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Amitabh Tiwari, formerly a corporate and investment banker, now follows his passion for politics and elections, startups and education. He is Founding Partner at VoteVibe.
October 30, 2025 at 10:08 AM IST
The poll season in Bihar is heating up with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi taking the gloves off.
Who will win the Bihar Premier League?
The answer to this lies in the key caste contests as battlelines are drawn. While MGB and NDA have given tickets to core vote blocks, Prashant Kishore led JSP entry is complicating matters in seats where it has put up same caste candidates as the two leading allies.
Also Read: Bihar’s Economy Is Hostage to Its Politics: Its People Deserve Better
The 21% "Caste-First" Voters Are Kingmakers
As per VoteVibe tracker, 51% respondents are likely to prefer party over caste and stay loyal to party even if it does not give tickets to candidates from their caste. On the other hand 21% respondents prefer caste over party and would vote for other parties if they field candidates from their caste.
Another 6% said they would not vote for their preferred party if they did not give tickets to candidates from their caste, punishing parties for wrong caste choices.
Also Read: Bihar Election 2025: NDA Banks on Experience, RJD Bets on Change
Core VoteBank Focus By Parties
JDU has fielded 51% Non Yadav OBC (NYOBC) & EBCs, 22% Upper Caste candidates. BJP has given tickets to 49% Upper Caste and 34% to NYOBC & EBCs. RJD has fielded 36% Yadavs and 13% Muslims. Congress has fielded 34% NYOBC & EBC, 24% Upper Caste candidates. Jan Suraj Party (JSP) has fielded 36% Upper Caste and 13% Muslim candidates.
BJP's calculus shows a clear pivot away from Yadav accommodation toward consolidating upper caste and EBC base. JDU's rebalancing act shows distancing from RJD's core base of Muslim Yadav. RJD is relying on the traditional Muslim Yadav coalition. INC(Indian National Congress)'s dramatic shift shows massive Upper Caste reduction and huge increase in favour of NYOBC/EBC. JSP aims at leveraging the Brahmin / Upper Caste identity of BJP at the same time attempting to make a dent in RJD core vote.
Jan Suraj Party's Disruptive Potential
JSP has given tickets to 31 Muslims, 21 Yadavs, 87 Upper Caste and 6 Bania community candidates.
Muslim Yadav Seats Impact: These 52 candidates will primarily hurt MGB (RJD-led alliance). 75% of Muslim Yadav backed the MGB in 2020.
Upper Caste Seats Impact: The 87 Upper Caste JSP candidates will damage NDA more. 60% of the Upper Caste backed the NDA in 2020.
JSP will hurt both alliances, the upper caste split damages NDA while the Muslim Yadav split damages MGB. The net effect depends on turnout and whether JSP draws more from disappointed NDA upper caste voters or traditional MGB Muslim Yadav voters.
Also Read: Inflexion Point: Can Bihar Break Free from Caste Politics in Elections 2025?
Given NDA's stronger position among upper castes, they appear to have the structural advantage - unless JSP's upper caste appeal proves devastating to BJP's 49% upper caste strategy. The same holds true for RJD’s 49% Muslim Yadav strategy. In the end it's not the number of seats which JSP wins but the quantity and quality of votes it gets which could in turn spoil the prospects of both NDA and MGB.
Top Direct Contests
There are five social groups: Yadavs, Muslims, Rajputs, Koeris and Bhumihars, account for around 60% of MLA strength in the assembly. On 36 seats both NDA and MGB have put candidates from the same social group splitting the community votes and making the role of other social groups important.
On 11 seats where MGB has put up a Muslim candidate, JSP has also fielded Muslim candidates. On 4 seats there is a Yadav vs Yadav contest between JSP and MGB. In 39 seats there is an Upper Caste vs Upper Caste contest between JSP and NDA. In the 5 seats Koeri vs Koeri contest between JSP and NDA, 3 seats between JSP and MGB.
All the parties have put similar caste candidates on a few seats which makes the contest further interesting. Though few in number here the role of loyal caste groups and opposition core bloc including startup JSP’s role could tilt the scales.
Also Read: The Battle of Two MYs: Decoding Bihar's Electoral Arithmetic
Who will Win Bihar Elections In 2025?
The clue may lie in a fascinating statistic. Of 105 seats in Bihar the same social group has been winning for the last three elections since delimitation in 2008. On 66 of these seats: Rajput, Bhumihar, Koeri, Yadav and Muslim candidates have been winning consistently.
On 81 / 105 such seats, NDA has put up same caste candidates in 2025. On 59 such seats, MGB has put up same caste candidates in 2025. NDA's 81 vs MGB's 59 advantage here could be the difference between victory and defeat. This suggests NDA has a better caste-matching strategy where it matters most.
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