The Reserve Bank of India’s surplus transfer to the government has drawn attention for what it did not deliver—a windfall for the exchequer. The central bank transferred a record ₹2.69 trillion as surplus for 2024-25, but fell short of the market expectations of ₹3.0-3.5 trillion. On the face of it, the lower number appeared to reflect higher provisioning towards the Contingency Fund. But a closer reading of the RBI’s accounts reveals a more layered story: valuation gains, not so much forex trading gains, drove the central bank’s balance sheet strength this year.Why did the surplus disappoint despite a record year of dollar sales? The record sales of foreign exchange by the RBI had raised hopes of a sharply higher dividend. The RBI sold a record $398.71 billion in the foreign exchange market in 2024-25, more than double the $153 billion sold the year before. Though the gross foreign exchange sales rose 161% in 2024-25, the forex trading gains rose just 33% to ₹1.11 trillion.
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