GLOBAL MOOD: Risk OnDrivers: US-EU trade deal Markets adopted a risk-on mood as the US-EU trade deal eased tariff tensions and boosted investor confidence. Global stocks rose, the euro gained, and sentiment improved ahead of key central bank meetings. Asian markets remained mixed. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - Earnings: IndusInd Bank, GAIL, Mazagon Dock - India June IIP THE BIG STORYThe US and EU finally struck a trade deal Sunday, dodging a full-blown trade war. Instead of the 30% threatened, both sides settled on a 15% import tariff for most EU goods. US President Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen sealed the agreement at Trump’s golf course in Scotland after a one-hour meeting. Trump called it “the biggest deal ever,” boasting about $600 billion in EU investments and big buys in US energy and defence. The deal echoes the recent Japan pact but still leaves some issues hanging in the air. Data SpotlightNew orders for key US-manufactured capital goods fell unexpectedly in June, signalling a slowdown in business investment. Core capital goods orders, which exclude defence and aircraft, declined by 0.7% after an upwardly revised 2.0% rebound in May. Shipments of core capital goods – a key input for GDP calculations – rose 0.4% in June following a 0.5% gain in May. The moderate increase suggests that while equipment spending contributed to growth, momentum eased in the second quarter. Takeaway: The data shows that US business investment momentum is slowing, with weaker core capital goods orders offset by only modest growth in shipments. This suggests companies are becoming more cautious with equipment spending amid trade uncertainty, which could weigh on economic growth in the coming quarters. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US Stocks close at record highs on trade optimism The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended Friday at record highs, supported by optimism that a US-EU trade deal could be reached soon. Intel slumped 8.5% after forecasting larger-than-expected quarterly losses and announcing job cuts. Dow Jones rose 0.47% to 44,901.92; S&P 500 climbed 0.40% to 6,388.64; Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24% to 21,108.32 US Treasury yields ease as markets look ahead to Fed decision The 10-year yield fell 2.4 bps to 4.384% on Friday, stabilising around 4.4% after a volatile week. Investors digested trade headlines pointing to a possible US-EU tariff deal and awaited next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged as it assesses the potential inflationary impact of the recently agreed tariffs. US dollar firms ahead of key week for markets The dollar strengthened on Friday as investors positioned for a pivotal week that includes a Federal Reserve policy meeting, major corporate earnings, and the 1 August trade deadline. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.23% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.11% to $1.1741, while the yen weakened 0.44%, taking the dollar to 147.65. Crude oil prices drop to a three-week low on supply concerns Brent crude settled 1.1% lower at $68.44 per barrel, while WTI fell 1.3% to $65.16. Prices slipped on Friday as traders reacted to weak economic signals from the US and China and indications of growing supply. Losses were partly offset by optimism that prospective US trade deals could support future global growth and energy demand. Day’s Ledger Economic Data: India June Industrial Production ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts Corporate Events: Earnings: Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, Ajanta Pharma, Bharat Electronics, Esaar India, Fedbank Financial, GAIL, IndusInd Bank, Mazagon Dock, Nippon Life India, NTPC Green, Piramal Pharma, Railtel Corp, and TTK Prestige JK Paper to consider fund raising Narmada Macplast to consider stock split, bonus share issue Torrent Pharmaceuticals to consider fund raising Veranda Learning to consider fund raising Tickers to Watch ADANI ENERGY SOLUTIONS: Swings to ₹5.1 bln profit in Q1 on strong transmission and smart meter biz. ADANI ENTERPRISES: Trades 50% stake in copper tube units with MetTube to boost local output, cut imports. ANANT RAJ: PAT rises 38% YoY to ₹1.26 bln on robust revenue growth. APL APOLLO TUBES: Q1 profit up 23% YoY at ₹2.37 bln; down QoQ on weak Dubai performance. BAJAJ FINANCE: PAT climbs 20% YoY to ₹47.00 bln on strong AUM and NII growth. BHARAT ELECTRONICS: Bags fresh defence, marine orders worth ₹5.63 bln. CG POWER: PAT up 12% YoY to ₹2.69 bln; margins pressured by industrial segment. CYIENT: Profit drops 9.7% QoQ to ₹1.54 bln; revenue down 10.3%. HCL TECHNOLOGIES: CEO C. Vijayakumar reappointed till Mar 2030, pending shareholder nod. INDIAN ENERGY EXCHANGE: PAT up 21% YoY at ₹1.13 bln; revenue grows 13%. KARUR VYSYA BANK: PAT rises 14% YoY to ₹5.21 bln; board clears 1:5 bonus. PHOENIX MILLS: To buy 49% in Island Star Mall for ₹54.59 bln in 4 tranches. REC: PAT jumps 29% YoY to ₹44.51 bln, boosted by interest income and write-back. RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE: Denies any association with ED-probed Anil Ambani group firms. RELIANCE POWER: Says ED probe has no operational impact; denies Anil Ambani ties. SBI LIFE: PAT up 14% YoY to ₹5.94 bln; AUM rises 15% to ₹4.76 trln. SUN PHARMA: Subsidiaries settle US antitrust case for $200 mln; actual payout may be lower. TANLA PLATFORMS: Profit flat QoQ at ₹1.18 bln; down 16% YoY on higher costs. TATA POWER: Invests ₹1.20 bln in Bhutan’s Khorlochhu Hydro as first part of ₹8.3 bln plan. TRIDENT: Profit soars 89% YoY to ₹1.39 bln despite 2% revenue dip. UTI AMC: PAT jumps 74% QoQ to ₹2.16 bln on fair value gains; AUM at ₹21.93 trln. WIPRO: Bags smart grid project from Saudi’s National Grid SA for meter data system MUST READ Eyewear unicorn Lenskart gets shareholder approval for $1 billion IPO TCS to lay off 2% of its workforce, impacting over 12,000 employees Savings deposit rates of some PSBs at historic low, says RBI bulletin India-UK FTA will grow Scotland whisky market by $1 billion Indian economy can grow over 6.5% in FY26 without hurdles Pressure mounts on Fed Powell ahead of key GDP, jobs data release ECB’s Cipollone is seeing ‘conflicting signals’ in economy Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazil may hit Sao Paulo state GDP by 2.7% Lagarde’s ECB diary shows she did meet WEF Chief Schwab in April See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.Have a great trading day.In India's quick commerce race, Eternal Ltd is proving that success isn’t about flashy discounts but flawless logistics. While rivals bleed money chasing users, Blinkit’s operational efficiency and high take rates show that the real moat lies in reliability and scale. Dev Chandrasekhar writes Eternal’s rise signals a shift: in this market, consistent delivery trumps deep pockets—and boring infrastructure may be the smartest investment of all.
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