Is AI in Inflation? Should Central Banks Care?

Global economies are quantifying AI’s effect on inflation, and whether the current inflationary phase will give way to productivity gains.

Michael Debabrata Patra

iStock.com

India’s Next Reform Must Limit the State’s Discretion

Macroeconomic resilience creates room for reform. Confidence requires clear rules, independent choices and equal protection.

Basis View

What the MLC Polls Tell Us, and What They Mean for 2027

A verdict of the state polls they are not, but parties need to read the writing on the wall as they head to state elections next year

Amitabh Tiwari

Tough Battle Ahead for BJP in Uttar Pradesh

The BJP’s performance in UP’s legislative council polls raises questions about middle-class support and the political significance of the Opposition’s gains.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Can Bond Vigilantes Prevent the Next Debt Crisis?

With interest rates on government debt having gone from near zero to much higher levels in recent years, rising short- and long-term bond yields have cast doubt on the sustainability of some debts and led many to wonder if a crisis might be looming. While some countries are more protected than others, none is immune.

Nouriel Roubini

The Superficially Intuitive Case Against Capital Gains Tax

Blaming capital gains tax for FII selling is easy. But if the levy disappears, who replaces the revenue, and would foreign investors really come back?

Vivek Kaul

RBI’s FX Strategy: Mounting Costs of Rupee Defence Amid a False Calm

The RBI has calmed the spot rupee, but surging forward premia, thinner liquidity and a growing forward book show the rising cost of engineering currency stability.

Madhavi Arora

Columnists

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Ashima Goyal

Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Abheek Barua

Abheek Barua is the former Chief Economist of HDFC Bank. He teaches at Ashoka University.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Sharmila Kantha

Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Basis Shorts

October 30

Patna’s 9.20% Is the Highest Municipal Coupon in Seven Years

Persistent’s ₹76 Billion Bond Dwarfs Every Software Issue Since 2022

October 29

The Jobs Women Cannot Reach

Gilts Catch a Breather, but for How Long?

Rupee Gets RBI Cover; Forward Market Gets the Bill

Warsh Gives Fed Strategy Its Own Meeting

The Bureau

Bank Credit to Services Sector Surges 28.3% on Year in September

India Services Export Growth Slows to 7.2% on year in September

Indian Shares Rebound, Rupee Posts Biggest Monthly Gain in Eight Months

Finance Ministry Sees India July-September GDP Growth at 7.35%

Fed Holds Rates; Warsh Plans Fewer Rate-Setting Meetings

India's Energy Transition: The Hard Part is Yet to Come

FPIs Using Mauritius Face a Harder Tax Calculation in India

Funds investing through Mauritius face closer scrutiny of their treaty claims, making predictable tax treatment more important to their next Indian allocation.

Sangeeta Jain

Krishnadevan V

Is Washington Trying to Inflate Away Its Debt?

Tariffs, fiscal expansion, low real rates and pressure on the Fed raise a provocative question: is inflation becoming part of Washington’s answer to its debt burden?

Sanjay Mansabdar

The Risk of One Shock Too Many

Successive shocks have eroded household, corporate and fiscal buffers, raising the risk that the next disruption could trigger far greater economic and financial stress.

Rahul Ghosh

The Rupee in the Age of Digital Dollarisation

India must address the domestic weaknesses undermining its currency while building guardrails against a new source of dollar dependence: digital money.

Arvind Mayaram

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Forces That Set Exchange Rates and the Regimes of the Rupee

Michael Patra explains the underlying principles of exchange rates, how they shape the economy, and how the rupee has undergone regime shifts.

Michael Debabrata Patra

An Erratic El Niño Exacerbates Food Insecurity, Displacement Fears

Poor rainfall across multiple crop-producing regions is likely to increase the risk of lower yields, tighter food supplies, and higher price volatility

Amir Shaikh

RBI’s Hawkish Turn: What the MPC Minutes Reveal

The October MPC minutes reveal a decisive hawkish shift, but divisions over the policy stance show that agreement on a rate hike does not guarantee consensus on further tightening

Rudra Sensarma

Is India's Coal Crunch a Supply Shock or Demand Surge?

