The numbers don’t lie: America’s financial health is deteriorating fast. Moody’s warned this week that the US faces a multi-year decline in fiscal strength, with budget deficits ballooning and debt becoming increasingly unaffordable. The sobering report projects debt-to-GDP will soar to 130% by 2035 up from 100% in 2025, while interest payments could eat up 30% of government revenue – triple 2021’s levels.

What makes this especially alarming? The US is now skating on thin ice with its last remaining AAA credit rating. Moody’s – the final holdout among major agencies – admits even in a best-case scenario, America’s debt outlook looks worse than other top-rated nations. Fitch downgraded the US sovereign rating to AA+ from AAA in 2023, following S&P's 2011 move, citing fiscal deterioration and recurring debt ceiling standoffs that jeopardise the government's ability to meet its obligations. And with President Trump’s new tariffs rattling markets and fuelling inflation fears, the dollar’s global dominance is now doing heavy lifting to preserve confidence. One thing’s clear: investors can’t count on business as usual.

Data
US consumer confidence has collapsed to its weakest level since January 2021, with the Conference Board's index plunging 7.2 points to 92.9 in March - marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and undershooting economists' 94.0 forecast. The alarming drop, mirroring the University of Michigan's sentiment gauge, reflects growing household fears about recession risks and tariff-driven inflation, with respondents increasingly citing trade policy concerns in open-ended survey responses. Most worryingly, the expectations component cratered to a 12-year low, dipping below the threshold that typically signals impending economic contraction. This dramatic erosion of confidence - which has now wiped out all post-election gains - suggests Trump's trade wars may be starting to bite Main Street even before most tariffs take full effect.

Markets
Overnight
US stocks closed modestly higher on Tuesday as investors balanced weakening consumer confidence against hopes for a softer trade policy approach from the Trump administration. The consumer sentiment index fell to 92.9 in March - its lowest reading since February 2021 - while Moody's warned of deteriorating US fiscal strength due to widening deficits. Tech stocks showed divergence, with Apple gaining 1.4% but Nvidia slipping 0.6%, while KB Home plunged over 6% after slashing its revenue outlook, reflecting growing sector-specific pressures. The mixed performance suggests markets remain cautious as they await clarity on both economic direction and potential policy shifts.

US Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday as investors weighed potential tariff impacts on Fed policy and digested mixed signals from central bank officials. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 4.315%, with a brief dip following a $69 billion two-year note auction. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler maintained that policy remains restrictive but acknowledged slowing progress on inflation, calling recent goods price increases "unhelpful." New York Fed President John Williams highlighted "heightened uncertainty" among businesses and households, echoing Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic's view that only one 25-basis-point cut may come this year.

The US dollar index dipped 0.1% to 104.19 after reaching a three-week high of 104.46, as markets reassessed tariff expectations. The euro edged down 0.06% to $1.0793, while the dollar weakened more significantly against the yen, falling 0.54% to 149.88 amid shifting currency dynamics. The modest pullback suggests markets may be reassessing the potential economic impact of looming trade measures.

Brent crude oil prices lost early gains after the US reached separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to secure safe navigation in the Black Sea and impose a mutual ban on attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. The diplomatic move eased supply concerns, dampening the bullish momentum in crude markets. Brent held steady at $73.02, up just 0.03%. Traders reassessed risk premiums tied to geopolitical tensions, shifting focus to broader economic signals and demand forecasts.

Day’s Ledger
Economic Data:
•    US February Durable Goods Orders Data
•    US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data

Corporate Actions:
•    Integra Essentia board to discuss fundraising plans
•    MSTC board to consider dividend

Policy:
•    FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks  
•    Finance Ministry, RBI to discuss the H1 borrowing plan
•    RBI Governor Malhotra to speak at an event organised by the Financial Action Task Force.

Tickers

• ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL invested ₹0.4 billion in Aditya Birla Capital Digital via rights issue.
• ARVIND SMARTSPACES sold entire inventory (200 units worth ₹1.80 billion) of Arvind The Park, Devanahalli, Bengaluru.
• ASAHI INDIA commenced commercial operations at new float glass facility in Soniyana, Rajasthan.
• ASHOKA BUILDCON informed that CCI approved Epic Concesiones 2's acquisition of 100% stake in 11 SPVs owned by Ashoka Concessions and Ashoka Buildcon.
• FEDERAL BANK approved binding MoU to acquire 4% stake in AFLIC from Ageas, raising its total stake to 30%.
• HCL TECHNOLOGIES launched HCLTech Insight, an AI-powered repeatable industry solution for advanced analytics in manufacturing.
• INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK received ₹5.59 billion IT demand for AY 2023–24; will file appeal. No impact on financials or operations.
• INDIAN RAILWAY FINANCE CORPORATION signed loan agreement with NTPC Renewable Energy for ₹50 billion rupee term loan.
• INDIAN RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AGENCY (IREDA) board approved borrowing of up to ₹308 billion for FY26. Raised ₹9.10 billion via Tier-II bonds at 7.74% coupon.
• JINDAL STAINLESS acquired 5.03% in Mynd Solutions for ₹1.03 billion. Combined stake with subsidiary now totals 9.62%.
• MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA received a draft order from the Income Tax department, for FY22, disallowing expenses of ₹29.66 billion. 
• NCC received two advance work orders worth ₹108.05 billion from BSNL for BharatNet network work.
• OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION to invest ₹33 billion in ONGC Green via rights issue; ₹15 billion in Beas Rovuma Energy Mozambique via ONGC Videsh.
• PRISM JOHNSON declared preferred bidder for limestone blocks in MP
• REDINGTON received ₹1.75 billion IT demand order. No material financial impact expected.
• SIEMENS INDIA informed that NCLT Mumbai approved demerger of energy business into SIEMENS ENERGY INDIA under sanctioned Scheme of Arrangement.
• SIS Ltd board approved buyback of 3.71 million shares (2.57%) for ₹1.5 billion at ₹404 per share.
• TVS MOTOR’s subsidiary to acquire 8.26% stake in GO Corporation, Switzerland for CHF 500,000 from existing shareholder.
• WAAREE RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES received LOA for ₹2.32 billion solar EPC project .
• WELSPUN ENTERPRISES’ subsidiary won ₹3.28 billion order from BMC for Haji Ali Storm Water Pumping Station upgrade and 15 years of O&M.

Must Read

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• India slaps Samsung with tax demand of $601 million for telecom imports
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• New I-T Bill may get House nod in monsoon session
• Adani Group submits $2.4-2.6 billion bid for Jaiprakash Associates in insolvency process
• India’s software market to hit $100 billion by 2035, growing 5X: Report
• Chinese EV giant BYD outpaces Tesla with annual sales of more than $100 billion
• Russia, Ukraine agree to truce at sea and ban on energy attacks
• Australia Unveils Tax Cut, Spending Boost in Budget
• Canada freezes rebate payments to Tesla, bans it from future rebate programs due to tariffs

Daily Mantra
If you want to succeed you should strike out on new paths, rather than travel the worn paths of accepted success.  - John D. Rockefeller