America’s financial outlook has darkened under Donald Trump’s leadership. All three major credit-rating agencies now rank US federal debt one notch below triple A, and Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns of a crack in the US bond market. With the ten-year US Treasury yield still only 4.41% on June 13, 2025 – while the 30-year rate is at 4.9% – holders of nominal US debt should be prepared for significant real losses.The principal risk is not US sovereign default, but rather unexpected increases in medium- and long-term interest rates, owing to market expectations higher inflation. Fiscal policy under Trump is unsustainable, as it was under Joe Biden, but even more so if the administration’s “big, beautiful” budget passes in anything like its current form.
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