El Nino May Lower Harvest; But Won’t Compromise Food Security

The Southwest monsoon set in over Kerala on June 4, and from now until September, concerns over El Nino and the tight supply of synthetic fertiliser will occupy the discourse on agriculture, and the expected production of various crops.

The India Meteorological Department has downgraded its rainfall forecast for monsoon from the earlier 92% of long period average of 870 mm to 90% of the LPA with a model error of (+/-) 4%. At 90% of 870 mm, the expected precipitation translates to about 780 mm. 

While terms like ‘Super El Nino’, severe drought, and threat to food security are doing the rounds, how grave really is the situation? The threat of El Nino is very real, but we do not yet know how severe it could turn out to be.

First, it is important to recognise that the temporal (over four months) and spatial (geographic) distribution of rainfall is more critical than the total quantum of rain recorded during the season. So, even a lower quantum of rainfall, say 800 mm, well distributed temporally and spatially can help reduce potential harvest losses.

Water storage at major reservoirs across the country is barely satisfactory. Moreover, heatwave conditions over the last six to eight weeks, especially in northern and central parts of the country, have resulted in loss of soil moisture. A good risk management principle would be to build plausible scenarios and design strategies to mitigate adverse outcomes. District-wise contingency plans could well be the starting point for this.

As a weather phenomenon, El Nino is usually associated with lower rainfall, dry conditions and aberrant behavior of monsoon. It may result in early or late onset of monsoon, early or delayed withdrawal of rains, long intermittent periods of no precipitation or large number of cloudy days with no rains.

Such weather patterns confuse the crop and affect growth cycle. For example, prolonged periods of rainless cloud cover often results in pest proliferation, making crops susceptible to pest attacks. This is where education and active handholding of farmers becomes important. Engaging with them by using the domain expertise of agricultural universities and Krishi Vigyan Kendras would surely help mitigate risks to an extent.

From a food security perspective, however, our country is not in the danger zone. We have adequate public stocks of rice and wheat. State agencies like the Food Corporation of India procured well over 30 million tonnes of wheat in the recently-concluded Rabi harvest season, while rice stocks stand at a decade-high level of close to 40 million tonnes. Moreover, the export of sugar has been suspended, while import of pulses is liberalised until March 2027. Edible oil availability in the global market is comfortable, even though prices are high.

In sum, even if the Kharif 2026-27 output of major crops falls 10-12% from the previous year’s level, it would not compromise food security in the country, though supply might tighten and prices may rise. Overall, rural income may not go up, and inflation could become a point of concern for the populace. As inflation hits the poor the hardest, policymakers will most likely have to deploy fiscal, monetary, trade, tariff and administrative measures as they see appropriate to mitigate the negative fallout of El Nino.

The four-decade-old statement that ‘Indian agriculture is a gamble on the monsoon’ rings true even today. Even with stockpiles of grain enough to feed the nation, we have miles to go before we can claim genuine food self-sufficiency to meet the food needs of our people.