Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura Sen Gupta, a D-School alumna, is the Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Producer Price Index to Sharpen India’s Inflation, GDP Data

India’s shift from WPI to PPI will sharpen inflation data, improve GDP deflation and align official statistics more closely with global norms.

Gaura Sen Gupta

June 18, 2026 at 4:08 AM IST

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RBI Dividend: The Lifeline for the Centre and Markets

RBI’s record dividend will ease liquidity for now, but cash leakage and dollar sales mean durable OMO purchases may need to resume later in 2026-27.

Gaura Sen Gupta

May 23, 2026 at 12:30 PM IST

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State Finance: A Growing Challenge for the Debt Market

Rising state deficits, slowing revenues and falling grants are driving higher bond supply, intensifying competition for funds and complicating policy trade-offs

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 24, 2026 at 12:09 PM IST

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Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock

Monetary Policy

With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs.

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 9, 2026 at 11:18 AM IST

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RBI’s FX Strategy Shifts as Oil Shock Tests External Stability

A prolonged West Asia shock may widen external deficits and strain capital flows, forcing the RBI to prioritise FX reserve preservation over currency defence

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 25, 2026 at 2:02 PM IST

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West Asia Shock Tests RBI’s Growth-First Playbook

A dual oil supply and price shock may lift inflation and strain growth, forcing the RBI to rely on liquidity and signalling to keep conditions supportive.

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 18, 2026 at 5:47 AM IST

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Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum

MPC Review

RBI’s record liquidity infusion in 2025-26 has failed to ease conditions as dollar sales, cash leakage and fiscal hoarding drain surplus.

Gaura Sen Gupta

February 5, 2026 at 6:09 AM IST

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