India’s success in taming inflation in 2025 has been widely celebrated. With headline CPI inflation falling to 2.10% in June, the lowest since January 2019, and food prices entering deflation, the macroeconomic narrative points to stability. Vegetable prices registered a steep year-on-year decline of 19.00%, pulses fell by 11.76%, and the food and beverages index declined 0.20%. In a country where food accounts for a major share of household expenditure, especially among the poor, such disinflation should, in theory, improve food access and nutritional intake.Yet, findings from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (2023–24) tell a different story. Despite falling prices and increasing dietary variety, average daily calorie intake remains stagnant at 2,212 kilo calories in rural and 2,240 kilo calories in urban areas. The poorest 5% of rural households consume only 1,688 kilo calories, far below the minimum norm of 2,100–2,200 kilo calories. Protein and fat intake has also seen no significant gains. This disconnect between prices and consumption reveals a silent nutritional paradox beneath India’s disinflationary achievement.
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