Markets leaned toward a risk-off mood on Friday as tariff tensions escalated after Trump pushed for steep EU import duties. While earnings and economic data were mixed, rising trade concerns drove Treasury yields lower and pressured equities. TODAY’S WATCHLIST - China PBoC Loan Prime Rate - Earnings: UltraTech Cement GLOBAL MOOD: RISK-OFFDrivers: Trade tensions escalate, Mixed US earnings, Treasury yields fell, US Dollar steadies THE BIG STORYTrump is turning up the heat on the EU, demanding tariffs of at least 15–20% in any trade deal, way above the earlier 10% baseline. He’s not budging, even after the EU offered to lower car tariffs--and seems fine keeping auto duties at 25%. It’s his way of testing how far the EU’s willing to bend before the August 1 deadline hits. The talks just got a whole lot more intense. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller, eyeing Powell’s job, backed a July rate cut, calling tariff inflation a one-off blip and urging a shift to neutral policy. But NY Fed’s Williams warned tariff effects could linger till 2026. Their split views have only added more uncertainty to what the Fed does next. Data SpotlightConsumer sentiment in the US improved in July, with the University of Michigan’s index rising 1.8% month-on-month to 61.8—the highest reading since February and in line with market expectations. The data shows a notable easing in concerns around tariff-driven inflation. In a separate release, the Commerce Department reported a rebound in housing activity. June housing starts rose 4.6% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million, slightly ahead of the 1.3 million estimate. Building permits also showed improvement, signaling renewed momentum in residential construction. Takeaway: The data points to stabilising consumer confidence and a modest recovery in the housing sector, despite ongoing trade-related uncertainties. WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT US stocks closed mixed Gains in Utilities, Consumer Goods, and Basic Materials supported the market. Losses in Oil & Gas, Healthcare, and Telecoms sectors dragged indices. Dow Jones fell 142.30 points (0.32%) to 44,342.19. S&P 500 slipped 0.01% after briefly touching a record high. Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.05% to 20,895.66. US Treasury yields fell on trade concerns 10-year yield declined 4 bps to 4.423%. 30-year yield slipped nearly 2 bps to 4.99%. Investors digested soft economic data and tariff escalation. US dollar steadied after intraday dip Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.17% to 98.50 but up 0.57% for the week. Brief selloff reversed on strong economic data, limiting Fed cut bets. DXY had touched a 3-week high near 99.00 earlier in the week. Crude oil prices little changed Brent settled at $69.28, down 0.3%; WTI at $67.34, also down 0.3%. Market weighed mixed US data and EU’s new sanctions on Russia. EU banned petroleum products made from Russian crude, excluding allies. India, the largest buyer of Russian oil, remains a key player. Day’s Ledger Economic Data US June Leading Index Corporate Actions Earnings: AGI Greenpac, Andhra Cements, Bansal Wire Industries, Choice International, CIE Automotive India, CRISIL, DCM Shriram, Dhanlaxmi Bank, ETERNAL, Ganesh Housing Corporation, Globe Civil Projects, Havells India, IDBI Bank, IRB InvIT Fund, Lords Chloro Alkali, Magellanic Cloud, Mahindra Logistics, Oberoi Realty, Paisalo Digital, Parag Milk Foods, PNB Housing Finance, Raghav Productivity Enhancers, Rajratan Global Wire, Sagar Cements, Shrenik, Tokyo Plast International, UCO Bank, UltraTech Cement, Wendt (India) Cyber Media (India) to consider fund raising Equitas Small Finance Bank to consider fund raising Jtekt India to consider fund raising Lloyds Enterprises to consider fund raising Paramount Communications to consider fund raising BEML to consider stock split Policy Events China PBoC Loan Prime Rate Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Tickers to Watch AU SMALL FINANCE BANK: Net profit up 15.6% YoY to ₹5.81 billion. BANDHAN BANK: Net profit plunges 65% YoY to ₹3.72 billion. BEML: Secures ₹1.86 billion bulldozer supply order from Defence Ministry. DR REDDY'S: Receives USFDA Form 483 with 7 observations at Srikakulam plant. HDFC BANK: Net profit up 12.2% YoY to ₹181.6 billion. ICICI BANK: Net profit rises 15.5% YoY to ₹127.7 billion. IRCON INTERNATIONAL: Wins infrastructure contracts worth ₹18.69 billion, including two from MMRDA and ₹7.56 billion contract from Rail Vikas Nigam. L&T FINANCE: Net profit at ₹7.01 billion; retail loan book hits record ₹998.16 billion. MRPL: Swings to a loss as refining margins weaken further. PUNJAB & SIND BANK: Net profit jumps 48.3% YoY to ₹2.69 billion. RBL BANK: Net profit drops 46% to ₹2.0 billion; NII down 13% YoY to ₹14.81 billion. RELIANCE POWER: Reports net profit of ₹447 million vs loss of ₹979 million YoY. RELIANCE RETAIL: Q1 boosted by aggressive store expansion and digital focus. RELIANCE: Mukesh Ambani says firm will continue doubling every 4–5 years. UNION BANK: Net profit grows 11.9% YoY to ₹41.2 billion. YES BANK: Net profit jumps 59.4% YoY to ₹8.01 billion. MUST READ RBI action led to Axis Bank’s NPA surge and technical hit PMO reviews rare earth magnet strategy as China halts exports Jio Financial, Allianz join hands for reinsurance venture in India EU sanctions Nayara, but raise pressure on Reliance’s crude flows NSDL to begin accepting investor orders for IPO next week Pilots urge clarity on crash probe, say rumours hurting morale Tata Motors eyes acquisition of European truckmaker Iveco Modi may visit UK next week to finalise trade pact Trump claims 5 jets shot down in India-Pakistan confrontation See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge. Stay informed, stay ahead. Curious why even star fund managers often lag behind expectations? Krishnadevan V dives into the surprising reality that famed portfolio wizards frequently underperform, dissecting the myths of skill versus luck, hidden costs, and behavioural quirks that can undermine top-tier investing strategies.
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