Gulf Turmoil Puts India’s Farm Exports at Risk

In 2025, India exported about $11.8 billion of agricultural and food products to West Asia, accounting for 21.8% of India’s total exports in this sector. The Gulf region’s geographic proximity and large expatriate Indian population have historically made it a natural market for India’s food exports.

However, the conflict in the region is disrupting shipping routes, raising insurance costs and creating uncertainty in logistics. Because many Indian farm products depend heavily on Gulf markets, continued disruption could directly affect farmers, food processors and exporters across several Indian states.

Products Impacted
Fruits, Vegetables and Rice

India exported $7.48 billion of cereals, fruits, vegetables and spices to West Asia in 2025, with the region accounting for 29.2% of India’s global exports in this category.

Key shipments include rice, bananas, onions and vegetables, pulses, nuts, coffee, tea and a wide range of spices.

•          Banana exports reached $396.5 million, with 79.6% of India’s total banana exports going to West Asia, making growers in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat particularly exposed.

•          Exports of onions and garlic totaled $111 million, while other vegetables reached $91.5 million, with the region accounting for 26.9% and 50.8% of India’s exports of these products respectively.

•          Rice faces the largest potential impact. India exported $4.43 billion of rice to West Asia, accounting for 36.7% of its global rice exports, making Gulf markets crucial for producers in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

•          Spices and plantation crops are also closely tied to regional demand. Nutmeg, mace and cardamom exports totaled $295.5 million, with 70.5% shipped to West Asia.

•          Exports of spice seeds such as cumin and coriander reached $163 million, while ginger and turmeric totaled $173 million, with about 23% of India’s exports of these products going to the region. These crops mainly support farmers in Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

•          Plantation crops show similar links. India exported $240.7 million of coffee and $410.1 million of tea to West Asia, accounting for 17.7% and 44.1% of India’s exports respectively, supporting producers in Karnataka, Kerala, Assam and West Bengal.

Processed Foods and Sugar

India exported $1.35 billion of processed food, sugar and cocoa preparations to West Asia in 2025.

•          Major products exported include sugar, bakery products such as bread and biscuits, processed fruits and nuts, and other packaged food preparations.

•          India exported $349 million of sugar, $121.8 million of bakery products, and $107.4 million of processed fruits and nuts to West Asia in 2025.

•          These shipments accounted for roughly 16–28% of India’s total exports of these products, affecting food processing industries in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

Meat and Seafood

India exported $1.81 billion of fish, meat, frozen and processed products to West Asia in 2025.

Major products exported include fresh or chilled beef, frozen beef, sheep and goat meat, and crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns.

•          Exports of fresh or chilled beef to West Asia reached $139 million in 2025, accounting for 97.4% of India’s total exports of this product.

•          Frozen beef exports to the region totaled $1.27 billion, representing 28.9% of India’s global exports. Sheep and goat meat exports reached $95.2 million, with 98.9% of India’s exports going to West Asia. Any disruption in Gulf markets could therefore severely affect India’s buffalo meat and livestock exporters, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Telangana, where most processing units are located.

•          Seafood shipments are also exposed. India exported $220 million of crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns to West Asia in 2025, affecting exporters in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Kerala.

Dairy Products

India exported $281.1 million of dairy products to West Asia in 2025, accounting for 28.9% of India’s total dairy exports.

Major products exported include butter and dairy fats, and cheese and curd.

•          Exports of butter and dairy fats to West Asia totaled $203 million, accounting for 58.1% of India’s total exports of these products, while cheese and curd exports reached $31.4 million, with 47.8% of India’s exports going to the region. Gulf demand supports dairy processors in Gujarat, Punjab and Rajasthan, and prolonged shipping disruptions could weaken export demand.

Beverages and Alcohol

India exported $197.5 million of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages to West Asia in 2025, and these shipments accounted for 43.3% of India’s exports in this category.

Major products exported include soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, and beer.

•          Exports of soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages to West Asia totaled $51.5 million, accounting for 55.6% of India’s exports, while beer exports reached $34.2 million, with 81% of India’s exports going to the region, highlighting the strong dependence of Indian beverage exporters on Gulf markets.

Tobacco and Allied Products

India exported $238 million of raw tobacco, $54.6 million of cigarettes and cigars, and $215.8 million of manufactured tobacco products to West Asia in 2025. These shipments accounted for 16.9–50.9% of India’s total exports of these products, affecting tobacco growers and processors in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat.

Productwise risk to Exports

West Asia is a major market for many of India’s agricultural exports, but dependence varies widely across products. We measure risk by the share of India’s exports going to West Asia—the higher the share, the greater the exposure of farmers, processors and exporters to disruptions in Gulf trade.

I-Very high risk products—where more than 70% of India’s exports go to West Asia—include sheep and goat meat (98.9%), fresh or chilled beef (97.4%), copra or dried coconut kernel (83.9%), beer (81.0%), bananas and plantains (79.6%), and nutmeg, mace and cardamom (70.5%). These sectors are the most exposed because Gulf markets account for the overwhelming majority of India’s exports.

II-High-risk products, where roughly 40–60% of exports depend on the region, include butter and dairy fats (58.1%), soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages (55.6%), coconut and palm kernel oil (52.5%), manufactured tobacco products (50.9%), other fresh vegetables (50.8%), cheese and curd (47.8%), other fresh fruits (44.8%), tea (44.1%), sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil (42.2%), and cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos (40.0%).

III-Medium-risk products, where about one-quarter to one-third of exports go to West Asia, include rice (36.7%), coconuts and cashew nuts (35.8%), frozen beef (28.9%), processed fruits and nuts (27.6%), onions, garlic and related vegetables (26.9%), spice seeds such as cumin and coriander (23.4%), spices such as ginger and turmeric (23.0%), and dried pulses (21.9%).

IV-Lower-risk products, where dependence on West Asia is relatively limited, include coffee (17.7%), bread, biscuits and bakery products (17.7%), raw tobacco (16.9%), other food preparations (16.9%), sugar (16.4%), and crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns (4.3%).

India’s agricultural exports have developed a deep dependence on West Asian markets over the past decade, particularly for products such as rice, bananas, spices, meat and dairy products. In 2025 alone, India exported nearly $11.8 billion worth of agricultural and food products to the region, accounting for more than one-fifth of the country’s total agri exports. The Gulf has been a natural destination due to its geographic proximity and large Indian diaspora. But the ongoing conflict in West Asia, along with disruptions to shipping routes and rising insurance costs, is now creating uncertainty for exporters and could directly affect farmers and food processors across several Indian states.

The data also show that the level of risk varies sharply across products. Some exports—such as sheep and goat meat, fresh beef, bananas, copra and certain spices—send more than 70% of their shipments to West Asia, making them extremely vulnerable if trade flows are disrupted. Others, including dairy products, beverages, tea and several edible oils, also depend heavily on Gulf demand. If instability around the Strait of Hormuz persists, the impact could ripple through India’s agricultural economy, highlighting the need for exporters to diversify markets and reduce excessive dependence on a single region.