The country needs to manage not just the current shortage, but also prepare the power sector to meet future demand

Ritesh Kumar Singh

The Anchor of Memory: Why October 27 Must Remain the Bedrock of India’s National Security Consciousness

Peace Must Not Erase Memory: It is a reminder of the sacrifice, resistance and choices that shaped India’s security in J&K.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Pricing The Habit

The Jio IPO and the bill for a decade of cheap data.

Minari Shah

All That Stock Research May Be Answering the Wrong Investment Question

Research can make investors better informed about a stock, and yet not answer the question whether their money belongs somewhere else.

Krishnadevan V

A Hub That Moves Billions, but Falls Short on Living Amenities

GIFT City was meant to be India's answer to Singapore and Dubai. In April-June, its banks held over $120 billion in assets, but fewer than 25,000 people work there

Ganga Narayan Rath and Chirayu Sharma

Why South India Wants More Babies

South India’s falling fertility is reshaping its age profile and future workforce, pushing states to rethink population policy even as reversing the trend remains difficult.

Deepa Vasudevan

Optimising Capital Efficiency Through Better Risk Management

As new capital rules raise the cost of risk, banks will need to align growth, pricing and balance-sheet strategy more closely with the capital each business consumes

K. Srinivasa Rao

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency data showed that private sector in India continued to rebound from the lows in July and August.

Datametricx

MPC Minutes

The RBI’s Diagnosis is Stronger Than Its Policy Signal

The RBI sees inflation spreading, yet its leaders sound tentative about the tightening needed to reach 4%, even as growth gives them room to act.

Basis View

AI FOMO Is Creating A Cyber Blindspot

AI is accelerating corporate ambition and cyber risk. Financial institutions are digitising faster than their governance can understand the vulnerabilities emerging around them.

Srinath Sridharan

Resilience or Belief? Reading the IMF's Outlook Through a Behavioural Lens

The IMF's October World Economic Outlook is read for its numbers. Read again, it is also a record of how traders, households, forecasters and governments behave when nobody knows what comes next

B Sharathbabu

M S Ramaratnam

RBI’s Loan Pricing Draft Still Leaves Hard Questions Over Fairness

India’s retail loan pricing needs more than transparency. Usury, business strategy premiums and risk-based pricing raise deeper questions about fairness and access to affordable credit.

Deepti George

From Chips to Capital: India’s Unfinished Business of Ownership

From semiconductors and patents to healthcare, startups and the rupee, India’s challenge is turning talent, investment and growth into lasting economic value.

Phynix

AI Risks In The BFSI Sector And Regulatory Policy In India

AI risks often focus on algorithmic errors, bias, or cybersecurity threats but few look at concentration risk for advanced AI models

Lalitagauri Kulkarni

Arjun Goyal

Beyond Rupee Defence: Building a Resilience Dashboard

India needs to look beyond exchange rates and reserves to assess external resilience, tracking whether growth strengthens foreign exchange earnings, reduces vulnerabilities and improves the capacity to absorb shocks.

Anupam Sonal

Rising Yields Signal Dislocation, Not the Market Doing the RBI’s Work

Surging bond yields signal dislocation amid policy uncertainty. Investors may find value, but traders face rallies vulnerable to renewed selling

Yield Scribe

The Missing Patient Benefit in India’s Hospital Boom

India’s hospital boom is lifting revenue and attracting private capital, but transparent bills, clinical outcomes and affordability will reveal whether patients benefit.

Krishnadevan V

Infrastructure

The Mumbai Airport Shuffle: MIAL vs the Airlines, or a Question of Authority?

Mumbai’s T1 redevelopment has exposed a bigger governance question: can an airport operator redistribute scarce slots, or must a regulated process decide who bears the loss?

