QUICK SNAPSHOT
Global Sentiment: Risk-off
Factors:  Trade talks stalled, Geopolitical tension

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - US FOMC meeting outcome
 - India Union Cabinet Meeting

THE BIG STORY
The Indian Armed Forces launched “Operation Sindoor” in the early hours of Wednesday, targeting terror infrastructure deep within Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

The strikes come just days after the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed the lives of 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national. Intelligence had traced the origin of the attack to terror camps operating across the border.

The Ministry of Defence confirmed that nine key locations were struck during the operation. These included camps used for recruiting, training, and directing terrorist operations against India. Describing the action as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” the ministry emphasized that Indian forces took care not to hit Pakistani military assets.

The strikes are expected to strain India-Pakistan relations further.

DATA
The US trade deficit widened sharply in March, soaring 14% to an all-time high of $140.5 billion as companies rushed to import goods ahead of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The surge in imports dragged first-quarter GDP into negative territory for the first time in three years, according to the Commerce Department. Total imports jumped 4.4% to a record $419.0 billion, led by a $22.5 billion spike in consumer goods, particularly pharmaceuticals from Ireland as well as strong demand for capital goods and autos. Goods imports alone hit a record $346.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports of industrial supplies fell $10.7 billion, with notable declines in finished metal shapes and non-monetary gold.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks indices fell on Tuesday as investor impatience over stalled trade deals combined with caution ahead of a key Federal Reserve update. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 389.83 points, or 0.95%, while the S&P 500 shed 0.77% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.87%. Tesla shares slid 1.8% after April sales in the UK and Germany hit a two-year low, despite rising EV demand overall. Goldman Sachs also fell 1.8%, weighing on the Dow, while tech giants Nvidia and Meta Platforms closed in the red. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded modestly after Monday’s steep losses.

US Treasury yields declined across the curve Tuesday, with the 10-year note dropping 3.5 basis points to 4.308% following a well-bid auction that demonstrated sustained appetite for US government debt. The short end saw sharper moves, as the 2-year yield fell 4.6 basis point to 3.795% ahead of the Fed's policy decision, while the 30-year bond yield edged down 1.8bps to 4.811%. The parallel shift lower reflects both solid demand for haven assets and positioning for potential dovish signals from policymakers.

The US dollar declined across the board on Tuesday as scepticism grew over the progress of President Donald Trump’s trade agreements, raising investor concerns. Meanwhile, the euro extended its advance after Germany’s parliament elected conservative leader Friedrich Merz as chancellor. The dollar index dropped 0.62% to 99.19. The euro climbed 0.57% to $1.1378, while the dollar fell 0.91% against the Japanese yen to 142.39. Sterling rose 0.64% to $1.3376, and the Canadian dollar strengthened 0.43% to C$1.38 per US dollar. 

Brent crude oil prices surged on Tuesday, rebounding sharply from four-year lows as improving demand signals from Europe and China, a drop in US output, and heightened Middle East tensions lifted sentiment. Brent crude settled $1.92, or 3.2%, higher at $62.15 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $1.96, or 3.4%, to close at $59.09. Bargain-hunting also supported the recovery after Monday’s steep losses.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data:

• US EIA weekly petroleum status report
• US MBA mortgage applications survey

Corporate Actions:

• Jan-Mar Earnings: Coal India,Punjab National Bank, Star Housing Finance, APL Apollo Tubes, Hindustan Composites, Housing & Urban Development Corp, RattanIndia Power, Symphony, BFL Asset Finvest, IFGL Refractories, Route Mobile, Tata Chemicals, Bharat Seats, Indus Infra Trust, Sapphire Foods India, Transgene Biotek, Blue Star, Kamdhenu, Satin Creditcare Network, Craftsman Automation, United Breweries, Dabur India, Lloyds Engineering Works, Man Industries (India), Voltas, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers, Wonderla Holidays, Goa Carbon, MRF, Somany Ceramics, GTL, Sonata Software, Gujarat Containers, Niva Bupa Health Insurance Co,    Standard Surfactants    
• Blue Cloud to Consider Fund Raising
• Punjab National Bank to Consider Raising of Fund
• Sah Polymers to Consider Issue of Equity Shares
• Yamini Investments to Consider Rights Issue of Equity Shares

Policy Events

• India Union Cabinet Meeting
• US Interest Rate Decision
• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• ECB Financial Stability Review  
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr speaks

TICKERS

• GP PETROLEUMS entered joint venture with West Coast Oils LLP to manufacture and trade specialty bitumen products and related commodities.
• GUJARAT MINERAL DEVELOPMENT CORP signed a 40-year supply agreement with City Gold Pipes consortium for 150 million tonnes of limestone from Lakhpat Punrajpur Mine, Gujarat.
• NLC INDIA signed MoU with IREL (INDIA) to jointly develop critical mineral assets, including rare earth elements, through domestic or international sourcing or acquisition.
• PRESTIGE ESTATES hits ₹30 billion in sales within a week of NCR debut
• SHRIRAM FINANCE: board approved acquisition of 3.166 million shares in Shriram Overseas Investments from SIHPL for ₹500 million at ₹158.28 per share.
• SUN PHARMA names Jayashree Satagopan as CFO, effective Jul. 1
• VEDANT FASHIONS March quarter PAT falls 13% YoY; FY25 profit slips despite higher revenue
• YES BANK denies reports of stake sale to Sumitomo Mitsui as speculative

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