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October 7, 2026 at 5:32 AM IST
Following are the highlights of monetary policy statement made by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra:
MPC voted to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50%
MPC decides change stance to calibrated tightening from neutral
Recalibrating the policy rate is an imperative
Policy action ahead can only be rate hike or pause.
Given the current conditions, rate cuts are off the table
Inflation
Core CPI inflation projected at 4.4% current financial year
CPI inflation expected to average almost 5.8% in next three quarters
Inflation outlook not benign as it was last year
Difficult to distinguish between second round effects and indirect impact of supply side pressures
Limited signs of supply side pressures getting embedded in pricing behaviour
Food price increases have become more broad based
Near-term outlook on inflation points towards continued pressures from supply side
Early signs of inflation becoming generalised
Growth, Inflation estimates
RBI revises FY27 GDP growth estimate to 7.1% from 6.7% earlier
RBI revises July-September GDP growth estimate to 7.2% from 6.4% earlier
RBI revises October-December GDP growth estimate to 6.9% from 6.5% earlier
RBI revises January-March growth estimate to 6.8% from 6.8% earlier
RBI forecasts April-June 2027 growth estimate at 7.1%
RBI revises FY27 CPI inflation estimate to 5.2% from 5.0% earlier
RBI revises July-September CPI inflation estimate to 4.9% from 4.7% earlier
RBI revises October-December CPI inflation estimate to 6.0% from 5.9% earlier
RBI revises January-March CPI inflation estimate to 5.7% from 5.5% earlier
RBI revises April-June 2027 CPI inflation estimate to 5.6% from 5.3% earlier
RBI revises FY27 Core CPI inflation estimate to 4.4% from 4.3% earlier
Indian Econ
Indian economy expected to remain resilient
Economic activity holding momentum with some moderation compared to preceding quarter
Manufacturing activity, despite pressure, is holding well
Service sector activity remains steady and broad based
Private consumption remained broadly resilient
Some weakness observed in non-durable goods and domestic air passenger traffic
Private consumption remains broadly resilient, supported by discretionary spending
Fixed investment remains strong, as evidenced by several indicators
Govt's infra spend, a rebound in private capex expected to bolster investment
Merchandise exports recorded double-digit growth in July and August
Services exports also recorded accelerated growth in July and August
Transmission in the credit market reflected dissimilar movements in deposit and lending rates.
Transmission in credit market reflected dissimilar movements
Credit growth continues to remain robust and broad based
To use appropriate mix of liquidity management tools
System level parameters of NBFCs are also sound
India's CAD remained modest despite headwinds
Banks, NBFCs system level financial parameters remain robust
CAD remained modest and well below sustainable levels in Q1
CAD widened in July due to higher merchandise trade deficit
Robust gross FDI reflects strong interest of global investors on India
BOP expected to record healthy surplus this year
Continue to implement policies that further add resilience, strength to economy
Financial markets
Remain committed to ensuring orderly adjustments to exchange rate
FPI recorded net outflows of $10.3 bln during FY27 through Oct 5
Remain committed to curbing excessive volatility in exchange rate
Foreign flows at $13.8 bln in first four months, higher than $8 bln in year-ago
Allowing interoperability amongst NBFC account aggregators
To constitute technical consultative committee for financial markets
Constituting committee for structured engagement on policy and financial matters
RBI Malhotra: MPC decided unanimously to hike repo rate by 25 bps
RBI: MPC voted change in stance to calibrated tightening by majority of 4-2
Global cues
Global inflation expected to rise
Re-escalation of West Asia conflict heightened financial market volatility
West Asia conflict pose significant downside risks to global econ output
Global economic uncertainty, supply chain disruptions to have some bearing on domestic economic
Global trade growth moderation, elevated energy prices, trade policy uncertainties pose upside risks to India's CAD
West Asia conflict, trade uncertainties, elevated bond yields keeping global economic sentiments edgy