Sharmila Chavaly

IRDAI’s Consultation Paper Has the Right Intent but Half the Cure

The regulator’s goals on coverage and affordability are sound, but capping commissions treats only a symptom. Inverting how commission is paid can target the cause.

Alpana Killawala

Opinion

An India-Based Engineer, Seychelles and a Global Patent

Multinationals are naming Indian engineers as patent applicants for a country none of them may plan to enter. The structure is legal. What it reveals about how India prices a public service is the real question.

Nilanshu Shekhar

Briefing

Why YES Bank’s AT-1 Bond Write-Off Failed and What It Means for Investors

YES Bank’s AT-1 case explains why the write-off was overturned, where selling rules fall short and how investors can seek redress.

Babuji K

Basis Life

Sarci-Sense: We Are All Vain, We Just Call It Something Else

Vanity has always shaped how we see ourselves and others. Today, technology, advertising and changing cultural codes have made our obsession with appearance harder to recognise.

Srinath Sridharan

Basis Life

Can We Disagree Without Becoming Enemies?

We spend so much time preparing our own arguments that we forget to prepare for a conversation in which the other person can actually hear us.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Basis Life

The Ovarian Lottery: Aiming and Managing

How much of parenting is about preparing children for the world, and how much is about learning to let go when they begin choosing a life of their own?

Kalyani Srinath

Opinion

AI Eats Strategy and RBI Reserves for Breakfast

AI is weakening the forex economics of India’s services engine, while RBI reserves and FCNR liabilities buy time for a difficult external-sector transition.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

India Can Grow at 7% — But Reforms Must Go Deeper

Rakesh Khar

Does Monetary Policy Need a New Paradigm?

Kalyan Ram

Abheek Barua

Is the RBI Behind the Curve?

Gaura Sen Gupta

Dhiraj Nim

IRDAI for Cap on Commissions, Single Distribution Entity, More Disclosure: Who Gains, Who Loses?

Rajesh Mahapatra

Srinath Sridharan

The RBI Has an Information Advantage; it is not in any Panic

The RBI’s information advantage helps explain its pre-emptive rupee measures and their role in preserving orderly market functioning.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The End of Abundance

The decades ahead will be shaped by a contest for natural resources, making the world more prone to stagflation and handing the levers of policy back to governments.

V. Anantha Nageswaran

The Chinese Underwater Threat

Is the Indian Navy equipped to have an undersea edge against China?

Prakash Nanda

Snabbit’s Cash Burn Is No Surprise in India’s Startup Wars

From e-commerce and ride-hailing to instant domestic help, India’s consumer startups have long bought growth with investor money. Snabbit is following a familiar playbook.

Pradip K. Saha

Nirmala Sitharaman, Retail Investors and the Great Indian Wealth Transfer

Are India’s retail investors powering a great wealth transfer, giving FIIs and promoters an easy exit at rich valuations while also adding pressure on the rupee?

Vivek Kaul

Geopolitics

Pakistan's Strategic Paradox: Global Ambition, Domestic Fragility

Pakistan’s diplomatic profile is rising even as economic strain, provincial tensions and conflict with Afghanistan expose the limits of its domestic resilience.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Corporate India Needs Buyers, Not Just Tax Breaks

Tax breaks and stronger balance sheets have not delivered a broad private capex revival. Weak demand still limits the case for adding capacity.

Dhananjay Sinha

Restoring Monetary Balance: The Case for Calibrated Tightening

October policy action reflects a forward-looking response to widening inflation, unfinished cost pass-through and a narrowing real-rate cushion.

Sparsh Chhabra

Banking's AI Revolution Still Needs Human Judgement

AI is transforming lending, fraud detection and central-bank supervision, but its efficiency gains must be matched by accountability, transparency and resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Kitchen and the Dealing Room: Two Inflation Realities in India

Households see inflation through food and fuel; bond dealers watch data and policy. The RBI must understand both readings without mistaking either for the whole picture

B Sharathbabu

M S Ramaratnam

Flexible Jobs Could Help More Indian Women Join India’s Workforce

Research from Kolkata shows how home-based work and childcare flexibility can boost women’s employment, challenge traditional gender norms and reshape workplace policy.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

The Bargaining Power Rural India Is Losing

Rural India may be less exposed to weak monsoons, but stagnant wages and a narrower job guarantee are eroding the bargaining power that once protected workers.

