The Morning Edge: Euro And Gold Emerge As Safe Havens Amid Tariff Turmoil

QUICK SNAPSHOT
Global Sentiment: Risk-off
Factors: Tariffs, dollar selloff, haven bid in euro and gold

TODAY’S WATCHLIST

• OPEC’s April oil market report
• US March consumer inflation expectations
• Richmond Fed President and Fed Governor speeches
• Trump’s bilateral with El Salvador President

THE BIG STORY
As the latest round of tariff salvos from Washington sends tremors through global markets, investors are swiftly reshuffling their portfolios—and two clear safe havens have emerged: the euro and gold. In a surprising twist, the euro has surged to a three-year high against the dollar, defying earlier expectations and highlighting Europe’s relative stability amid the escalating trade conflict. Since April 1, just a day before President Trump rolled out a fresh wave of 10% baseline tariffs on global imports—alongside a 20% duty specifically targeting the EU—the single currency has gained over 5% against the dollar. The rally is being fuelled by a broad move away from US assets, as jittery global investors repatriate funds to perceived safe shores, giving the euro a fresh tailwind.

Meanwhile, gold is enjoying its own moment in the spotlight, breaking past the $3,200-per-ounce mark for the first time on Friday and notching yet another record high at $3,245.28. The yellow metal has become the go-to refuge for investors seeking shelter from the storm, driven not just by deepening US-China tensions but also by a rapidly weakening dollar, now hovering near a three-year low. With 23 all-time highs already logged this year—11 of them above the $3,000 threshold—bullion also posted its biggest quarterly gain since September 1986 in January-March 2025. As policy uncertainty clouds the global outlook, both the euro and gold are proving to be the assets of choice for those navigating increasingly choppy waters.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks surged on Friday, lifted by strong earnings from major banks and reassurances from Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who hinted at possible market support if needed. The Nasdaq led gains with a 2.06% jump, while the Dow and S&P 500 rose 1.56% and 1.81% respectively, shrugging off tariff anxieties.

Yields on the 10-year US Treasury posted their steepest weekly gain since 2001, driven by speculation that China may scale back Treasury holdings. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued its descent, with losses accelerating against the euro and Swiss franc.

Brent crude oil bounced back to $64.76 per barrel following reassurances from the White House that talks with China remained on track, helping markets digest Thursday’s sharp drop.

DAY’S LEDGER
Economic Data

• OPEC April monthly oil market report
• US March Consumer Inflation Expectations

Corporate Actions

• Godha Cabcon to consider business matters
• Viji Finance Ltd results

Policy Events

• US Federal Reserve Richmond President speech
• US Fed Governor speech
• Trump meets Salvadoran President

TICKERS

• 360 ONE WAM to mull ₹2.50 billion NCD issuance on April 23
• Gulf Oil Lubricants eyes ₹5 billion EV charger biz in 4–5 years
• HCL Tech launches Agentic AI platform with Google Cloud
• Home First Finance raises ₹12.50 billion via QIP at ₹970/share
• ICICI Bank to consider bond issuance and buyback on April 19
• IFCI wins nod for insolvency case against Supertech’s R.K. Arora
• IndusInd Bank receives PwC review on derivatives; no blame assigned
• IRCON wins ₹1.28 billion rail signalling contract
• Jyothy Labs to exit Ahmedabad laundry ops post-April
• NBCC India sells 560 flats in Greater Noida for ₹11.53 billion
• NTPC plans 30 GW new coal capacity by 2032
• Patanjali Foods in talks to acquire India Transact
• SBI Capital Markets sees exits amid restructuring
• Vedanta to legally challenge ₹711.7 million fly ash penalty
• Zydus Lifesciences gets USFDA nod for Deflazacort tablets in Italy

MUST READ

• RBI repo rate cut impact: SBI, Bank of India cut FD rates on select tenors
  
• Factory output growth slows to a six-month low of 2.9% in February with deceleration across sectors
  
• Equity mutual fund inflows drop 14.4% in March: AMFI data
  
• Govt delays security testing requirements for broadband gears amid US pressure
  
• Data protection law provision weakens RTI: Opp; Vaishnaw says disclosures won’t be hit
  
• Trade surplus result of structural issues in US economy: China
  
• HDFC Capital creates ₹15 bln platform with Eldeco, aims ₹110 bln revenue
  
• UPI outages lasted 1,000 minutes cumulatively over five years, shows data
  
• India unlikely to raise dispute against US at WTO over reciprocal tariff
  
• UK reduces import tariffs on everyday essentials in a bid to boost growth
  
• At least 32 people killed in Russian ballistic missile attack on Sumy
  
• India's healthcare expenditure expected to surge from 3.3% to 5% of its GDP by 2030: CareEdge
  
• Hero Motocorp retains top slot in two-wheeler space in FY25; ends year with 29 pc market share
  
• BP bets on NEC-25 for gas surge, credits PM Modi's reforms
  
• US to launch ‘separate tariffs’ on smartphones, computers, semiconductors imports, says Commerce Secretary