The Morning Edge: Trump, Putin Agree To Limited Ceasefire In Ukraine

In a significant but limited diplomatic breakthrough, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Tuesday to temporarily halt attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, stopping short of endorsing the full 30-day ceasefire proposed by US President Donald Trump as a step toward lasting peace. Ukraine has backed the scaled-back agreement, which calls for a month-long pause in targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, though experts suggest Putin’s move may be a tactical delay as Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine. Following a lengthy call between Trump and Putin, the White House announced that broader peace talks would begin immediately, focusing on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea and laying the groundwork for a comprehensive peace deal. The Kremlin confirmed that Putin ordered Russian forces to cease attacks on energy sites after his conversation with Trump, marking a tentative step toward de-escalation. 

Data
US single-family homebuilding rebounded strongly in February, with starts surging 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.108 million units, according to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau. However, the recovery faces headwinds as rising raw material prices, driven by tariffs, threaten to undermine the housing market and broader manufacturing sector. On a year-over-year basis, housing starts fell 2.3%, highlighting lingering challenges despite the monthly uptick.

Meanwhile, US import prices unexpectedly rose by 0.4% in February, matching January’s upwardly revised gain, as higher costs for consumer goods added to inflationary pressures, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the past 12 months, import prices increased by 2.0%, up from 1.8% in January, signalling potential hurdles for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. Together, the data points underscore a mixed economic landscape, with pockets of recovery tempered by persistent cost pressures and policy uncertainties.

Markets
Overnight
US stocks indices retreated on Tuesday, ending a two-day winning streak as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and assessed the potential fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Fed, set to release its policy statement and updated economic projections on Wednesday, is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, leaving markets focused on any signals about future rate cuts. Tech stocks led the losses, with Alphabet falling 2.2% after announcing its $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz. Nvidia dropped 3.35% despite CEO Jensen Huang’s optimism about the company’s AI strategy. Tesla tumbled 5.34% after RBC slashed its price target to $120 from $320, citing lower expectations for its full self-driving and robotaxi businesses. The stock is now down nearly 45% this year.

US Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday as traders positioned for a potentially dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the conclusion of the central bank’s policy meeting on Wednesday. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes fell 1.9 basis points to 4.287%, while the 30-year bond yield edged down 1 basis point to 4.589%. Similarly, the 2-year note yield, which closely tracks Fed rate expectations, dropped 1.1 basis points to 4.042%, reflecting market anticipation of a cautious approach from the Fed amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

The US dollar softened on Tuesday, with the dollar index—which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies—falling 0.22% to 103.23, as the euro gained 0.23% to $1.0947 following Germany’s debt fix. Meanwhile, the dollar edged up 0.06% against the yen to 149.3, reflecting a mixed performance as markets weighed global economic developments and central bank policies. The moves highlight shifting currency dynamics amid evolving fiscal and monetary landscapes.

Brent crude oil prices dipped on Tuesday as progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks eased some supply concerns, offsetting ongoing instability in the Middle East. Brent crude settled at $70.56 per barrel, down 0.72% on the day, after Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to a limited 30-day ceasefire targeting energy and infrastructure in Ukraine. The White House announced that broader peace negotiations will begin "immediately," reducing fears of prolonged disruptions in the region. The development tempered earlier worries about Middle East tensions, highlighting the delicate balance driving oil markets.

Day’s Ledger 

Economic Data:
- Japan February Trade Data
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data
- US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories

Corporate Actions:
 - Ksolves India board to consider dividend
 - Mishra Dhatu Nigam board to consider dividend
 - REC board to consider dividend
 - Indian Overseas Bank board to discuss fundraising plans
 - NHPC board to discuss fundraising plans
 - Dhanlaxmi Bank board to discuss fundraising plans
 - GVP Infotech board to discuss fundraising plans
 - Tata Motors board to discuss fundraising plans

Policy:
- Bank of Japan policy meeting outcome
- US FOMC policy meeting outcome
- European Central Bank (ECB) Speeches:
  -Vice President Luis de Guindos
  - Executive Board Member Frank Elderson

Tickers

• BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION has entered into Memorandum of Understanding with BluJ Aerospace, ANERT, the Government of Kerala, and Cochin International Airport (CIAL) to develop the first hydrogen-fuelled Vertical Take-off and Landing aircraft ecosystem globally.
• BOMBAY BURMAH TRADING Sells Aralvaimozhi Land for ₹364.7 million.
• BRIGADE GROUP and Gruhas launch ₹2 billion earth fund for proptech and sustainability.
• COAL INDIA, Non-Ferrous Materials Tech Centre partner for critical minerals development.
• DR REDDY’S LABORATORIES announced that the USFDA has accepted a 351(k) Biologic License Application (BLA) submission for AVT03, developed by Alvotech.
• ENGINEERS INDIA wins ₹2.53 billion order from Numaligarh Refinery for polypropylene unit.
• GR INFRAPROJECTS has received a Letter of Acceptance from the NHAI for a project worth ₹42.63 billion.
• India Ratings upgrades BLUE DART’s long-term rating to ‘IND AA+’ with stable outlook.
• LEMON TREE HOTELS signs licence agreement for 50-room hotel in Bokaro, Jharkhand.
• MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA to acquire 57% stake in Mahindra BT Investment for $14.29 million.
• SUN PHARMA’s subsidiary Taro completes acquisition of Antibe Therapeutics for CAD 4.5 million.
• TATA MOTORS to raise passenger vehicle prices from April to offset rising costs.

Must Read

• Allianz SE eyes partnership with Jio Financial after ending 24-year tie-up with Bajaj
• Bajaj Finserv to explore listing of insurance firms
• BJP government is systematically undermining MGNREGS: Sonia Gandhi
• Indian government recommends 12% temporary tax on some steel products
• IndusInd International to list insurance units of Reliance Capital in 2-3 years
• LIC to buy stake in a health insurer before March 31: CEO
• Nvidia announces Blackwell Ultra and Rubin AI chips
• Promoters will infuse capital into IndusInd Bank if needed: Ashok Hinduja
• SEBI yet to clear HDB, Hero FinCorp IPOs; talk of breach of some rules
• Trump and Putin agree on ‘energy and infrastructure ceasefire’ as step to Ukraine peace deal
• Vodafone Idea says in talks with satcom players; will update at appropriate time

Daily Mantra
The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark.