The Southwest Monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24—a full week ahead of the usual June 1 calendar date, and three days earlier than the India Meteorological Department’s forecast. Its advance over Mumbai on Monday was even more dramatic: more than two weeks early, marking the city’s earliest monsoon onset in over 25 years. The early onset has sparked optimism for a good monsoon this year.Historical data, however, reveals that an early onset does not always translate into sufficient overall rainfall. In fact, the earliest monsoon onset in the last 25 years was one of the driest seasons on record. In 2009, the monsoon kicked off on May 23—the earliest in 25 years—only to fizzle out. The country received just 82% of normal rainfall, marking one of the worst monsoon years in recent history.
.png)
