India's Wheat Warning: Why the Government's Rabi Numbers May Be Wrong and What El Niño Could Do Next

India's government says wheat production will hit a record 120 million tonnes this Rabi season. Veteran commodity analyst G. Chandrashekhar disagrees — and says the real number could be closer to 106 to 108 million tonnes, a gap that has serious consequences for food prices, FCI procurement, and India's buffer stocks.

In this episode of BasisPoint Insight, Krishnadevan V sits down with Chandrashekhar to unpack what the second advance estimates really tell us, why rising temperatures in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh are a red flag, and why mustard output is being overstated just as much as wheat.

The conversation also takes in the geopolitical wildcard of a near-closed Strait of Hormuz, crude oil at close to $100 a barrel, and what that means for fertiliser costs and Rabi planting ahead. 

And then there is El Niño — not a phantom, says Chandrashekhar, but a developing threat that India must prepare for district by district, right now.

If you follow Indian agriculture, food inflation, or rural India's economy, this one is essential viewing.