Highlights of Comments by MPC Members at October 5-7 Policy Meeting

October 21, 2026 at 12:12 PM IST

Following are the highlights of comments by members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee at their October 5-7 policy review:

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra

- Inflationary pressures are building up.

- Increasing signs of generalisation of inflation.

- Underlying inflation, excluding precious metals, is anticipated to move above target in coming months.

- Data indicate normalisation of inflation from previously benign levels.

- Difficult to distinguish between second-round effects and the indirect impact of supply-side pressures.

- Monetary policy primarily acts by curtailing second-round effects of a supply shock.

- Risks of demand-side pressures need to be assessed in view of growth in monetary and credit aggregates.

- Change in stance signals that future policy action can only be a rate hike or a pause.

- Duration and extent of the rate-hike cycle will depend on growth-inflation developments.

Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta

- Inflation is primarily driven by external supply-side shocks, particularly food, fuel and gold.

- Inflation has seen limited generalisation to core inflation, with insignificant signs of inflation becoming entrenched.

- Inflation may reach the upper tolerance limit of 6%.

- Inflationary pressures are mounting globally amid the West Asia conflict and elevated oil prices.

- Weather-related adversities may add to inflationary pressures.

- A larger pass-through of input costs may materialise.

- A further rate increase might be needed to keep inflation low.

- Inflation diffusion and second-round effects will guide rate action.

- The pace and extent of rate action will depend on incoming data.

- High funding demand in advanced economies may push global interest rates higher.

Saugata Bhattacharya

- Some upside risks to inflation have started materialising.

- Energy prices have risen, while data suggest price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economic system.

- India's external balance remains a concern amid vulnerabilities in the balance of payments and tighter global financial conditions.

- Maintaining a certain gap between India's and G7 interest rates is important.

- Domestic financial conditions have tightened significantly, mitigating the need for large policy actions.

Ram Singh

- Inflation has generalised beyond the direct effects of fuel and commodity prices.

- Firms are passing higher input costs on to prices of goods and services.

- Projected inflation could render the real repo rate negative.

- A calibrated increase in the repo rate is needed.

- There is a case for incremental, mild repo rate hikes rather than keeping rates high for a prolonged period.

- Classic signs of economic overheating are largely absent.

- Growth is expected to moderate in coming quarters.

- Significant rate hikes could hurt firms' profit margins and capital expenditure plans.

Nagesh Kumar

- A neutral policy stance remains appropriate amid continued uncertainty.

- FCNR(B) inflows will help stabilise the rupee.

- The India-EU free trade agreement could boost labour-intensive exports from early 2027.

Indranil Bhattacharyya

- Time to set aside the “cautiousness bias” in monetary policy.

- Better to act pre-emptively on inflation than wait and watch.

- Supply- and demand-side factors could significantly raise inflation pressures ahead.

- Crude and food price pressures are unlikely to ease quickly.

- Evidence of input-cost pass-through is increasing in restaurants and cooked meals.

- Further input-cost pass-through is likely as demand remains strong.

- Underlying inflation momentum remains high.

- Core inflation also shows signs of broadening price pressures, though to a lesser extent.

- Inflation expectations are significantly higher in both urban and rural areas.

- Rate cuts are not an option in the near term.

- Calibrated tightening signals that the near-term policy choice is between rate hikes and a pause.

- India's FY27 GDP growth is seen above 7%.

- The shift to a calibrated-tightening stance reaffirms the RBI's commitment to price stability.