Rising Reserves Need a Closer Reading

India’s headline reserves rose as estimated net usable reserves fell, making forward commitments central to assessing the intervention cushion.

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By V Thiagarajan

Venkat Thiagarajan is a currency market veteran.

November 2, 2026 at 4:09 AM IST

India’s official reserve assets rose from $668.6 billion in June 2026 to $737.8 billion in September. Over the same period, estimated net usable reserves, after adjusting foreign currency assets for forward and derivative commitments, declined from $439.3 billion to $369.1 billion. This divergence illustrates why a rising reserve total needs to be examined alongside the central bank’s foreign currency commitments.

The headline figure records the stock of official reserve assets. An assessment of the resources readily available for intervention also has to consider the foreign currency component and the commitments against it. As forward and derivative positions grow, changes in those commitments become increasingly important to interpreting movements in gross reserves.

Between June and September, forex assets increased from $542.6 billion to $608.3 billion. The net short forward position, including longer-term derivative commitments, increased from $103.3 billion to $239.2 billion. 

Deducting this position from foreign currency assets produces the estimate of net usable reserves, which moved lower even as both gross reserves and foreign currency assets rose.

The estimate focuses on foreign currency assets as the pool of readily available resources for intervention. Total official reserves also include gold, special drawing rights and the reserve position in the International Monetary Fund. The gross total and the adjusted foreign currency measure therefore address different aspects of the reserve position.

Reading Disclosures
These differences are visible in a disclosure that deserves a more regular place in reserve analysis.

The International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template sets out official reserve assets, foreign currency liabilities, predetermined and contingent short-term net drains, and related memorandum items. It provides a framework for examining the reserve stock alongside existing and potential calls on foreign currency resources.

The International Monetary Fund developed the template in March 1999 under its Special Data Dissemination Standard, drawing on lessons from the Asian financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of India began publishing it in 2001. Its purpose was to improve transparency around external reserve positions through a more detailed account of assets and foreign currency commitments.


Market participants typically rely on the RBI’s Weekly Statistical Supplement and Monthly Bulletin to assess reserve dynamics. 

The template has received comparatively limited analytical attention despite the detail it offers. Comparing successive releases can reveal changes in reserve assets, foreign currency liabilities and forward positions that deserve consideration alongside the movement in the headline number.

Forward Commitments
The increasing use of forwards and derivatives in reserve management makes that comparison more relevant. In an environment of elevated global uncertainty and active forward-market intervention, an assessment confined to changes in official reserve assets leaves part of the foreign currency position unexplained. The template’s short-term net-drain disclosures and memorandum items consequently assume greater analytical significance.

The June–September comparison shows the practical consequence. An increase in headline reserves can coexist with a decline in the estimated foreign currency cushion after commitments. Investors assessing reserve adequacy and external liquidity therefore need to examine both measures. Reading the gross increase as an equivalent improvement in resources available for intervention would overlook the change captured by the adjusted estimate.

The RBI’s continuous publication of the template since 2001 provides the basis for this assessment. The framework remains relevant as reserve-management instruments become more complex, allowing changes in assets to be considered alongside changes in exposures. Regular analysis across reporting periods can make these disclosures a more useful part of the assessment of India’s external position.

Reserve commentary should give this fuller picture a consistent place alongside the headline total. The figures from June to September demonstrate how differently gross reserves and estimated net usable reserves can evolve. Assessing the intervention cushion requires attention to the foreign currency assets available and the commitments against them, using the detail the RBI already publishes.