Arvind Mayaram

IDBI Bank Sale: Public Ownership Must Serve a Purpose

The IDBI Bank sale revives a larger question: when does public ownership serve a clear purpose, and when can regulation protect the public interest more effectively?

Nilanjan Banik

India’s Record Remittances: A Warning, Not Just a Financial Windfall

Remittances surged during the West Asia conflict, cushioning India’s current account. But the inflow may mask Gulf job losses and a dangerous data gap

Sagari Gupta

RBI’s Liquidity Lever Could Deliver More Tightening Without a Sharp Repo Hike

As surplus liquidity drains, SBI Research sees scope for an interim MSF rate hike to tighten funding conditions before a December repo-rate increase.

Richard Fargose

Yes Bank’s Rescue Did Not Give Its Administrator a Free Hand

A-1 bonds can absorb losses. But a rescue does not give an administrator the authority to impose them.

Chandrika Soyantar

Opinion

How the SIR Row Could Work in the BJP’s Favour

The BJP could turn anger over voter exclusions into a contest over identity, leaving the Opposition battling to keep the focus on accountability.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Delimitation Is Back in Focus: Can the BJP Get It Through This Time?

The BJP wants to revive delimitation after its April defeat. But balancing equal representation with southern states’ concerns will require more than parliamentary arithmetic.

Amitabh Tiwari

Make the Chips, Own the Recipe

India and Taiwan entered semiconductors within three years of each other, but only one built a road from the laboratory to the stock exchange.

Chandrika Soyantar

The RBI’s Familiar Dilemma Returns as Its Liquidity Cushion Wears Thin

The RBI’s dollar inflow measures bought some relief, but rising oil prices and a shrinking cash surplus along with rising bond yields are reviving difficult policy trade-offs

Yashveer Singh

India’s Drug Pricing Dilemma: Can It Protect Patients and Innovate?

India must make medicines affordable without undermining pharmaceutical innovation. A fragmented pricing regime leaves patients exposed and the industry uncertain about its future

Rakesh Khar

SC Blames RBI, Govt for Slip-up, But Who Pays for YES Bank AT-1 Verdict

The court ruling revives bondholders’ claims, but any resulting cost will fall on a bank whose ownership has changed since its 2020 rescue.

Anil Katia

The Rupee Hired Bodyguards, and Someone Else Is Paying Overtime

As the RBI defends the rupee and India pursues its growth ambitions, a common question runs through markets, bank rescues and quick commerce: who ultimately pays for the fixes?

Phynix

Five Global Shocks to Watch in 2027

With a little over two months to go before the year ends, the question on most minds is: what will 2027 bring? My reading of the tea leaves points to five financial and geopolitical shocks that could shape the new year.

R. Sridharan

Basis Life

Sarci Sense: When Did We Stop Being Easily Delighted?

We have more information, more choices and more access than any generation before us. Yet somewhere between knowing everything and getting everything, we seem to have misplaced the innocence that once made ordinary life feel extraordinary.

Srinath Sridharan

Basis Life

Why is Silence so (in)convenient?

Some moments linger long after they pass, leaving us to wonder about what might have been. In a world of instant connection, why does reaching out remain so difficult?

Kalyani Srinath

Basis Life

What Swades Still Asks of Us

Swades was never only about coming home. Two decades later, its harder question endures: what does patriotism demand once pride gives way to responsibility?

Nashit Sekhani

Does RBI Need to Mount an Interest Rate Defence of Rupee, Again?

