What A Week! Best For Equity In 4 Years, Best For Rupee In 2 Years

Key Highlights:
•    Manappuram Finance shares surge 8% as Bain Capital to acquire stake in the company
•    BHEL shares rose nearly 3% after firm wins ₹75 billion order from Gujarat State Electricity Corp
•    Railtel shares jump 5% on bagging order from Ministry Of Defence
•    RVNL shares rose after ₹5.54 billion order from NHAI in Andhra Pradesh
•    Tata Capital finalises 10 investment banks for over ₹150 billion mega IPO

Benchmark indices--Sensex and Nifty, closed on a positive note for the fifth trading session. The Nifty 50 gained 4.26% this week, marking its best week since February 2021.

A stronger rupee, easing selling from foreign investors and US FOMC’s forecast of two rate cut this year bolstered investor sentiment.

The broader markets witnessed strong buying from retail investors, which lifted the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices 1-2% higher.

SECTORAL PERFORMANCE 
Across the broader market, 11 out of 13 major sectoral indices ended in positive territory. Nifty Energy, Nifty Bank, Nifty Auto, Nifty Infra, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Media, and Nifty PSU Bank each rose between 1-2%. 
Among specific stocks, Bajaj Finance hit a record high following Rajeev Jain’s elevation to Vice Chairman.

Top Gainers	% Change	Top Losers	% Change
NIFTY MEDIA	2.20%	NIFTY CONSUMER DURABLES	-0.77%
NIFTY OIL & GAS	1.84%	NIFTY METAL	-0.55%
NIFTY HEALTHCARE INDEX	1.39%	--	--
NIFTY PHARMA	1.34%	--	--
NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES 25/50	1.12%	--	--

Yields on 10-year government bonds ended 2 basis points lower today on growing hopes of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India amid liquidity infusion measures spurred the demand.

The US FOMC’s policy decision and the rupee’s recovery in this week also lifted the appetite for the Indian government bonds.  For the week, the gilt yield fell 7 basis points, the biggest fall since November.

The RBI has infused over ₹5.50 trillion into the banking system so far through a combination of market bond purchases, FX swaps and longer duration repos.

Tenure	Today	Previous
10-year Gilt	6.62%	6.64%
5-year gilt	6.49%	6.53%
5-year OIS	5.88%	5.87%

The Indian rupee extended its gaining streak to eighth session, and ended at 85.9725 a dollar today, highest level since January 9. This week the rupee gained 1.2%, which is best weekly performance in two years. 
Fall in dollar index, abating of FII selling in local equity market have boosted the Indian rupee this week.  The rupee also found support from steady foreign debt inflows, range-bound oil, lower domestic inflation and a shrinking trade deficit. 
The RBI’s regular interventions also provided support to the rupee.

Unit	Today	Previous
Dollar/Rupee	85.97	86.37
Dollar Index	103.63	103.50
1-year Dollar/rupee premium (%)	2.20%	2.15%

OUTLOOK
Indian equity markets are expected remain upbeat after solid recovery this week. FII flows will remain a key factor for the Indian equity market, alongside domestic institutional inflows. The monthly derivatives expiry will also influence market volatility.  Global geopolitical risks, such as trade tensions and conflicts, can impact investor sentiment and market volatility.

The rupee is likely to stay supported on year-end dollar sales by exporters. The expected trading range for Monday is 85.50–86.25. 

Key Events & Data Due Next Week
Economic Data:
- India Oct-Dec Balance of Payments Data 
- India External Debt Data 
- Statistics on Banks' Oct-Dec Deposits and Credit 
- India February Fiscal Data
- US February Core PCE data 

Corporate Actions:
- SIS board to consider buyback
- DCM Shriram Industries board to consider dividend
- MSTC board to consider dividend
- Matrimony.Com board to consider dividend
- TVS Holdings board to consider dividend
- Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency board to discuss fundraising plans
- TIL Ltd board to discuss fundraising plans
- Lancor Holdings board to discuss fundraising plans
- Rudrabhishek Enterprises board to discuss fundraising plans

Policy:
- SEBI board meeting  
- Minutes of Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
- US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks