Trump Slaps India with 50% Tariff, Targets Foreign Chipmakers

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-Off
Drivers: Trade Tariffs, Mixed Corporate Earnings

Markets are leaning risk-off as trade tensions escalate sharply with Trump’s fresh 50% tariff on Indian exports and a sweeping 100% tariff on imported chips from countries not manufacturing in the US have amplified concerns over a broadening trade war. Uncertainty over further sanctions on Russia and Trump’s push for reshoring supply chains are unnerving global investors.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - US Initial Jobless Claims
 - US Fed Bostic and Musalem speaks
 - Earnings: HPCL, NALCO

THE BIG STORY
The Trump administration on Wednesday doubled down on its trade offensive, imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US, blaming New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian oil. This brings the total tariff burden to 50% and applies to shipments arriving after August 28. The White House said India's trade with Russia undermines US national security interests, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict. India condemned the move as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” saying it was being selectively targeted despite ongoing energy trade by others.

In a separate announcement, President Trump said the US would impose a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips from countries that are not producing in America or planning to do so. The new rate, aimed at reshoring critical supply chains, will exclude firms already committed to domestic manufacturing. The sweeping measure is expected to disrupt global chipmakers and accelerate efforts to shift tech production to the US.

DATA SPOTLIGHT
US crude oil inventories declined by 3.029 million barrels for the week ending August 1, 2025, significantly more than the expected 1.1-million-barrel draw, according to the EIA Petroleum Status Report. However, Cushing hub stocks rose by 453,000 barrels. On the refined fuels side, gasoline inventories dropped by 1.323 million barrels and distillate fuels decreased by 0.565 million barrels, pointing to solid fuel demand.

In the eurozone, retail sales jumped 3.1% year-on-year in June, outperforming expectations of 2.6% and suggesting the bloc’s consumer spending remains resilient despite global trade headwinds. While monthly growth came in at 0.3%, just shy of forecasts, strong upward revisions to prior months helped lift the overall trajectory of domestic demand.

Takeaway: The data shows that US fuel demand remains robust, with a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories, indicating strong consumption. Meanwhile, eurozone retail sales rose above expectations and previous months were revised higher, reinforcing the view that domestic demand in the bloc remains resilient despite global trade uncertainties.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US stocks rise on Apple’s manufacturing pledge, upbeat earnings
  
  • US Stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1% as Apple surged 5.1% following news of a $100-billion domestic manufacturing pledge.

• US Treasury yields edge higher after weak 10-year note auction
  
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 3.4 basis points to 4.23% after poor demand at the Treasury’s $42 billion auction.
  • ISM data showed services activity nearly stalled in July and employment contracted for a fourth straight month, tempering the move.

• US dollar falls as rate cut bets rise on soft jobs data
  
  • The Dollar Index slipped 0.5% to 98.24, extending losses after weak July jobs data published last week bolstered expectations for more Fed rate cuts.
  • Soft demand for the Treasury’s $42 billion 10-year note auction added to downward pressure on the greenback.

• Crude oil prices fall to 8-week low on Trump-Russia talks uncertainty
  
  • Brent crude prices fell 1.1% to $66.89 a barrel, while WTI slid 1.2% to $64.35, both settling at eight-week lows.
  • Prices declined after President Donald Trump signalled progress in talks with Moscow, raising doubts over potential new sanctions on Russia.
  • The news added to existing supply overhang concerns stemming from OPEC+'s recent output hike.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data:

• Australia June Balance of Trade
• US Initial Jobless Claims

Corporate Actions:

• Earnings: 3M India, Aegis Logistics, Apollo Tyres, BSE, Biocon, Blue Dart, C.E. Info, Caplin Point, Carborundum Universal, Century Plyboards, Crompton Greaves, Cummins India, Data Patterns, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, GIC, Global Health, Godrej Consumer, HPCL, Kalpataru Projects, Kalyan Jewellers, LIC, Max Financial, Metropolis Health, MMTC, NBCC, NALCO, NLC India, Page Industries, Sai Life, Schneider Electric, Shree Renuka, SignatureGlobal, Solar Ind, Sun TV, Ramco Cements.
• Soma Papers to consider fundraising

Policy Events:

• Australia RBA Connolly Speech
• US Fed Bostic Speech
• US Fed Musalem Speech

Tickers to Watch:

• BAJAJ HOLDINGS consolidated PAT surged to ₹34.87 billion from ₹16.10 billion YoY
• BAYER CROPSCIENCE net profit rose to ₹2.79 billion from ₹2.54 billion YoY
• BHARAT FORGE to transfer defence business to subsidiary for ₹4.53 billion
• FORTIS HEALTHCARE consolidated PAT rose 56.8% YoY to ₹2.6 billion
• GAIL & HINDUSTAN COPPER signed MoU to jointly invest in copper mining
• GLENMARK PHARMA US arm settled cases for $37.75 million; denies allegations
• GUJARAT NARMADA net profit fell 32% YoY as sales down nearly 21%
• HERO MOTOCORP net profit rose slightly YoY to ₹11.3 billion
• HUDCO net profit increased to ₹6.30 billion from ₹5.58 billion YoY
• IRB INFRA July gross toll collection at ₹5.48 billion vs 4.99 billion
• IRCON INTERNATIONAL PAT  14.7% YoY as sales declined 23.7%
• JINDAL STAINLESS PAT rose 10.9% YoY to ₹6.42 billion
• KIRLOSKAR OIL consolidated PAT fall  10.9% YoY to ₹1.42 billion
• RAYMOND consolidated net profit fell 28% YoY to ₹53.25 billion
• RITES PAT rose 2.8% YoY to ₹666.5 million
• UNO MINDA consolidated net profit rose to ₹2.91 billion from ₹1.98 billion YoY
• VARUN BEVERAGES issued $22 million guarantee on behalf of Zimbabwean subsidiary

MUST READ

• India Faces 25% More US Tariff for Russia Ties; GTRI Suggests Wait-and-Watch Approach
• PM Modi likely to be in China for SCO summit, first visit in 7 years
• RBI’s Premature Stance, Goalpost Shift May Haunt It on Growth
• RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds
• RBI Panel Recommends Retaining Weighted Average Call Rate as Policy Anchor
• Bajaj Auto flags lower-than-planned EV output on rare earths crunch
• NSE's role limited to providing data in Jane Street-like cases: CEO Chauhan
• SEBI chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey denies ban on weekly options expiry
• Trump Eyes 100% Chips Tariff, But 0% for US Investors Like Apple
• 'I won't humiliate myself': Brazil's president sees no point in tariff talks with Trump
• Trump could meet Putin over Ukraine as soon as next week

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day.

RBI’s Premature Stance, Goalpost Shift May Haunt It on Growth

As global trade risks rise, the RBI’s June pivot from an accommodative to neutral stance may have come too soon. Inflation is low, but growth fragility persists. Read the analysis by Kalyan Ram on why early closure of easing could haunt India’s growth response. By limiting its flexibility, the central bank risks blunting transmission and eroding credibility--just when agility is most needed.