Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s private-sector manufacturing activity improved marginally from March, but remained subdued. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March. Despite the increase, the index signalled the second-weakest improvement in overall operating conditions in nearly four years. April data showed mild recoveries in new business intake and production, though the pace of expansion remained subdued.

New orders and output, the two largest sub-components of the PMI, rose from March levels but remained below readings seen over the past three-and-a-half years, as companies continued to report subdued demand due to the war in West Asia.

Spillovers from the West Asian conflict are becoming more evident, particularly through inflationary pressures. Companies indicated that the war exerted upward pressure on costs. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in 44 months, while output prices increased at the quickest pace in six months.

At 54.7, the manufacturing PMI was significantly lower than the flash estimate of 55.9.

Despite the lacklustre growth in manufacturing activity, the services sector improved sharply in April. The India Services PMI rose to 58.8 in April from 57.5 in March, marking a five-month high.

Indian services companies reported a recovery in output and new order inflows in April. In addition to increased e-commerce activity and stronger underlying demand, companies also cited a shift from international to domestic suppliers amid the war in West Asia, particularly in the transport segment.

Input costs in the services sector rose at a softer rate, though the increase remained among the sharpest in around 18 months. Companies absorbed a large part of the increase in input costs, as reflected in the relatively moderate rise in output charges, which was the weakest in three months.

Margins remained under pressure, with input costs rising faster than output prices in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

With both factory production and services activity regaining some lost momentum, Indian private-sector output expanded at a faster pace in April. The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 58.2 from 57.0 a month earlier. Even so, the latest rise remained among the slowest seen in around two-and-a-half years.

 

India’s retail automobile sales moderated in April but continued to grow robustly. Total sales rose 12.9% year-on-year to 2.61 million units in April, led by tractors and commercial vehicles. Automobile sales have remained buoyant ever since the government cut the goods and services tax rates. This is the fifth consecutive month that retail sales have grown in double digits year-on-year.

Two-wheeler sales increased 13.0% to 1.92 million units, with growth more or less even across urban and rural markets. Passenger vehicle sales rose 12.2% to 407,355 units, with rural markets growing nearly three times faster than urban areas.

Commercial vehicle sales grew 15.0% to 99,339 units, led by a 27.1% rise in medium commercial vehicles and 17.8% growth in light commercial vehicles. Tractor sales increased 23.2% to 75,109 units in April.

Electric vehicle penetration continued to rise, though it remained modest at 7.8% in two-wheelers, 5.8% in passenger vehicles, and 2.3% in commercial vehicles.

 

The total number of unincorporated establishments in the country increased 8.0% to 79.2 million in 2025 from 73.4 million in 2023-24 (October-September). The sector employed about 128.1 million workers in 2025, up 6.2% from 2023-24. Unincorporated entities are those not registered under the Companies Act.

After contracting in the previous two months, electricity generation in the country from conventional sources rose 2.4% year-on-year to 136.96 billion kWh in April. This is the highest electricity generation from conventional sources in absolute terms in 22 months. The recovery in electricity generation in April was led by a 12.9% increase in hydropower generation to 10.86 billion kWh. Thermal power, which accounted for nearly 90% of electricity generation from conventional sources, rose 1.5% to 120.86 billion kWh in April.

 

Freight traffic at major ports rose 2.4% year-on-year to 73.76 million tonnes in April, led by a 31.9% increase in miscellaneous cargo to 10.79 million tonnes. Crude and petroleum products volume, which accounts for roughly 30% of total traffic, contracted 7.9% to 19.80 million tonnes in April. Container traffic rose 7.8% to 18.38 million tonnes. The contraction in crude and petroleum traffic was expected as the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has remained mostly shut due to the war in West Asia.

 

Growth in e-way bill generation moderated to a six-month low of 11.8% in April from 12.9% in March and 23.4% a year ago. The total number of bills generated was 133.37 million, down from the record 140.60 million in March. Growth in e-way bill generation has been steadily moderating after peaking at 27.6% in November.

 

Gross direct premiums of general insurers rose 8.3% year-on-year to ₹364 billion in April. State-owned The New India Assurance Co. Ltd. had the highest market share in premium income in April at 16.7%, followed by ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co. Ltd. at 10.0%.

 

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a five-week low of $690.69 billion as of May 1, declining by $7.79 billion during the week. Foreign currency assets fell by $2.80 billion to $551.83 billion, while gold holdings declined by $5.02 billion to $115.22 billion. The reserves fell primarily due to lower gold prices and the Reserve Bank of India’s dollar sales in the foreign exchange market to curb the rupee’s fall against the dollar. The rupee depreciated 0.7% against the US dollar in the week to May 1 as the war in West Asia showed no signs of easing.

 

Area under summer crops picked up, with total acreage rising 3.3% year-on-year to 8.16 million hectares as of May 1. While rice acreage declined 4.2% to 3.11 million hectares, pulses acreage rose 3.2% to 2.35 million hectares, and oilseeds acreage increased 15.2% to 1.10 million hectares.

 

Pre-monsoon rainfall has been above normal so far, with cumulative precipitation at 89.5 mm for March 1 to May 8, 8% above the long-period average of 82.7 mm. 

Reservoir storage levels, though declining, remained well above historical norms. As of May 7, storage stood at 66.83 billion cubic metres, or 36% of the total capacity — 14% higher than a year earlier and 25% above the 10-year average.

Coming up

• May 11: Periodic Labour Force Survey for Jan-Mar
• May 12: Consumer Price Index for April
• May 15: Trade data for April  

Tailpiece
Female workers accounted for about 29% of the total workforce in the unincorporated sector. The share of unincorporated proprietary establishments headed by women increased to 26.9% in 2025. In the manufacturing sector, female proprietors owned more than 60% of the establishments.