis View

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

Indian IT’s Real Reckoning Isn’t Tariffs Or AI

Three decades of steady growth have lulled Indian IT giants into complacency. The world is no longer willing to pay for their inefficiencies.

Basis View

April 19, 2025 at 7:22 AM IST

iStock.com/Kandarp Gupta

India’s Growth Momentum Held In March, But Storm Clouds Gather

A spurt in March high-frequency data suggests India ended 2024-25 on a firm footing. But global trade shocks and weak urban demand could weigh on growth ahead.

Basis View

April 17, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

India’s Soft Power Can’t Plug A Hard Trade Hole

Services exports and remittances have held up. That doesn't mean India is shielded from China’s export onslaught.

Basis View

April 9, 2025 at 12:41 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

Basis View

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

Basis View

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

IMD’s Monsoon Forecasts: Feeling Under The Weather

IMD’s monsoon forecasts miss the mark most of the time. Can India’s economy weather unreliable predictions?

Basis View

April 5, 2025 at 11:28 AM IST

iStock.com/AROYBARMAN

India’s Muted Response To US Tariffs Contrasts With Global Assertiveness

India’s restrained response to US tariffs contrasts with China’s assertive tone and EU warnings. New Delhi offers optics, not direction.

Basis View

April 3, 2025 at 1:11 PM IST

India Singled Out In Trump’s Escalating Tariff crusade

A fresh round of US tariffs singles out India with 27% duties, reigniting tensions and leaving negotiations adrift amid growing trade friction.

Basis View

April 3, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

India Keeps Fingers Crossed Ahead Of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

It's uncertain whether the tariffs would be implemented uniformly, applied separately to agricultural and industrial goods, or levied at a more granular level.

Basis View

April 1, 2025 at 10:53 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

Opinion

Delimitation: A Ticking Time Bomb That Can Test India’s Federal Fabric

No easy answers on delimitation—will India tackle it now or kick the can down the road, leaving our children to handle the political fallout?

Basis View

March 25, 2025 at 8:57 AM IST

A screengrab from television series "Panchayat"

SEBI's Social Media Deterrent Is A Start, More Needs To Be Done

Financial advertisers will now have to register with platforms like Google and Meta, but more is needed to curb mis-selling and fraud

Basis View

March 24, 2025 at 5:47 AM IST

Jimmy vikas/cc

Real Estate

Home Prices Soar, Rents Lag Showing Signs Of A Bubble In The Making

Capital values in key markets like Noida and MMR are skyrocketing, but rents aren’t keeping pace. Is real estate turning speculative again?

Basis View

March 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM IST

A Golden Blunder: The Costly Mistake Of Tackling India’s Gold Obsession

The sovereign gold bond scheme was meant to curb India's gold hunger. Instead, it has turned into a fiscal nightmare, with the government trapped in a gilded debt spiral.

Basis View

March 21, 2025 at 9:14 AM IST

iStock.com/D. Talukdar

Tentative Cut Likely Again; RBI May Prioritise Liquidity, Transmission

The RBI may cut rates again in April, but the focus will be on liquidity infusion and stronger pressure on banks to transmit cumulative cuts effectively.

Basis View

March 20, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

RBI

Opinion

MPC Must Abandon Neutrality To Reignite Growth Before It’s Too Late

With weakening growth and easing inflation, the RBI must abandon caution to spur investments and the economy.

Basis View

March 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Deposit Insurance Hikes – Stop The Panic-Driven Cycle

Repeated deposit insurance hikes after every bank failure create a moral hazard, weakening depositor scrutiny and responsible banking.

Basis View

March 4, 2025 at 4:19 AM IST

RBI Reverses Bank Lending Curbs On NBFCs in Swift Policy Shift

RBI rolls back NBFC lending curbs to ensure credit flow. This RBI-Bank-NBFC dance never stops.

Basis View

February 27, 2025 at 3:22 PM IST

Liquidity Boost Or Is it Strategic Play In RBI’s $10 Billion FX Swap

RBI’s largest and longest-ever FX swap aims to inject liquidity, but its broader implications for corporates, hedging costs, and reserves raise questions about whether it is merely a liquidity fix.

Basis View

February 26, 2025 at 8:10 AM IST

Tariffs, PILLS Act, And India’s Pharma Pivot

While US efforts to reshore drug production pose challenges, India’s pharmaceutical sector could transform regulatory headwinds into strategic advantages.

Basis View

February 25, 2025 at 6:26 AM IST

Minutes Show Growth Is MPC’s Clear Priority As Long As It Can Avoid Inflation Failure

Different definitions of real rates lead to different answers, which result in varied views on the potential room the MPC has to reduce the policy rate.

