GLOBAL MOOD: Risk OffDrivers: Trade deadline tensions, strong tech earnings, inflation pressures Asian markets slipped for the sixth day in a row as Trump rolled out fresh tariffs and trade worries took centre stage. Solid results from Microsoft and Meta helped a bit, but investors stayed cautious with the August 1 deadline looming and inflation still hanging around. Risk appetite was clearly on pause despite the tech cheer. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - US Trade Deals, US Non-Farm Payroll Data - Earnings: Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals, ITC, Tata Power Company THE BIG STORYPresident Trump has laid down the law: if countries don’t strike a trade deal by Friday, they’ll be hit with steep tariffs. Canada could face a 35% duty on goods outside the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. India’s staring at a 25% tariff from August 1, and Mexico managed a 90-day breather after a call with President Sheinbaum. The White House says countries yet to hear from Washington will get an official letter or executive order by midnight. Trump also mentioned Canadian PM Mark Carney tried reaching out, but so far, no talks. It’s shaping up to be a tense week on the trade front. DATA SPOTLIGHTInitial jobless claims in the US edged up slightly to 218,000 in the fourth week of July, below expectations of 224,000 and remaining close to recent lows. Continuing claims held steady at 1.95 million, reflecting a labour market that remains relatively resilient despite signs of slower hiring momentum. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose 0.3% in June, its biggest monthly gain in four months, with core PCE also up 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation quickened to 2.6% and core inflation held at 2.8%. Separately, US natural gas inventories rose by 48 billion cubic feet in the week ending 25 July, exceeding forecasts, though stocks remained 3.8% below year-ago levels. Takeaway: The data points to a still-resilient US labour market with low levels of layoffs, while inflation pressures remain sticky, particularly in core PCE. Stronger-than-expected natural gas storage adds to supply-side comfort. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks slip as early gains fade ahead of tech earnings US stocks ended lower on Thursday as initial gains from strong corporate earnings were erased, with investors awaiting results from Amazon and Apple after the bell. Microsoft rose 3.5% after a robust earnings report briefly pushed its market value above $4 trillion, becoming only the second company to hit that mark after Nvidia. Meta Platforms surged 11.3% to a record high of $773.44 on strong AI-driven ad growth and an upbeat revenue forecast. US Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh inflation and growth signals The 10-year US Treasury yield slipped to 4.372% on Thursday, down 0.6 bps, as investors digested mixed signals from inflation and growth data ahead of Friday’s July jobs report. The 30-year yield fell 1.5 bps to 4.898%, while the 2-year yield, closely tied to Fed policy expectations, rose 2 bps to 3.957%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in June and 2.8% year-on-year, while consumer spending showed minimal growth. US dollar firms ahead of tariff deadline and on earnings optimism The Dollar Index rose 0.26% to 100.05 on Thursday, supported by strong US corporate earnings and anticipation of trade clarity. The greenback was on track for its first monthly gain of 2025 against major currencies. Investors balanced upbeat earnings with concerns over rising inflation and the 1 August deadline for trade agreements. Crude oil prices fall as tariff deadline nears Brent crude oil prices settled 0.97% lower at $72.53 per barrel, while WTI fell 1.06% to $69.26. Prices declined on Thursday as investors focused on the looming 1 August tariff deadline and uncertainty over countries yet to finalise trade deals with the US. US crude futures were down more than $1 earlier in the session before trimming losses by the close. Day’s Ledger Economic Data China July Caixin Manufacturing PMI India July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI India weekly FX Reserves Eurozone July HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Eurozone July CPI US July Non-farm Payrolls US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI US June Construction Spending US July ISM Manufacturing PMI US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Corporate Actions Earnings: Adani Power, Delhivery, Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals, Godrej Properties, Graphite India, ITC, LIC Housing Finance, Procter & Gamble Health, Steel Strips Wheels, Tata Power Company, UPL, Venus Remedies Maral Overseas to consider fund raising Narayana Hrudayalaya to consider fund raising SRG Housing Finance to consider fund raising Adani Power to consider stock split Tickers to Watch AMBUJA CEMENTS plans ₹90–100 billion capex in FY26, backed by strong cash flows. BANK OF INDIA cuts MCLR by 10–15 bps for key tenures, effective Friday. CYIENT partners with Zinier to upgrade field ops via no-code platform. DABUR INDIA eyes high single-digit growth despite summer product hit. GODREJ PROPERTIES enters Vadodara with 34-acre land buy for residential build. GUJARAT GAS signs PNG supply deal with Waaree Energies for 50,000 SCMD. HUL to launch global premium personal care brands in Indian market. IGL guides for 7–8% long-term EBITDA margin as tariff hit fades. NCC wins ₹7.92 billion July orders from states for infra projects. TVS MOTOR sets ₹16–16.5 billion FY26 capex, eyes ₹20 billion roadmap. VEDANTA says demerger on track for Sept 30; addresses NCLT queries. MUST READ How the US Weaponized Pakistan Against India The Secret Rise of China’s AI Desert Empire US official says differences with India cannot be resolved overnight for deal Indian state refiners pause Russian oil purchases India forecasts average rainfall in August, surplus in September Treasury Secretary Bessent says ‘we have the makings of a deal’ with China India stays firm on Russia ties, farm sector as Trump imposes fresh tariffs Tata Trusts put faith in N Chandrasekaran for another term to sustain growth Anil Ambani summoned by ED in ₹170 billion loan fraud investigation Steel industry has few players as most struggle to survive Starlink gets satellite internet permit, spectrum norms ready: Scindia See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. Why India Won’t Blink in the Face of US Trade Pressure Amid escalating tariffs and penalty threats from the United States, India’s response has been remarkably restrained — yet quietly resolute. Former trade negotiator Sangeeta Godbole examines why India’s economic resilience and growing presence in global value chains provide it with strategic space to withstand pressure. Unlike more export-dependent economies, India’s large domestic market and measured stance help it navigate challenges without compromising policy autonomy or conceding ground on critical issues such as intellectual property and agricultural safeguards.
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