Forward foreign exchange market implied interest rates are already at punitive levels, curbing the need for an MSF hike to tackle rupee speculation; MPC could consider a 50 bps hike in December meeting to ensure real policy rates do not turn negative as inflation picks up to close to 6%

Abhishek Upadhyay

RBI’s FX Moves

Beyond Rupee Defence: Building India’s External Economic Resilience

India cannot build lasting rupee resilience through intervention alone. Stronger export earnings and lower foreign exchange dependence are essential.

Anupam Sonal

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Wholesale and retail inflation continued to accelerate as the war in West Asia pushed up prices, raising concerns about the inflation outlook.

Datametricx

YES Bank AT-1 Bondholders’ Victory Leaves the Recovery Question Open

The Supreme Court has revived Yes Bank AT1 bondholders’ claims, but the ruling stops short of guaranteeing repayment, leaving coupons, valuation and enforcement unresolved.

Rahul Ghosh

Bonds Were Never an All-Weather Hedge

Stocks and bonds do not always offset each other. Inflation, growth and monetary policy determine whether diversification delivers its promise.

V Thiagarajan

Gold Buyers Aren’t Panicking. Sellers May Be

Gold prices fell as yields rose, yet ETFs attracted record inflows. Fiscal and geopolitical risks are changing how investors value the metal beyond interest rates

Atul Prakash

Part 2

India's Growth Rebalancing: A Patchwork of Crisis Responses, Not a Strategy

India’s growth push has relied on tax cuts, subsidies, capex and trade deals, but the measures look more like crisis responses than a sequenced strategy.

Arvind Mayaram

India’s Chemical Ambitions Need Cheaper Feedstocks, Not Just Tariff Walls

India’s chemical industry needs more than import protection. Competitively priced feedstocks, sensible tariffs and reliable supplies are essential to move up the value chain

Ritesh Kumar Singh

RBI’s FX Moves

The RBI’s Explanation Should Not Follow the Confusion

A useful interview cannot substitute for timely explanations. The RBI needs written clarity on its decisions, not after markets start guessing.

Kalyan Ram

Masterclass with Michael Patra

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

Michael Patra explains how exchange rate regimes shape monetary policy independence and why global forces constrain domestic policy choices

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Rupee Needs Resolve, Not Reprimands

The RBI can make betting against the rupee harder. Restoring confidence requires firmer monetary policy, not a verdict on markets’ rationality.

Kalyan Ram

RBI’s FX Moves

What Else Is the Rupee Defending?

India’s GDP ambitions carry a political timetable. Rupee depreciation adds to the risk of pushing that timetable back.

Basis View

Briefing

Why the RBI Followed a Rate Hike with a Crackdown

The chronology suggests the rupee’s post-policy fall turned an old concern about dollar positioning into a crackdown on importers and banks.

BasisPoint Insight

SEBI’s Auction Rethink Shows Why One Price Cannot Serve Every Purpose

SEBI’s closing auction may improve price discovery, but that does not automatically make the same price the best benchmark for derivatives settlement.

Basis View

Is Quick Commerce Making FMCG Brands Pay for Their Own Customers

Quick commerce is boosting FMCG sales, but brands risk paying platforms to reach existing customers without adding meaningful growth or profit.

Krishnadevan V

A Divided US Congress Won’t Shield India From Trump’s Tariffs

A Democratic House may constrain Trump procedurally, but tariffs and dollar strength will persist. India’s gains will depend on its ability to compete for investment

Nilanjan Banik

Absorbing a Fertiliser Shock Is Not the Same as Budgeting for It

India has absorbed a fertiliser shock while keeping its deficit goal in reach. Now its subsidy budget must recognise risk before the next crisis.

B Sharathbabu

M S Ramaratnam

Fickle FPIs are punching above their weight for now; MFs below

Mutual fund buying has outgunned FPI selling by a factor of over 5x even as markets continue to tank. The relationship isn't entirely cut and dry, though

Ujval Nanavati

As Long as Retail Investors Stay in La-La Land, It’s Always Summer for OPM Wallahs

Why are retail investors pouring money into select funds at stretched valuations, and why are fund managers so silent about the risks investors are taking in pursuit of returns?

Vivek Kaul