The Morning Edge: Trump Announces Ceasefire Between Israel And Iran 

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Global Sentiment: Risk-on
Factors:  Israel-Iran Ceasefire 

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
- US March quarter current account balance data
- Fed Chair Powell testimony before Joint Economic Committee
- RBI Monthly Bulletin 

THE BIG STORY
President Donald Trump declared a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, marking a dramatic pause in the 12-day conflict that had pushed West Asia to the brink. The announcement came just moments after both sides threatened renewed strikes. While Iran confirmed its agreement to the truce, Israel has yet to issue a formal response. A senior White House official said the ceasefire was brokered in a call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Israel agreeing to stand down provided Iran halts further attacks. “THE 12 DAY WAR,” Trump posted on Truth Social, “is over—thanks to the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence of both nations.”

On the economic front, dovish signals emerged from the Federal Reserve as two influential officials—Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman—floated the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. Their remarks, following Governor Christopher Waller’s comments on Friday, suggest growing openness within the Fed to policy easing, provided inflation remains in check. The shift comes amid a fragile global backdrop shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and softening economic indicators.

DATA
US existing home sales unexpectedly rose by 0.8% in May to an annualised rate of 4.03 million units, defying forecasts for a decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, year-over-year sales were still down 0.7%, reflecting persistent headwinds from elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures that continue to weigh on overall housing market momentum. Meanwhile, US business activity slowed slightly in June as the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 from 53.0 in May. Rising input costs driven by President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs suggest inflation could accelerate in the latter half of the year.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks closed sharply higher on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices buoyed investor sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each climbed 0.9%, while the Dow Jones rose 374 points. Energy shares fell, with ExxonMobil and Chevron down 2.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Tech led gains, with Tesla surging 8.2% after unveiling its first fleet of driverless taxis, and AMD rising 1% following a broker upgrade. US stock futures rose further on today after President Trump announced a ceasefire timeline between Israel and Iran, referring to the hostilities as “The 12-Day War,” helping ease market jitters after the US formally entered the conflict with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

US Treasury yields decreased on Monday, with the 10-year note falling to 4.32%, its lowest level since early May as geopolitical concerns diminished. Market nerves over a major Iranian retaliation and possible oil supply disruptions faded. The drop in yields was also supported by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman, who said she may back a rate cut in July if inflation shows further signs of slowing. Her remarks echoed those of Governor Waller last week, reinforcing expectations of policy easing ahead.

The US dollar fell on Monday as dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts ahead. Bowman suggested the Fed should consider easing policy soon, adding to market bets already shaped by cooling inflation data. The dollar index slipped 0.32% to 98.45 after briefly touching 99.42, its highest since May 30. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions also weighed on the greenback, with markets anticipating a restrained response from Iran after recent US airstrikes. The euro gained 0.39% to $1.1567.

Brent crude oil prices plunged over 7% on Monday, with Brent and WTI both shedding $5.53 per barrel, as fears of a major supply disruption eased. Brent settled at $71.48 a barrel, while US WTI closed at $68.51. The sharp decline followed Iran’s decision to target a US military base in Qatar rather than interfere with vital oil and gas tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The market interpreted this shift as a sign that Iran was avoiding escalation that could threaten global energy flows.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data:

• German Ifo June Business Climate Index 
• US March quarter current account balance data

Corporate Actions

• Astec LifeSciences to consider fund raising
• Mangal Credit and Fincorp to consider fund raising
• Scoda Tubes to financial results

Policy Events

• Fed Chair Powell testimony before Joint Economic Committee
• BoE Gov Bailey speaks
• ECB President Lagarde speaks 

TICKERS

• Adani Electricity buys back $49.5 million of 2030 dollar bonds; principal now at $830.5 million.
• Devyani International to raise stake in Sky Gate Hospitality to 86.13% for up to ₹1.06 billion.
• ITI gets final ₹250 million tranche from C-DOT, completes ₹2 billion land deal.
• JSW Energy settles KSK Mahanadi debt; awaits NCLT nod to close ₹160.84 billion acquisition.
• KPIT Technologies flags slow deal ramp-up, sees soft Q1; Caresoft acquisition to close by Jun-end.
• Sona BLW names Jeffrey Mark Overly as chairperson; Priya Sachdev Kapur joins board.
• Tata Motors to open Harrier.ev bookings from Jul. 2; prices start at ₹2.1 million.

MUST READ

• Iran targets US military bases in Qatar; India issues advisory to citizens
• Brent crude may cross $110 if Hormuz oil flow halves: Goldman Sachs
• NSO to launch household income survey from Feb 2026: Statistics minister
• Oman to become 1st Gulf state to levy income tax, aims to cut oil reliance
• Geopolitical jitters hit crypto: Bitcoin breaks $100k, Ethereum below $2.5k
• Adani plans ₹350 billion more capex in Navi Mumbai airport by FY30
• PSBs' loan growth to outpace private banks in FY26: Fitch Ratings
• Nagel says ECB can’t commit on rates given high uncertainty
• Fed’s Bowman says ‘time has come’ to reform key capital rule
• Lagarde reiterates ECB well placed but monitoring oil swings
• Germany against suspending EU deal with Israel, official says