India is not facing concerns over food availability or prices despite the risk of an El Niño weather pattern, but prolonged oil market disruptions amid geopolitical tensions highlight the economy's continued exposure to external shocks, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said at the Business Standard BFSI Summit 2026.

Gupta said India's agriculture sector has been growing at a steady 3-4% while undergoing significant transformation. India was also increasingly becoming a food exporter, reflecting improved capacity to manage food-related challenges.

She said the country was managing even the challenges posed by El Niño well, adding that agricultural performance had helped contain concerns over food availability and prices.

However, Gupta cautioned that India remained vulnerable to disruptions in fuel supplies and external financing, even as its resilience to several economic shocks had improved.

Gupta said she had earlier believed that India's reduced dependence on imported oil had lowered its exposure to oil-related shocks. However, the latest episode had persisted for several months and involved not just higher prices but also concerns about availability, she said.

"This time around, the oil shock has persisted for many months, and it's not just the price. Availability too was a challenge," she said.

Gupta said India had become more resilient to several economic shocks, but reducing its exposure to external risks would remain important for sustaining growth. While food-related challenges had become more manageable, fuel and external financing remained areas of vulnerability.

On the global outlook, Gupta said the economy remained resilient, although its capacity to absorb shocks had weakened. Energy security, the expansion of artificial intelligence, public debt, and borrowing costs were among the key risks facing the global economy.

The International Monetary Fund has continued to revise its global growth forecasts upwards and projected growth of around 3.1% in 2026, she said. However, growth gains were unevenly distributed across countries.

Investment in artificial intelligence was supporting economic activity in several advanced and emerging economies, while countries heavily dependent on imported oil were facing greater pressure.

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts could push global commodity prices higher, adding to policymakers' challenges, particularly in economies exposed to energy imports.

Gupta also noted that high inflation was tightening monetary policy globally. Fiscal policy could initially help cushion the impact of supply shocks, although persistent disruptions could complicate the broader economic response.

Gupta said India's growth momentum was continuing and its policy framework and implementation had improved.

However, she stressed the need to further reduce the economy's exposure to external vulnerabilities to sustain growth. The prolonged oil shock has underscored the risks of dependence on imported energy, especially when supply disruptions accompany price increases.

Gupta also pointed to a disconnect between corporate earnings and equity market movements, flagging a divergence between company performance and stock market trends.