GLOBAL MOOD: Mild Risk Off Drivers: Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty, US Tech Earnings, Trade Deals Optimism Markets turned mildly risk-off on Friday as Asian stocks slipped, ending their longest winning streak since January. Caution resurfaced over Fed rate cut uncertainty, despite recent tech earnings and trade optimism lifting global sentiment earlier. TODAY’S WATCHLIST- Prime Minister Modi’s Maldives visit- Earnings: Bank of Baroda, Cipla, SBI Cards, SAIL THE BIG STORYUS President Trump toured the Federal Reserve’s headquarter with Chair Jerome Powell, taking a closer look at the costly renovation that’s sparked political heat. Trump didn’t hold back, criticised the billion-dollar revamp and again pushed Powell to cut rates, though he said he won’t fire him just yet. Meanwhile, trade talks are picking up steam. The EU says a deal with the US is close, and US-China negotiations are back on next week in Stockholm, keeping market hopes alive. DATA SPOTLIGHTUS weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week ended July 19, marking a six-week decline and reaching the lowest level in over three months. This signals resilience in the labour market despite ongoing economic uncertainty linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. Meanwhile, US business activity gained momentum in July. The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rose to 54.6 from 52.9, the highest in seven months. While manufacturing showed contraction, a strong services sector drove overall expansion. S&P noted that broad-based tariffs contributed to rising input costs, which firms are increasingly passing on to consumers. Takeaway: Labour market stability and services-driven growth are offsetting tariff-related pressures. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs Boosted by strong earnings from Alphabet (+1%), signaling AI investments are delivering. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon gained 1% or more on renewed AI optimism. Market sentiment also supported by the US-Japan trade deal and progress in EU talks. US Treasury yields rose Optimism around trade deals with Japan and the EU reduced safe-haven demand. Strong US labor market data added to pressure on bond prices. Dollar traded flat vs euro, range-bound vs yen Euro showed little movement after ECB held rates steady. Yen remained stable, supported by higher rate expectations despite political uncertainty. Crude prices rose around 1% Gains driven by US inventory draws and Russia's plans to curb gasoline exports. Chevron’s US license to operate in Venezuela capped early gains, but oil rebounded late. Day’s LedgerEconomic Data: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters ECB June Consumer Inflation Expectations Euro June M3 Money Supply Fed Balance Sheet Jul 23 India Foreign Exchange Reserves Japan July CPI Corporate Actions: Apr-Jun earnings: Aadhar Housing, Bajaj Finserv, Bank of Baroda, Chennai Petroleum, Cipla, Dhani Services, Future Consumer, Mahindra Lifespace, NDTV, Paras Defence, Petronet LNG, Poonawalla Fincorp, Reliance Infrastructure, SBI Cards, Shriram Finance, SAIL, Sterlite Technologies, Tata Chemicals, Jammu & Kashmir Bank Arihant Capital to consider fund raising Davangere Sugar to consider fund raising Lloyds Enterprises to consider fund raising Patel Engineering to consider debt issue Regis Industries to consider bonus share issue Policy Events: Prime Minister Modi’s Maldives visit TICKERS TO WATCH APL APOLLO TUBES: Net profit up 23% YoY at ₹2.37 billion, though down over 19% QoQ due to weak Dubai output. BAJAJ FINANCE: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT rises 20% YoY to ₹47.00 billion on robust AUM and NII growth. BEL: Secures fresh orders worth ₹5.63 billion including jammers, seekers, and satcom systems. BHARAT ELECTRONICS: Wins additional orders worth ₹5.63 billion since Jun. 30 across defence and marine segments. BRIGADE ENTERPRISES: ICRA upgrades long-term rating to AA from AA- with stable outlook. CG POWER: Apr-Jun PAT rises 12% YoY to ₹2.69 billion as power segment drives growth; margins pressured by industrial business. CYIENT: Net profit down 9.7% QoQ at ₹1.54 billion; revenue slips 10.3% sequentially. BRIGADE ENTERPRISES:ICRA upgrades co’s long-term rating to AA from AA-. INDIAN ENERGY EXCHANGE: Net profit up 21% YoY at ₹1.13 billion; revenue rises 13% to ₹1.4 billion. KARUR VYSYA BANK: Apr-Jun PAT up 14% YoY to ₹5.21 billion; board approves 1:5 bonus issue.\ PHOENIX MILLS: To acquire 49% stake in Island Star Mall for ₹54.59 billion from CPP in 4 tranches over 3 years. REC: Apr-Jun net profit rises 29% YoY to ₹44.51 billion, aided by strong interest income and ₹6.17 billion write-back. RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE and RELIANCE POWER: Denies links to ED-probed Reliance Communications and Reliance Home Finance. SBI LIFE: Apr-Jun PAT rises 14% YoY to ₹5.94 billion; AUM up 15% to ₹4.76 trillion. SUN PHARMA: Subsidiaries settle US antitrust case for $200 million; final payout may be lower. TANLA PLATFORMS: Net profit flat QoQ at ₹1.18 billion; down 16% YoY due to elevated costs. TATA POWER: Invests ₹1.20 billion in Bhutan’s Khorlochhu Hydro Power as first tranche of ₹8.30 billion plan. TRIDENT: Net profit jumps 89% YoY to ₹1.39 billion despite 2% fall in revenue. UTI AMC: Apr-Jun PAT surges 74% QoQ to ₹2.16 billion on sharp fair value gains; AUM at ₹21.93 trillion. WIPRO: Wins smart grid project from Saudi’s National Grid SA to implement smart meter data system. MUST READ India, UK sign free trade agreement; set to boost annual trade by $34 bn New investor should have a say in Yes Bank CEO succession plan: MD & CEO Serious' safety violations: DGCA issues 4 show cause notices to Air India NSE's investor base surges ahead of anticipated IPO, driving mkt optimism Net ECB inflows rise to $4.4 billion in April-May 2025, shows RBI data RBI sees tepid demand at overnight VRR Auction ahead of ₹2 trn reversal No need for wheat open market sale as supplies comfortable: Food Secretary Govt proposes to double investment in telecom sector to ₹1 trn by 2030 Income Tax dept working on rules for new direct tax law: CBDT chief Flexible inflation targeting helps anchor inflation expectations: RBI study Former Finance Secretary Ajay Seth appointed as new Irdai chairman Lagarde says ECB in ‘wait-and-see’ mode after holding rates Trump says countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. India’s trade deal with the UK brings big wins like duty-free mangoes and whisky, but deeper concerns lurk beneath. The pact includes major concessions on drug patents, auto imports, and government procurement areas tied to public health, economic sovereignty, and domestic industry. Ajay Srivastava writes, as similar negotiations with the US and EU loom, India must weigh short-term trade gains against long-term strategic costs.