The minutes of the June 2025 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee offer a revealing look at a group wrestling with policy signalling, not just macroeconomic management. On the surface, the committee’s decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points while shifting its stance from accommodative to neutral has been explained in the post-meeting resolution. However, the minutes released on Friday reveal that the real driver was not data, but discomfort, specifically over how the easing cycle might be perceived if left unchecked.Almost every member acknowledged that inflation had fallen faster than expected. Headline CPI at 3.2% in April is well below the 4% medium-term target, and forecasts for average inflation in 2025–2026 are now at 3.7%. Most members expect food prices to ease, commodity pressures to stabilise, and inflation expectations to anchor. On growth, however, the tone was more guarded. Members welcomed the 7.4% GDP print for January–March but noted the impact of soft private investment, slowing credit growth, and the drag from weak global trade. Demand recovery remains uneven.
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