BasisPoint Groupthink

Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

The GDP Debate India Should Welcome and Sustain

The argument over India’s growth numbers is healthy because it has shifted attention from identity politics to jobs, investment and policy.

September 4, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Warsh’s Quiet Fed Shifts Uncertainty to Markets

Jackson Hole made the case for greater Fed discretion. The price is a less visible reaction function and more uncertainty for markets.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 1, 2026 at 3:20 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

India’s $73 Billion Forex Buffer is Insurance, Not Triumph

Concessional swaps can buy valuable protection, but dressing liability-funded reserves as proof of economic strength risks eroding credibility.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 25, 2026 at 7:36 AM IST

Finance Ministry

CEA Nageswaran Is Tempering His Obligatory Optimism

By questioning ethanol, AI, private capex, market exuberance, and external resilience, V Anantha Nageswaran is restoring constructive doubt to policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 18, 2026 at 1:39 PM IST

RBI Should Close the Door on Easing with a Stance Change

Monetary Policy

The August policy need not deliver a hike. It should deliver recognition that India should not meet a harder monetary world with an easing bias left ajar.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 3, 2026 at 3:59 AM IST

The Market Is Pricing the RBI, Not Inflation

June CPI rose, yet rate-hike calls faded. The market is pricing the RBI’s growth bias—not inflation—and echoing the central bank back to itself.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 15, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

istock.com

Mind the New Numbers

India is changing how it measures growth and prices. Bond and currency markets should pay attention

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 13, 2026 at 6:44 AM IST

istock.com

No Victory Lap on a Smouldering Truce

Fresh US strikes on Iran show that the ceasefire is at best an interval in a wider conflict; India must stay alert, not relieved.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 8, 2026 at 6:56 AM IST

istock.com

Malhotra’s Message to Markets: No Case Yet for Rate Hikes

RBI is declining to act before inflation becomes visible, broad-based and persistent. It doesn’t want markets to brace for a tightening cycle yet.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 24, 2026 at 1:33 PM IST

Trump’s Iran Deal: This Is What Cutting Losses Looks Like

The agreement is neither victory nor surrender. It is Washington’s recognition that a costly war had stopped serving American interests and that even Israel cannot dictate the limits of US strategy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 19, 2026 at 8:57 AM IST

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 18, 2026 at 3:56 AM IST

US Fed

Not Every Oil Shock or Sharp Currency Move is 1991

Oil shocks always warrant vigilance, but this time around India’s external buffers, services export strength, and improved policy framework make 1991 analogies more distracting than useful.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 16, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Cannot Afford to Look Through This Shock

The RBI's own forecasts suggest it cannot ignore energy and food shocks. Rising core inflation may require rates to move back towards 6%.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 8, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Defends the Framework, Not the Rupee

Monetary Policy

The RBI chose capital-flow measures over rate action, reinforcing the principle that inflation and growth, not the exchange rate, remain monetary policy's primary mandate.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 5, 2026 at 6:08 AM IST

istock.com

The Rupee Does Not Need a Speaking Role in Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy

The June review will be scrutinised for clues on how the MPC views rupee weakness, as an inflation risk or as a monetary policy consideration.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 4, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Istock.com

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

Above and Beyond Duty

Current macroeconomic stress may mute criticism over the disproportionate increase in cess relative to customs duty in the latest hike in import taxes on gold and silver.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 13, 2026 at 9:27 AM IST

stock/Andy

Congress Finds an Opening as Rivals Fade, but Time is Running Out

Congress faces a narrower but clearer path as rivals fade, but without vision and organisational reset, the opening may yet strengthen the BJP’s dominance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 5, 2026 at 8:28 AM IST

inc.in/

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

The Bureau

CRR Hike May be RBI’S Cleanest Option to Drain Liquidity – I-Sec PD

Indian Shares Snap Four-Day Losing Streak, Rupee Ends Steady

Govt Defends GDP Data, Rejects Claims of Window Dressing

CCI Finds Debenture Trustees Enforced Fee Floor

RBI May Shift From VRRRs to Short-Term Tools as FX Swap Inflows Flood System

Total FCNR(B) Inflows Under RBI Swap Window $127 Bln, Nearly Half of It in Last 10 days

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden