Tight Race; Voter Turnout, Last Minute Swings Remain Key

Round II of Vote Vibe’s Bihar survey shows a highly competitive election with multiple variables that could influence the final outcome. The SIR, Voter Adhikar Yatra and multiple schemes announced by the Nitish Kumar-led government are all impacting the electoral landscape in polls scheduled for November this year. 

Key Findings of the Survey:

Electoral Competitiveness
Bihar is witnessing an extremely tight race with NDA vote share seen at 36.2% and MGB / INDIA bloc seen at 35.8%, within the margin of error range. In 2020, both alliances had bagged 37% vote share with vote difference being only 12,000 votes. 

While there is strong anti-incumbency sentiment working against the ruling NDA, the same is being split between MGB and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, which could emerge as a potential kingmaker with an 8.7% vote share. 

Strong pro-incumbency sentiment has also increased compared to Round I primarily due to free electricity, cash dole promise to women and increase in pensions. 

How do you see the level of anti / pro-incumbency with regards to CM Nitish Kumar led NDA govt.?

Demographic Patterns
Youth voters (18-24) show strongest anti-incumbency (57%) and favour MGB while the 

Older voters (45+) are more supportive of NDA despite overall anti-incumbency. Jan Suraj Party is also gaining traction amongst this age group due to their fancy social media campaign. 

There is a clear age-based voting pattern: younger preferring more anti-establishment and older being more pro-incumbent. This ties up with unemployment as the biggest issue with youngsters. 

Importantly, the youngsters have not seen much of RJD’s performance on law and order or the lack of it during Lalu Prasad’s regime compared to older voters who are imprisoned by fear factor.

Caste-based Voting
Anchor voting segments display traditional voting patterns. Muslims are heavily favouring MGB (72% vs 10% NDA) while Upper Castes are backing NDA (55% vs 16% MGB). 

Jan Suraj is also receiving decent upper caste support at 19% as Prashant Kishore hails from the Brahmin community. 

The OBCs are split between NDA (43%) and MGB (36%) with Yadavs backing MGB and EBC/MBC NDA. SCs are leaning towards NDA primarily due to Chirag Paswan and Jiten Ram Manjhi being on its side. 

 Who are you likely to vote for in Bihar elections?

Leadership Preferences
Tejashwi Yadav continues to lead the CM preference race (33.5% vs Nitish Kumar's 24%). Prashant Kishor registers significant support (13.7%) as a new entrant. 

The youth, Muslim and Yadavs are backing Tejashwi, with Prashant getting one-fifth of his support from Gen Z due to his focus on education and employment. 

On a combined basis, the ratings of NDA leadership of Nitish Kumar, Samrat Chaudhary and Chirag Paswan are higher than Tejashwi’s ratings (37.5% vs 33.5%). More women back Nitish than men while the opposite holds true for Tejashwi. 

NDA has a bouquet of leaders while MGB relies heavily on Tejashwi. Around 15% of voters may cast their vote on the basis of the CM face while 17% on the PM face. So, leadership will play a crucial role being the main voting consideration of a third of voters. 

Who do you wish to see as CM of Bihar?

Key Issues
Unemployment and Migration is the top most concern (34.2%) of voters. Vote manipulation concerns (21.3%) "SIR/Vote Chori" occupies the second spot due to anxiety amongst voters and Voter Adhikar Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi. Corruption, law and order and price rise are amongst the Top 5 issues. 

Around a fifth of voters cited development issues as main voting consideration. Compared to the last round, SIR/VoteChori saw a big jump of 17% with a corresponding decline of 15% in unemployment. This is because of constant push and opposition to SIR by opposition and galvanising voters through Adhikar Yatra.

According to you, what is the topmost issue?

Campaign Effectiveness

• 125 Units of Free Electricity: 41% see it as "just an election slogan" vs 35% "good decision". 
•  Rs. 10,000 Women Employment: 45% are skeptical vs 37% positive, this could be a game changer like Laadki Bahin of Maharashtra as women await transfers in their accounts. 
•  GST Rate Cut: Opinion is highly divided on whether it will benefit NDA or not with 37% saying it would, and an equal number say it won’t. 
•  Rahul-Tejashwi: Yatra: 46% respondents believe it would have a positive impact, especially among youth (52%). 39% believe it would have no electoral impact.
•  PM Mother Abuse: High number of respondents 41.9% believe it would not have any impact while 41.8% believe it would energise NDA cadre and have an impact on floating voters. 

Strategic Implications

The election outcome will depend on voter turnout and last-minute swings. Women turnout historically has been higher than men by 5-6% in Bihar, if ₹10,000 scheme is implemented well, then the trend could continue. 

Youth mobilisation is crucial for MGB's chances as unemployment is the biggest issue, however it needs to be wary of Jan Suraj also making a dent in the votebank. 

The third front in the form of Jan Suraj could be decisive in close constituencies just like Chirag Paswan’s LJP was in 2020 when it scored more votes than margin of victory in 73 of 243 seats. 

Caste arithmetic and candidate selection remains critical. The battle is between NDA's UC+SC+NYOBC+ EBC coalition vs MGB's MY alliance. MGB will have to make a dent in EBC/SC votebank of NDA. 

This appears to be a highly-competitive election with multiple variables that could influence the final outcome.