Venezuela Shock: Capture of Oil Reserves Core Issue, India Remains Unaffected

On January 4, United States forces carried out a large military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face charges including alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. 

Gaining control over Venezuelan crude oil lay at the core of the US operation. Venezuela holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5–6%), or the United States (around 4%). Venezuela alone has more crude oil reserves than the US and Russia combined.

The United States has signed trade deals with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom getting commitments from them to buy US petroleum products and LNG, without having sufficient crude oil or refining capacity.

Against this backdrop, Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves, represents a critical source of upstream crude for the US. Free access to Venezuelan oil was thus a central motivation for US.

For India, the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact. Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, and Indian firms such as ONGC Videsh held upstream stakes in the Orinoco belt, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions.

As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela is now small and declining. In 2024-25, India’s total imports from Venezuela were just $364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million—an 81.3% drop from $1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024. India’s exports to Venezuela were modest at $95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security.

In this emerging “might is right” global order—where international institutions have lost their voice and most major countries, except China and Russia, have stayed silent on United States actions—wars for raw materials and energy resources are likely to intensify in the coming years.

India must therefore act cautiously, protect its strategic autonomy, avoid deals that weaken sovereignty or long-term interests, and secure critical raw material and energy access without geopolitical pressure.