More Variables Are At Play As One Big Constant Leaves The Equation
A key constant exits, adding more variables to RBI’s rate-setting equation
By BasisPoint Groupthink
Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.
February 6, 2025 at 12:14 PM IST
Michael Patra has been a familiar figure to those who follow India’s monetary policy closely. That will change on Friday when, for the first time since the Reserve Bank of India adopted the Monetary Policy Committee framework, he will not be part of the decision-making process.
Patra’s term as Deputy Governor ended on Jan 14, 2025, capping a long association with the central bank’s monetary policy apparatus. Even before his elevation to the deputy governor’s role, he was a key player, having served as Executive Director in charge of the Monetary Policy Department and as an RBI-nominated MPC member since its inception in October 2016. Over the years in the MPC, he worked under two governors—Urjit Patel and Shaktikanta Das—and witnessed changes in the deputy governor position, including Viral Acharya’s tenure and interim appointments during transitions.
Before the MPC framework came into force, Patra had served as an adviser in the RBI’s monetary policy department, working under then-Governor Y.V. Reddy and Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan. The period was marked by surging capital inflows that tested India's ability to absorb them, adding to the complexities of monetary management.
Patra was not always aligned with the majority view. In August 2017, he voted against both the governor and the deputy governor, repeating the stance in June and August 2018. His dissent helped reinforce the notion that the MPC was not bound by an internal consensus, supporting its credibility as an independent rate-setting body.
He also played a significant role in strengthening the RBI’s research ecosystem. Under his guidance, the central bank’s monthly bulletin—particularly the ‘State of the Economy’ section—became essential reading for those seeking insight into institutional thinking. He worked closely with researchers, ensuring their work gained visibility and relevance beyond academic circles.
His absence will be notable when Sanjay Malhotra presides over his first MPC meeting on February 5-7. M. Rajeshwar Rao, holding interim charge of the monetary policy department, will attend for the first time. With the three external members—Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar—attending only their third meeting, RBI Executive Director Rajiv Ranjan is the sole link to past deliberations.
The timing of this transition adds complexity. The RBI faces conflicting domestic and global cues, even as market expectations lean towards a rate cut after two years of status quo. Would Patra have opposed such a move? It isn't easy to say. He was often seen as a policy hawk, and some in the market argue that he erred in keeping liquidity tight through most of 2024 while ensuring the rupee remained unusually stable, raising questions about the RBI’s approach to currency management.
Friday’s policy decision will mark several firsts—a governor and deputy governor casting their votes in an MPC meeting for the first time. But one absence will stand out.
As the RBI navigates this evolving landscape, Patra, known for his deep research interests and an eye for detail, leaves behind a distinct presence—even in the décor of his office. During RBI’s video press conferences at the height of Covid, his office featured images of tigers—some captured by colleagues, some taken with his own phone. The motif reappeared in his farewell note, where he used the tiger as a metaphor for the RBI’s nine-decade journey.
With his departure, the RBI will have to chart its course without one of its longest-serving policymakers.