GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-on Drivers: US-Japan Trade Deal, Mixed earnings, Fed independence under political fire, Markets leaned risk-on as Asia-Pacific equities opened higher, buoyed by Trump’s “massive” trade deal with Japan and record highs on Wall Street. Gains in Japan and South Korea signaled upbeat sentiment, with tariffs seen as manageable and investor appetite improving. TODAY’S WATCHLIST- US June Existing Home Sales Data- Earnings: Infosys, Coforge, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories THE BIG STORYUS President Donald Trump announced a “massive” trade deal with Japan, calling it “possibly the biggest deal ever” in a post on Truth Social. The agreement includes 15% “reciprocal” tariffs on Japanese exports to the US and, according to Trump, will see Japan investing $550 billion into the US--with America getting “90% of the profits.” He also said Japan will open up its markets to US goods like cars, trucks, rice, and more, claiming the deal will create “hundreds of thousands of jobs.” Meanwhile, Trump launched a fresh attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, calling him a “numbskull” and blaming him for keeping interest rates too high. Speaking during a joint press conference with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Trump said Powell would be out in eight months, referring to the end of his term in May 2026, though Powell has made clear he will not step down early. Data SpotlightUS crude inventories declined by 577,000 barrels in the week ending 18 July, reversing a prior build and breaking a three-week streak of rising stockpiles. The drawdown hints at a possible shift in supply dynamics and offered mild support to an otherwise pressured oil market. Separately, the Redbook Index, which tracks same-store sales growth, rose 5.1% year-on-year for the week ending 19 July. This reflects solid consumer spending trends, with the latest reading sitting well above the long-term average of 3.71%. Takeaway: The data points to steady retail momentum and potential rebalancing in oil supply. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks ended mixed on earnings drag The S&P 500 ended marginally higher at 6,309.62, setting another record, as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and kept a close watch on US trade talks. General Motors slid 8.1% after reporting a $1 billion tariff-related hit, fuelling concerns over President Trump’s trade policy; Ford shares also slipped 1%. Lockheed Martin plunged nearly 11% as quarterly profits dropped 80%. US Treasury yields fall for third consecutive session Yields continued to decline on Tuesday as the bond market extended its retreat following Monday’s rally. The 10-year US Treasury yield slipped 2.8 bps to 4.342%, while the 30-year yield fell 2.6 bps to 4.9111%. The moves reflected a cautious tone among investors amid ongoing trade tensions and rate uncertainty. US dollar softens as traders await trade deal signals The dollar weakened further on Tuesday as markets remained subdued ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.5% to 97.36, reflecting investor caution amid lack of clarity on trade negotiations. The euro rose 0.49% to $1.1752, while the yen gained 0.56%, pushing the dollar down to 146.56. Crude oil prices fall for third straight session Brent crude oil settled down 0.9% at $68.59 per barrel, while WTI dropped 1.47% to $66.21. Prices fell as ongoing uncertainty over global trade talks weighed on demand expectations. This marked the third consecutive session of losses, with risk sentiment dented by lack of clarity on tariff negotiations. Day’s LedgerEconomic Data: Japan Core CPI US June Existing Home Sales Data US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Data Corporate Action: Earnings: Coforge, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Bajaj Housing Finance,Force Motors, Infosys, Maharashtra Scooters, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, MAS Financial Services, Oracle Financial Services Software, Orbit Exports, PCBL Chemical, Persistent Systems, PNB Gilts, SRF, Supreme Petrochem, Syngene International, Tata Consumer Products, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Aaron Industries to consider bonus share issue Aditya Birla Real to consider fund raising Halder Venture to consider bonus share issue IndusInd Bank to consider fund raising Inox Wind to consider right issue SRF to consider fund raising Tilaknagar Industries to consider fund raising Policy Events: ECB Governing Council Monetary Policy Meeting Begins TICKERS TO WATCH CREDITACCESS GRAMEEN: Net profit plunges nearly 85% YoY due to surge in impairments. DALMIA BHARAT: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT more than doubles YoY to ₹3.93 billion, and to invest ₹32.57 billion to expand capacity in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. DIXON TECHNOLOGIES: Revenue and PAT growth slow to 5-quarter low in Apr-Jun. EXIDE INDUSTRIES: Invests ₹1 billion in lithium-ion battery unit Exide Energy. HERO MOTOCORP: Launches HF Deluxe Pro priced at ₹73,550. HYUNDAI MOTOR: Receives GST demand notice of ₹5.17 billion including penalty. INFOSYS: Inks deal to enhance IT and HR operations for US-based AGCO Corp. INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK: Fined HK$8.5 million by Hong Kong Monetary Authority. IRFC: Apr-Jun net profit rises 10.7% YoY on strong lease income. JINDAL STEEL: Renamed as Jindal Steel, effective Tuesday. JSW INFRASTRUCTURE: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT jumps 31.5% YoY to ₹3.85 billion. KAJARIA CERAMICS: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT rises 21.3% YoY to ₹1.09 billion. KEI INDUSTRIES: Apr-Jun PAT climbs 30.3% YoY to ₹1.96 billion. MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FINANCIAL SERVICES: Net profit up 3% YoY; disbursement growth slows. ONE 97 COMMUNICATIONS: Posts PAT for Apr-Jun, second quarterly profit since listing. VODAFONE IDEA:.SC upholds order rejecting stamp duty penalty against company SHYAM METALICS: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT up nearly 6% YoY to ₹2.92 billion. UNITED BREWERIES: Apr-Jun PAT rises 6% YoY to ₹1.84 billion. VARDHMAN TEXTILES: Apr-Jun yarn production at 68,639 tonnes; sales at 65,329 tonnes. ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES: Apr-Jun consolidated PAT up 3.2% QoQ to ₹1.82 billion. MUST READ What Led Dhankhar To QUIT India needs $2.4 trn to build climate-resilient infra by 2050: World Bank TCS delays onboarding of over 600 experienced executives India-UK FTA nears completion with minimal tariff line exclusions, says MEA Trai meets RBI, Sebi, MHA, Meity, other regulators on curbing spam, fraud Equity MF schemes may soon be allowed to dabble in gold and silver Trump targeting trade loopholes risks 70% of China exports to US EU expects little from China summit, eyes deeper Japan ties Bessent sees no reason for Powell to step down from Fed now BOJ is said to see little impact from election on rate views See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Have a great trading day. India must resist rushing into stablecoins just because the US has acted boldly with the GENIUS Act. The dollar’s digital expansion is strategic, embedding monetary influence globally. But India’s rupee isn’t the dollar—and shouldn’t mimic it blindly. R. Gurumurthy writes istead of rushing, India should build thoughtful frameworks, align with its strengths like UPI and CBDC pilots, and shape global standards. In the digital currency game, sovereignty is the prize—and patience, not panic, may prove our strongest asset.
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