It is easy to write off the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. It has one MLA, no MPs and a vote share that has fallen to single digits. Yet in a state where elections are often decided by a few thousand votes, a party’s size matters less than where its votes fall. By that test, Mayawati’s BSP could still shape who wins and who loses in UP.

The Peak and the Slide
Mayawati has been Chief Minister four times. Her high point was 2007, when the BSP won 206 of 403 seats on its own. It took an absolute majority with a 30.43% vote share. 

The decline since then has been steady:

• 2012: The seat count fell to 80, with a 25.91% vote share.

• 2014: The party won no Lok Sabha seats, but still mustered a decent 19.77% vote share. 

• 2017: It won 19 seats with around 22% of the vote. 

• 2022: It won one seat with a 12.88% vote share. 

• 2024: It again won no seats, and its vote share fell to 9.39% 

The 2014 result is the key to the story. The BSP won no seats, but its 20 % vote share meant it still split the opposition vote in many constituencies.

What the BSP’s Leftover Votes did in 2017 and 2022
BSP recorded 22% vote share in 2022 and recorded higher vote share than margin of victory in 280 seats. In 232 seats, around 80% it damaged the SP, in 20% the BJP, giving a net gain of 186 seats to the BJP, resulting in NDA bagging 325 seats and forming government after 20 years.

In 2017, BSP’s vote share fell to 13 percent, even at this level, the BSP’s votes exceeded the winning margin in about 242 seats (60% of total strength). In 144 of those seats it hurt the SP (60%), and in 97 it hurt the BJP (40%). The net effect was 47 seats in the BJP’s favour, reducing its tally to 275 in 2022. 

In the 2024 general elections, BSP’s vote share fell to single digits around 9%, however it received more than margin of victory votes in 46/80 seats. Here the tables turned and it damaged the BJP more than SP, resulting in a net gain of 24 seats to the SP-Congress alliance. 

The 2024 contest was essentially two-sided, between the NDA and the INDIA bloc. The BSP is now trying to change that. Mayawati has said the party will go it alone in 2027, and has reiterated that it will contest the election without any coalition. Party insiders say she believes a three-cornered fight with the BJP and the SP could improve the BSP’s prospects. 

Two things make her a kingmaker even from a weak position:

1. Margins are thin. In 109 assembly segments, the margin of victory was less than 10,000 votes, INDIA bloc was leading in 59 and NDA in 50 such seats. 

2. The core vote is loyal. BSP’s remaining 9 percent is an ideological vote consisting of Dalits who owe loyalty to Kanshi Ram - Mayawati. A voter base that does not move with the tide can decide close seats. 

The Question for 2027
The 2022 and 2024 results show the BSP’s decline has pushed UP towards a straight fight between the BJP and the SP led alliances. However the marginal vote share it still receives decides the fortunes of close to 60% of the seats. The trend shows it damages both the BJP and the SP, more SP in 2017 and 2022, more BJP in 2024. A BSP revival, even a small one, can jeopardize the strategies of both parties. How much she can win back will decide how large her influence is.

The BSP may not form the next government or even win many seats. But in a state this closely fought, the party with 9 to 13 percent of the vote can still decide who does.