The southwest monsoon’s early arrival over Kerala and its rapid sweep across southern and northeastern India in late May sparked widespread optimism. It reached several regions nearly two weeks ahead of schedule, prompting hopes of a strong kharif sowing cycle, rural income revival, and benign inflation prints. Markets, policymakers and even the central bank appeared reassured.In his June policy statement, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra pointed to the monsoon’s early onset and above-normal forecast as reasons to expect both rural demand and food inflation to behave favourably in the months ahead.
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