Basis View

February 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM IST

RBI Tweets

Gold Rush, Trade Gaps, And A Slowing Export Engine

India’s growing trade deficit signals deeper structural challenges as traditional exports struggle and demand for gold and silver surges.

Basis View

February 18, 2025 at 1:25 PM IST

Monetary Policy

New Governor Sees Small Space, Squeezes In Rate Cut

Malhotra may have steered the committee towards a cut more for solace than substance.

Basis View

February 10, 2025 at 3:40 AM IST

RBI

Sanjay Malhotra’s RBI Debut: Measured, Assured, And On-Record

First impressions of central bank governors matter, and Sanjay Malhotra may have struck well with the markets.

Basis View

February 10, 2025 at 3:31 AM IST

More Variables Are At Play As One Big Constant Leaves The Equation

A key constant exits, adding more variables to RBI’s rate-setting equation

Basis View

February 6, 2025 at 12:14 PM IST

RBI

Beyond Rate Cuts, RBI Can Still Propel Growth

Even if the RBI holds rates, it has plenty of tools to keep the economy moving.

Basis View

February 6, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

Why Arjuna’s Eye May Blink

The RBI may cut rates on Friday. Holding steady would be hard to defend.

Basis View

February 6, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

RBI’s Growth Forecast May Face A Downgrade, But Stable Inflation Offers Relief

The central bank is set to deliver a more sombre GDP growth forecast, while an unexpected set of events has made its inflation numbers more realistic.

Basis View

February 5, 2025 at 9:17 AM IST

Skewed Credit-To-Deposit Ratio And The Art Of Creating Money Out Of Thin Air

Indian banks have a high credit-to-deposit ratio, driven by strong loan growth and sluggish deposit mobilisation. RBI has tightened lending, but the core issue lies in how banks create money.

Basis View

February 5, 2025 at 5:34 AM IST

Budget Bets On Credibility By Preferring Fiscal Discipline Over Pump Priming

The budget prioritises fiscal credibility over GDP growth, banking on optimistic revenue estimates and middle-class consumption to drive demand.

Basis View

February 1, 2025 at 5:46 PM IST

BasisPoint Breaking Views Live During Budget 2025

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget 2025, several key announcements are shaping the government’s economic priorities. Our key insights, filed on the go while she speaks in Parliament, capture the first take on her policy and development moves.

Basis View

February 1, 2025 at 5:10 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

Sovereign Green Bonds - Red Signal On The Horizon?

Sovereign green bonds were meant to unlock cheaper capital, but the greenium has all but disappeared. With Trump’s return weakening global climate finance, a rethink on their viability is now imperative.

Basis View

January 31, 2025 at 2:41 PM IST

PSU Bank Privatisation: All Talk, No Action

Despite repeated budget announcements, the government has made little headway in privatising IDBI Bank or other public-sector financial institutions. Investors remain wary, and policy inertia has left critical decisions in limbo.

Basis View

January 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM IST

Small Savings, Big Problem – India Must Move On From This Costly Legacy

India’s small savings schemes distort financial markets and burden public finances, yet phasing them out poses political risks. A well-managed transition must be actioned.

Basis View

January 31, 2025 at 7:19 AM IST

Monetary Policy Can’t Take Up The Government’s Slack To Boost Economic Growth

The narrative of reforms in India over the past five years has largely remained just that—a narrative. September 2019 was the last when the central government undertook serious economic measure when it reduced corporate tax rates. Prior to that was the rollout of GST in July 2017. Economy now needs more than just past reforms.

Basis View

January 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

From Controlled Calm To Market Chaos, RBI’s Stability Bet For Rupee Unpegged

The rupee’s exchange rate narrative has flipped from ambitions of the internationalisation of the rupee to speculations of a quiet dollar peg under Shaktikanta Das.

Basis View

January 30, 2025 at 8:54 AM IST

RBI

Basis Shorts

October 14

IDBI Sale May Push Divestment Receipts Above Target

T-Bill Auction Reveals the Cost of Tighter Money

India’s Liquidity Surplus Faces Diwali Test as RBI FX Intervention Drains Funds

Rupee Defence Bets Push OIS Rates Higher, Flatten the Curve

Wholesale Inflation Seen Near 11.4%, Adding to Price Pressures

The Bureau

Indian Shares Fall as Oil Climbs, FPI Outflows Weigh On Sentiment

Govt Approves Fairfax’s ₹528.78 Billion bid for IDBI Bank

RBI Governor Says Ready to Act to Keep Rupee Orderly - Moneycontrol

PODCAST: Does Monetary Policy Need a New Paradigm with Abheek Barua

Does Monetary Policy Need a New Paradigm?

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh