The Morning Edge: Global Markets Reel as Trump Unleashes "Worst-Case Scenario" Trade War

President Trump detonated an economic bombshell Wednesday, announcing sweeping tariffs that sent shockwaves through global markets and threatened to upend decades of trade liberalization. The new measures impose:

• 10% baseline tariff on all US imports
• Higher targeted duties on major trading partners (e.g., 34% on China, 20% on EU)

Analysts warned the move—dubbed a "worst-case scenario"—could simultaneously slow growth, spike inflation, and crush corporate earnings. The policies effectively rewire global commerce, retaliating against what Trump called "friends worse than foes" in trade while reversing post-WWII economic norms. With trading partners already preparing counter-tariffs on US goods, consumers face price hikes across everything from bicycles to wine—potentially reshaping spending patterns and supply chains worldwide.

Data
US economic data delivered conflicting signals on Wednesday, with private payrolls beating expectations while underlying trends pointed to slowing momentum. Employers added 155,000 jobs in March, rebounding from February's upwardly revised 84,000 gains. While the hiring spread across all sectors -- 24,000 in goods-producing and 132,000 in services - economists noted the three-month average still reflects a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, factory orders rose 0.6% in February (above the 0.5% consensus), building on January's upwardly revised 1.8% surge, as businesses appeared to stockpile ahead of anticipated tariffs. The 1.5% annual growth in manufacturing demand suggests temporary strength rather than sustained revival, with trade policies clouding the outlook. 

Markets
Overnight
US stocks staged a rollercoaster session Wednesday, with major indexes swinging from losses to gains as traders made last-minute bets before President Trump's tariff announcement. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ultimately closed higher, buoyed by big tech - Tesla surged 5.3% amid reports Elon Musk may exit his government role, while Amazon gained 2% on TikTok bid rumours. But the relief proved fleeting. After-hours, S&P futures plunged 1.6% and Nasdaq futures tumbled 2.4% as Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs, signalling Thursday's open could be brutal. The dramatic reversal highlights how quickly trade winds can shift markets - and why investors remain on edge.

US Treasury yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed above 4.2% on Wednesday, rebounding from its lowest level since October 18, as markets reacted to President Donald Trump's tariff announcement. Trump outlined a 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for key trade partners—34% for China, 20% for Europe, and 24% for Japan—citing the need to counter foreign tariffs and trade barriers.

The US dollar weakened against the yen, while the euro held onto gains on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced new global reciprocal tariffs, escalating trade tensions. Trump detailed a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, with some duties reaching as high as 49%. Following his remarks, the dollar reversed earlier gains, slipping 0.2% against the yen to 149.255. The euro initially surged over 1% against the dollar before settling 0.3% higher at $1.0828. The moves accelerated after Trump confirmed 25% auto tariffs, cementing the most aggressive US trade policy shift in decades.

Brent crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with US crude futures dropping over 2% to $69.73 a barrel, as markets priced in weaker global growth prospects following President Trump's sweeping tariff announcements. The selloff occurred despite a key exemption—the White House confirmed oil, gas, and refined product imports would avoid new levies, sparing the energy sector from immediate supply chain disruptions. The reprieve offers little comfort to an industry still grappling with trade uncertainty. While the exemption prevents cost spikes for Canadian crude shipments to Midwest refineries and European fuel imports to the East Coast, broader demand concerns and retaliatory trade measures continue to weigh on prices.

Day’s Ledger
Economic Data:

• China March Caixin Services PMI
• US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Data
• US Februaray Trade Data
• US March S&P Global Composite PMI
• US March ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Data

Corporate Actions:

• Fervent Synergies board to consider preferential issue of shares
• Indrayani Biotech board to consider right issue of equity shares 
• Parag Milk Foods board to consider right issue of equity shares
• POCL Enterprises  board to consider preferential issue of shares
• Remsons Industries  board to consider preferential issue of shares

Policy:

• ECB's De Guindos Speaks
• ECB's Schnabel Speaks
• OPEC Meeting

Tickers

• ALLCARGO LOGISTICS’s subsidiary ECUHold NV acquired additional 10% in ECU Worldwide (Japan) for $0.22 million.
• AUTHUM INVESTMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE selected as resolution applicant for Vas Infrastructure acquisition worth ₹860.4 million.
• BHARAT ELECTRONICS signed ₹5.93 billion contract with Indian Air Force for Akash Missile System maintenance.
• BOROSIL board approved ₹400 million investment in Rajasthan for a stainless-steel vacuum flask unit.
• ELPRO INTERNATIONAL sold remaining 1.63 crore shares in PNB MetLife for ₹1.34 billion.
• FORTIS HEALTHCARE won Fortis Marks trademarks auction confirmed by Delhi High Court.
• GE POWER INDIA received ₹382 million order from NTPC for Talcher site generator parts supply.
• HDFC BANK informed that SEBI issued an administrative warning over alleged non-compliance in custodian activities.
• HINDUSTAN COPPER signed agreement with CODELCO for joint mining exploration and beneficiation activities.
• INTERARCH BUILDING PRODUCTS received ₹3 billion order for 30,000 MT pre-engineered steel building systems.
• KIRLOSKAR OIL ENGINES received ₹2.7 billion order from Indian Navy for 6MW marine diesel engine under Make-I scheme.
• LUPIN’s subsidiary Lupin Healthcare (UK) acquired Renascience Pharma (UK) for GBP 12.3 million.
• MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS chosen for ₹12 billion redevelopment of two Lokhandwala residential societies, Mumbai.
• MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA plans to increase car prices across 7 models from April 8.
• PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK’s global advances jump 13.6% to ₹11.17 trillion as  on Mar 31
• SIMPLEX INFRASTRUCTURE entered one-time settlement with 6.27% of 14.56% non-assignee lenders.
• SOUTH INDIAN BANK’s gross advances jump 9.97% to ₹884.47 billion as on Mar 31.
• VVIP INFRATECH secured ₹4.14 billion infrastructure contracts from Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.

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Daily Mantra
Success is never final, failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts.  - John Wooden