Akhilesh Yadav joined the INDIA bloc’s “Chalo Dilli” rally at Ramlila Maidan on November 1. The rally protested alleged electoral irregularities and demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. It also served as an early launch of the Samajwadi Party’s Uttar Pradesh campaign, with state elections due next year.

In his speech, Akhilesh described the maidan as the “Haldighati of democracy” and said the turnout showed that change was coming. He used the platform to send a message to Uttar Pradesh, raising allegations of vote theft and voter-list deletions. He predicted that the BJP would be defeated in the 2027 UP election, as it was in 2024, and by even bigger margins.

The confidence comes from the INDIA bloc’s performance in the Lok Sabha election. The SP-Congress alliance won 43 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats, up 37, causing a major upset for the NDA, which won 36, down 28. The SP moved beyond its MY formula and broadened its alliance through a PDA campaign.

The 2024 Numbers
In 2022, SP+ trailed BJP+ by 13.3 percentage points (34.7% versus 48.0%). In 2024, the gap was just 0.2 points in BJP+’s favour (43.5% versus 43.7%). SP+ gained a mammoth 8.8 points, roughly matching the losses of BJP+ (4.3 points), BSP (3.5 points) and others (1.0 point). Only about half of SP+’s gain came directly from BJP+; the other half came from the BSP’s collapse.

Adjusted: RLD and SBSP, which were part of SP+ in 2022, left the alliance and joined BJP+ after the election. The Congress, which contested separately in 2022, joined SP+ in 2024.

Seats moved more than votes did. SP+ led in 225 Assembly segments, up 112, while BJP+ led in 174, down 113. Almost every segment BJP+ lost went to SP+. SP+ won more segments despite trailing slightly in vote share, suggesting its gains were distributed efficiently across constituencies.

Where Votes Came From
The Dalit shift was the biggest factor. Jatav and non-Jatav Scheduled Caste voters together added about 4.4 percentage points, roughly half of SP+’s total gain. This suggests the PDA (Pichde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy was working. The Jatav shift from 10% to 25% was striking, since Jatavs were the BSP’s core base. The non-Jatav SC shift from 27% to 56% was the largest single swing in the table. Both were aided by the “Samvidhan khatre mein hai” campaign.

The presence of Congress softened the SP’s traditionally MY-focused coalition and helped make the transition of Dalit voters smoother.

Non-Yadav OBCs were the second driver. SP’s old weakness was its image as a “Yadav party”. Gaining 8 points among Other OBCs, a group with a 25% weight, and 5 points among Kurmis suggests that a broader OBC coalition was built. SP achieved this by limiting MY candidates to just 10 tickets and giving 27 tickets to non-Yadav OBC candidates, or 44% of its candidates.

Muslim consolidation, from 82% to 92%, added 1.8 points. It came mostly from the BSP and smaller parties, which Muslim voters abandoned in favour of the strongest anti-BJP option.

The Yadav vote was already near its ceiling at 84%, so it contributed little to SP+’s gain.

Upper-caste movement was an unexpected factor, possibly aided by the Congress alliance, lower turnout among Rajputs and Brahmins, and local factors. SP+’s support rose from 12% to 16%. That is a small shift, but with a 20% weight, it added 0.8 points. The reasons may include local candidate choices, anger over ticket distribution and BJP-specific disenchantment.

In short, SP+ won in 2024 by absorbing BSP votes, mainly Dalit and Muslim, while drawing non-Yadav OBCs away from BJP+. It did so without losing its Yadav base.

The 2027 Contest

In SP+’s favour

SP+ starts with a lead in 225 Assembly segments on the 2024 map. It needs 202 seats in the 403-member House, giving it a cushion of about 23.

The PDA coalition is now real, not just a slogan.

Opposition momentum has continued. In the October MLC polls, the ruling party won six seats to SP’s five. That suggests a narrowing gap in a limited electorate, rather than a decisive win for either side.

After 10 years of BJP rule, anti-incumbency and ticket-distribution troubles could work in SP+’s favour. SP claims BJP may have to replace candidates in nearly 225 constituencies, while internal reports suggest that as many as 125 tickets could be denied.

The national mood, CJP protests, youth discontent and the opposition’s “vote chori” campaign have put the BJP at the Centre on the back foot.

Against SP+
Lok Sabha and Assembly elections behave differently. SP+ won 34.7% of the vote in the 2022 Assembly election. Part of the 2024 swing was a referendum on national issues, including the Constitution and reservation. That may not be repeated in a state election in which Yogi Adityanath is the central figure and remains reasonably popular.

Several 2024 gains look hard to hold. Muslim support at 92% has little room to grow, while AIMIM could threaten to split votes, as it did in Bihar. Non-Jatav SC support at 56% is a high-water mark that could recede as BJP+ rebuilds through targeted outreach and beneficiary mobilisation. The “Samvidhan khatre mein hai” narrative has lost momentum. BJP+ is running grassroots training camps and reshuffling leadership to win back OBC and Dalit communities.

A BSP revival would hurt SP+ most. Even a limited revival could split anti-BJP votes in key constituencies. Since the Jatav and non-Jatav SC gains came directly from the BSP, any return of Dalit voters to the party would cut into SP+’s totals.

The national mood has shifted towards BJP+. Its wins in Bihar and then West Bengal have changed the political mood and raised the stakes for Akhilesh.

Alliance friction is another risk. Congress has reportedly asked for 172 seats, with talks stuck over western UP. A split or poorly managed seat-sharing deal could cost SP+ many close seats.

The Bottom Line
SP+’s 2024 win rested on three things: absorbing the BSP’s Dalit vote, broadening beyond Yadavs and consolidating Muslim support. All three reflected a specific moment, and each could be reversed. SP+ starts 2027 ahead on the map, but it must prove that it can retain these voters in a state election and manage its alliance with Congress.