BasisPoint Groupthink

Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

Above and Beyond Duty

Current macroeconomic stress may mute criticism over the disproportionate increase in cess relative to customs duty in the latest hike in import taxes on gold and silver.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 13, 2026 at 9:27 AM IST

stock/Andy

Congress Finds an Opening as Rivals Fade, but Time is Running Out

Congress faces a narrower but clearer path as rivals fade, but without vision and organisational reset, the opening may yet strengthen the BJP’s dominance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 5, 2026 at 8:28 AM IST

inc.in/

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI’s Currency Curbs Leave Markets Nursing More Than Losses

Forced FX unwinds have imposed losses, but the deeper impact is behavioural. Markets may turn cautious amid concerns about risk, liquidity, and RBI initiatives.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

When Neat Policy Theory Meets a Messier Reality

MPC Minutes

The RBI’s April minutes show a textbook response to a supply shock, but the Iran conflict is testing the limits of clean policy rules.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

Risk Signals, Not Reassurance from RBI’s GDP, CPI Projections

Monetary Policy

RBI’s latest projections acknowledge a harder macro trade-off, with external shocks reviving inflation risks and forcing policy into a more conditional, risk-managed stance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

iStock.com

War Breaks the Policy Cycle

Monetary Policy

The April MPC ends the disinflation-led easing phase, pushing the RBI into a supply-shock regime where inflation risks rise even as growth weakens.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI Faces a Real Interrogation as Markets Probe Its Playbook

Monetary Policy

In a multi-shock setting, the question is no longer about reassurance, but whether the reaction function holds

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM IST

Stop Calling It a Favour

Fuel price stability is not a favour from the state. It is paid for by taxpayers and balance sheets, and presenting it otherwise distorts accountability.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 27, 2026 at 7:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Shock Rules, Not Shock Responses

Lagarde’s three principles recast shock response as risk management. For the RBI, the task shifts to containing spillovers, not just inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 26, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

When Neutrality Becomes Silence

Geopolitics

As wars increasingly become theatres for technological display, rising powers such as India may need to move beyond strategic autonomy and articulate the principles that should still govern the use of force.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 7, 2026 at 12:31 PM IST

iStock.com

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 26, 2026 at 3:38 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

MPC Review

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India–US Trade Deal, the EU Trigger and the Limits of Celebration

The India–US trade deal offers tariff relief, not a clear win. India has conceded ground, gained breathing space, and must now wait for the fine print to determine the balance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 3, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

White House

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

Monetary Policy

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

Monetary Policy

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

The Bureau

Benchmarks Recover Late Losses Despite Rupee Weakness

RBI Announces $5 Billion Swap To Inject Liquidity

Bank Indonesia Hikes Benchmark Rate by 50 bps Amid Currency Pressure

Fuel Prices Raised Again by 90 Paise/Litre Amid Higher Global Crude Costs

RBI Discontinues Investment Fluctuation Reserve Requirement for Banks

India’s Silver Import Curbs Aim to Plug UAE Duty Arbitrage

India Trade Deficit Widens in April, Drags Rupee to Record Low

Deficient Monsoon, Iran War: A Double Shock to India’s Rural Economy

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk